Cabinet reshuffle: Anandiben Patel firmly in saddle as Gujarat Chief Minister

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet reshuffle is being viewed as an exercise to re-energise his team before the elections in four states next year, especially Uttar Pradesh. But a closer look reveals that apart from UP, Modi has deftly quelled revolt in his home state of Gujarat and strengthened chief minister Anandiben Patel’s position as the undisputed leader.

Of the 19 new faces, both UP, and Gujarat had representation of 3 members in the union council of ministers. Parshottam Rupala, Mansukhbhai Mandavia and Jasvantsinh Bhabhor have been inducted while Mansukh Vasava and Mohan Kundaria have been dropped.

No doubt that the Patel factor weighed heavy in Modi’s mind as he tried to counter the Patidar (Patel) agitation by inducting Rupala and Mandavia as ministers. The agitating Patidars constitute roughly 15% of the state’s population and are dominant in Saurashtra region. They are demanding quota in government jobs and educational institutions and have been at loggerheads with the state government. The agitation is spearheaded by Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS), whose leader, Hardik Patel, and his associates have been in jail on charges of sedition since October last year.

Rupala’s induction also sends a powerful signal of the Modi-Shah duo’s firm backing of Anandiben Patel. Former Gujarat BJP chief, Rupala, was in possible contention for the chief minister’s post when the Patidar agitation seemed to be getting out of hand last year. Rupala was also seen as one of those who had covertly backed the Patel agitation to embarrass the chief minister. The road has now been cleared for Anandiben as Rupala takes charge in Delhi as a central minister.

Mansukh Vasava has openly criticised Gujarat chief minister for his removal as central minister. He had been at loggerheads with Anandiben over the issue of welfare of tribal population in the state. The fact that Vasava is blaming the chief minister for his ouster reflects the clout of Anandiben with Modi, and that she still enjoys his confidence. Vasava’s demotion has been countered by making another powerful tribal leader, Bhabhor, as union minister.

These actions exemplify why Anandiben has the strong backing of Modi, after all, it was he who had handpicked her for the top job in the state. The only possible replacement for her is Amit Shah, who has his plate full till the 2019 general election. Plus any talk of her removal at this juncture would be sending the wrong message and would be an implicit admission of Modi having erred in judgement.

The changes in team Modi is clear indication that Anandiben will get full support from Modi-Shah and the aim is to somehow retain Gujarat when it goes to polls at the end of 2017. Once the throne of Gandhinagar is successfully captured, then Anandiben can be gracefully retired by installing a new face at the helm.