Birth rate in US is falling, and a new research paper links it to iPhones; says: Effects imply that diffusion of iPhone deepened decline in …

A new research paper is offering an unusual explanation for part of the decline in US birth rates: the iPhone. Researchers found that the spread of Apple's smartphone may have played a significant role in reducing fertility rates, especially among teenagers and young adults. The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), examined how the rollout of the iPhone after its 2007 launch affected birth rates across different parts of the United States. According to the researchers, areas that gained access to the iPhone earlier saw larger declines in births than areas where access arrived later.


“These cohort effects imply that the diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births among women under 30 while suppressing the rise in births among older women. Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15–44,” the study states.

Researchers link iPhone rollout to falling birth rates

The study is titled “IS THE IPHONE BIRTH CONTROL? CAUSAL EVIDENCE FROM AT&T’S 2007–2011 CARRIER MONOPOLY”. It used the fact that the iPhone was available exclusively through AT&T in the US from 2007 to 2011. Because AT&T's network coverage varied across counties, researchers were able to compare birth-rate trends in areas with different levels of iPhone access.


The paper concluded that "the diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births." Researchers estimated that the spread of the device explains between 33% and 52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15 to 44 during the 2007-2011 period.


The effects were strongest among younger women. According to the study, access to the iPhone reduced births among women aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 24, age groups that have seen some of the sharpest fertility declines in recent decades.

Why researchers think smartphones may be behind declining birth rate

The researchers do not argue that the iPhone itself directly caused people to stop having children. Instead, they suggest that smartphones changed how people spend their time and interact with one another.


The paper says survey evidence is consistent with smartphones reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography consumption and lowering sexual activity. These changes could have contributed to fewer unintended pregnancies and fewer births, particularly among younger people.


An Axios report on the study noted that birth rates began falling sharply around the same time the iPhone was introduced and continued declining even after the US economy recovered from the 2008 financial crisis.