Budget 2026 Expectations Highlights: PM Modi says Economic Survey offers guide for informed policymaking; all eyes now on FM Sitharaman’s speech

Economic Survey 2026 Live: FM Sitharaman says macroeconomic fundamentals stronger than ever

The Economic Survey 2025-26 was tabled in the Parliament today, giving an economic overview of the past year and ideas for the road ahead. In a world defined by geopolitical fragmentation and economic turbulence, India stands as a global bright spot - resilient, stable, and surging forward.

• The Survey mentions that amidst global uncertainties, the Indian economy has maintained robust momentum, with the First Advance Estimates placing real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY 2025-26. This performance reaffirms India's status as the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year.

• Under the leadership of Hon’ble PM Shri Narendra Modi, our macroeconomic fundamentals are stronger than ever. We have successfully navigated global headwinds to place India on a high-growth trajectory, improving our potential GDP growth to 7%.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: PM Modi reacts to Economic Survey

The Economic Survey tabled today presents a comprehensive picture of India’s Reform Express, reflecting steady progress in a challenging global environment.

It highlights strong macroeconomic fundamentals, sustained growth momentum and the expanding role of innovation, entrepreneurship and infrastructure in nation-building. The Survey underscores the importance of inclusive development, with focused attention on farmers, MSMEs, youth employment and social welfare. It also outlines the roadmap for strengthening manufacturing, enhancing productivity and accelerating our march towards becoming a Viksit Bharat.

The insights offered will guide informed policymaking and reinforce confidence in India’s economic future, PM Modi wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

Budget 2026 Expectations Live: What the logistics sector wants

“Budget 2026 has the potential to be a defining inflection point in accelerating India’s logistics transformation under the PM Gati Shakti vision. Building on the progress made in recent years, the next phase of growth will depend on deeper integration of infrastructure planning across air, road, rail, and multimodal networks, supported by faster adoption of digital platforms that enable seamless coordination across the logistics value chain. For the express logistics sector, sustained investments in airport infrastructure, cargo handling capacity, and regional air connectivity will be critical to improving turnaround times and supporting high-value, time-sensitive shipments. In parallel, wider adoption of digital enablers such as unified logistics platforms, data-driven visibility, and paperless processes - can further enhance predictability, transparency, and ease of doing business for exporters and MSMEs alike.

As sustainability becomes central to long-term competitiveness, policy levers can play a catalytic role. Differential taxation that favours greener modes of transport could accelerate modal shifts more effectively than standalone subsidies. Alongside this, focused investments in EV charging and alternative fuel infrastructure would help address practical adoption challenges, particularly across long-haul movements and urban delivery operations, enabling decarbonisation while maintaining service reliability. Continued capital expenditure on road infrastructure, especially last-mile connectivity, will further extend reliable logistics services into Tier 2, Tier 3, and rural India - strengthening MSME participation, integrating them into national and global supply chains, and supporting inclusive growth.

A parallel focus on the logistics workforce, through skill development, stronger safety norms, and clearer frameworks for gig and delivery professionals, will be vital to building operational resilience and service quality at scale. Together, these measures can help translate the Gati Shakti vision into tangible gains for trade, exports, and national competitiveness, supporting India’s journey towards a Viksit Bharat,” says Balfour Manuel, Managing Director at Blue Dart.

Budget 2026 Expectations Live: What FMCG sector wants

Balasubramanian A, Senior Vice President, TeamLease Services says, "The GST 2.0 disruption exposed supply-chain fragility. Distributors and retailers holding higher GST-rate inventory faced selling at lower GST rates, resulting in losses for some. The rational response was to de-stock rapidly and refuse fresh orders, creating a severe Q2 demand cliff for FMCG manufacturers. Q3 recovery reflects inventory replenishment, not a genuine consumption surge; revenue growth remains in the mid-single digits, well below pre-disruption double-digit levels.

Underlying the disruption is a deeper issue: genuine consumption growth remains muted despite low inflation, GST cuts, income tax reductions, and improved bank liquidity. The disconnect signals that government interventions have not translated into higher household spending. Wage growth has lagged aspirations, job security is uncertain, and middle-class households are saving rather than spending in anticipation of a slowdown or to meet education/healthcare obligations.

FMCG employment remains pressured despite volume recovery. Companies increase pack sizes to drive volume without proportional growth in unit sales or hiring. Automation in distribution centres and digital channels reduce field workforce. The 9% formal job market expansion reflects the strength of BFSI and e-commerce; FMCG’s contribution is modest and skewed toward contract/gig roles.

