Mission Unaccomplished: Trump’s Gulf gamble runs aground as Iran survives American assault

TOI correspondent from Washington: The emerging outlines of the US-Iran deal though not formally announced -- have triggered alarm among hawkish pro-Israel Republicans in Washington who spent months insisting military pressure would either collapse the Iranian regime or force unconditional capitulation. Instead Iran appears battered but strategically intact -- and potentially stronger.

Republicans and Democrats alike are eviscerating President Trump for getting into a needless war at the prompting of Israel and then folding before the objectives could be achieved.





Daniel Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel and now a leading critic of the war’s execution, described the proposed agreement bluntly: “The US-Iran deal being described in the news is a weak deal, and the net result of this war is significant damage to US strategic interests," he said, arguing that once Iran demonstrated its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and attack regional infrastructure, it acquired leverage Washington had underestimated.

“Iran has gained significant leverage for the future by demonstrating it can control the Strait, by attacking its neighbors and US bases in the region and causing significant damage, and by taking the United States’ and Israel’s best punch and surviving,” he added.

That assessment has sent shockwaves through Israel and among American hawks who champion military escalation. Senator Ted Cruz, one of the administration’s loudest defenders during the war, issued an extraordinary public warning.

“I am deeply concerned about what we are hearing about an Iran ‘deal,’” Cruz said. “If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime -- still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’ -- now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake.” Senator Lindsey Graham also voiced similar concerns, while Israeli officials fear Trump, under pressure from Gulf allies, may settle for de-escalation rather than complete victory.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had earlier demanded what critics mocked as “absolute delusion” – effectively Iran’s unconditional surrender. Instead, the administration appears to be confronting the hard reality of limited military options.

One former Republican congressman and prominent Trump critic, Adam Kinzinger, summarized the apparent climbdown with characteristic sarcasm:

“Trump: ‘Only complete and total surrender.’Iran: ‘Nah.’Trump: ‘Ok then no nukes ever! We want the nuclear dust!’Iran: ‘We’re keeping it.’Trump: ‘Ok!!!! We have a deal.’”

Inside Trump’s own political coalition, the emerging negotiations have exposed a widening fracture. Influential MAGA figures – deeply skeptical of foreign wars and exhausted by Middle East interventions – increasingly want Trump to declare victory and exit the conflict before it mutates into another quagmire.

The political pressure intensified after reports that Trump skipped his son’s wedding event to oversee negotiations many conservatives now deride as “surrender diplomacy.”

Meanwhile, Tehran has shown little hesitation in publicly taunting the American president. Iranian-linked media circulated a remarkable statement claiming, “American officials have acknowledged in multiple messages to Iran that Trump’s tweets are primarily for promotional purposes and media consumption within the United States, and they have recommended that no attention be paid to these statements.”

The mockery reflects growing confidence in Tehran that it has survived the combined US-Israel military assault without conceding core strategic interests. Iranian officials now openly frame the negotiations not as a retreat but as validation of Teheran’s resilience.

“With conservative optimism, we can hope that, if the other side is adequately committed, a positive stride is taking shape,” said Reza Amiri Moghadam, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, praising “the steadfastness of the courageous armed forces and the resistance of the brave Iranian nation,” as well as mediation efforts involving Pakistan.

Indeed, analysts say the war may have hardened rather than softened Tehran’s negotiating posture. Before the conflict, Iran had shown willingness to discuss limits on enrichment and broader nuclear concessions. After weeks of war, its priorities appear transformed: security guarantees, sanctions relief, economic stabilization and formal recognition of its regional leverage. From all accounts, the war produced tactical achievements for the US but strategically it appears to have hardened Iran’s position.

That shift has profound implications not only for the Middle East but for global geopolitics. The Biden and Trump administrations alike spent years trying to pivot American strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific and China. Instead, Washington now finds itself once again consumed by Gulf crises, energy shocks and the politics of regime survival in Tehran. And despite the immense military campaign waged by the US and Israel, the reality confronting Washington may be the same one Trump himself recognized years ago in that deceptively simple tweet.

Iran may not win wars, but once again, it may have survived long enough to negotiate from strength.