Sensex Today Live: Technical setup indicates a cautious start
"Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautiously negative note, with Gift Nifty trading at 23,130, down by 40points, as Asia-Pacific markets recovered broadly from the previous session's decline amid improving sentiment following signs of a pause in Israel-Iran hostilities. However, elevated volatility and global uncertainty are likely to keep traders cautious.
In the previous session, the Nifty 50 started the week on a weak note and declined 1 percent to close at a two-month low, extending its corrective phase for another session. The index remained under pressure as it closed below the lower Bollinger Band and continued to trade below all key moving averages, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment. The broader structure remains weak, though the index is approaching a crucial support zone near 23,000.
The 23,000 level remains the immediate and crucial support for the index. A decisive breach below this level may intensify selling pressure and drag the index toward 22,700. On the upside, 23,300 is likely to act as the first resistance level, while a sustained move above this zone could trigger a recovery toward 23,500–23,600.
Derivatives data continues to indicate a cautious undertone. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) declined to 0.78 from 0.83 in the previous session, reflecting reduced put writing activity and a relatively bearish stance among market participants. While the PCR remains above the critical 0.70 mark, the declining trend suggests weakening bullish conviction.
The India VIX, the market's fear gauge, surged 7.85 percent to 17.03, indicating rising uncertainty and discomfort among bulls. A sustained move above the 18 level could further increase volatility and weigh on market sentiment, while a decline below 16 would be needed to improve confidence.
Option chain positioning indicates immediate support around the 23,000 strike, while aggressive call writing near the 23,300–23,500 zone is likely to act as a significant hurdle for any recovery attempt. This setup reinforces the current negative bias unless key resistance levels are decisively crossed.
In terms of price structure, Nifty continues to maintain a lower high-lower low formation, indicating that bears remain firmly in control. The broader trend remains negative, and any pullback is likely to face resistance at higher levels until stronger reversal signals emerge.
Bank Nifty snapped its four-session winning streak and ended 0.8 percent lower. The index formed a bullish candle with a long upper wick, indicating profit booking at higher levels. It slipped below its short-term moving averages and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April correction, reflecting weakening momentum.
The RSI for Bank Nifty stood at 46.6 and is nearing a negative crossover, while the MACD remained above the reference line despite fading green histogram bars. These indicators suggest that bullish momentum is losing strength and consolidation with a negative bias may continue in the near term. Immediate support is placed near 53,700, while resistance is seen around 55,000.
Overall, the technical setup indicates a cautious start to the session. While global sentiment has improved marginally, the domestic market structure remains weak with elevated volatility and bearish momentum indicators. The immediate trading range for Nifty is seen between 23,000 and 23,300, and a decisive move beyond either side is likely to determine the next directional trend,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.