Consumer durables grew in line with the 4-5% manufacturing trend, but growth is driven by seasonal factors and tax policy timing rather than by underlying consumption strength. TVs saw GST cuts on models above 32 inches in September 2025, but TV purchases are concentrated in gift-giving seasons (Diwali, year-end); a September tax cut shows a muted impact until the festive season. ACs are highly seasonal (March-June); tax cuts announced in September 2025 will see their full impact only in spring 2026; the current high inventory reflects winter demand near zero. Manufacturers are clearing old stock ahead of the season; when April 2026 arrives, tax benefits will drive a recovery, but this should not signal underlying strength in consumption. Refrigerators and washing machines show steady demand from replacement and household formation; GST cuts drive modest volume uplift.

The sector expects the government to:

1. Enhance incentives for domestic manufacturing and stronger support for MSMEs in value-added segments
2. Focus on durable income support: MSP hikes, MGNREGA continuity, and rural credit expansion, rather than repeated tax transitions that create supply-chain chaos;
3. Simplify e-commerce regulations to improve digital channel efficiency
4. Ensure wage growth outpaces inflation through minimum wage enforcement and labour market tightening.
5. Extend PLI for domestic component manufacturing (compressors, panels, controls) to improve cost competitiveness and local employment."

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Positioning for faster growth despite uncertainties

The Economic Survey 2025-26 sees improved growth prospects despite heightened global uncertainty. In fiscal 2027, Crisil expects GDP growth to print at 6.7%. The Survey, however, sees growth inching towards its upwardly revised potential growth rate of ~7% — the midpoint of the forecast of 6.8-7.2% range.

Efficiency gains from reforms are estimated to have lifted potential growth from the 6.5% estimated three years back. The Survey believes the sustained reform push, Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and other measures to boost manufacturing and competitiveness have raised the growth potential.

However, the Economic Survey does see heightened geopolitical uncertainty as a key risk to its outlook. It highlights strong manufacturing growth as the key to building external resilience, says Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, Crisil Limited.

Ahead of the budget, the Survey notes the steady consolidation of government deficit and debt post pandemic and a reinstated goal of bringing down the Central government debt to 50+/-1% by fiscal 2031 from 56.1% of GDP budgeted for fiscal 2026.

However, states finances are a point of concern, particularly the rising trend in unconditional cash transfers.

As the government moves on making debt as its main anchor from this budget, Crisil believes there are two key considerations for fiscal management[1] — first, rising interest payments add to debt stickiness and, second, with the impending shift in goal post from a deficit ratio to a debt ratio, the former cannot be ignored altogether.

Our study explores two scenarios for the Centre to bring down its debt, one of which entails a less aggressive fiscal deficit reduction, she says

•⁠ ⁠Aggressive fiscal deficit reduction with GDP growth at its decadal average trend: If nominal GDP growth over the next five years remains in line with the past decade’s average of 10.4% per year, then the government would need to bring the fiscal deficit below 3.5% of GDP by fiscal 2031 (from 4.4% budgeted for fiscal 2026)

•⁠ ⁠Moderate fiscal deficit reduction with above-trend GDP growth: If nominal GDP growth rises ~100 basis points (bps) above the current trend to 11.3% on average over the next five years, then the fiscal deficit could be reduced more gradually to 4.2% of GDP by fiscal 2031

Growth-oriented government capital expenditure, and reforms can play a key role in lifting real GDP growth above its decadal trend.

In the context, the Economic Survey notes some key priorities to lift medium-term growth: building manufacturing capacity, building skillsets for workforce to contribute more to growth, and reforms to raise productivity gains in the economy.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Potential for 7.5% growth

India’s economy has the capability to achieve a potential growth trajectory of 7.5 percent over the coming years if greater focus is placed on strengthening manufacturing, expanding exports and advancing process-oriented reforms, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said on Thursday.
Earlier in the day, the Economic Survey for 2025–26, which was presented in Parliament, revised India’s potential growth estimate upward to 7 percent from the 6.5 percent projection made three years ago.

Speaking to the media after the Survey was tabled, Nageswaran said that achieving stronger competitiveness in manufacturing and exports, along with pursuing further process reforms related to land and cost subsidisation and reducing production expenses, could lift potential growth beyond the current estimate.

“If we are able to achieve manufacturing and export competitiveness and pursue further process reforms in the areas of land and cost subsidisation and bring down the cost of manufacturing, the potential 7 per cent growth can even rise to 7.5 per cent and 8 per cent in the next few years,” he said.
He also noted that the Economic Survey released three years earlier had placed India’s maximum potential growth at 6.5 percent, adding that with medium-term reforms, this could now increase to a range of 7 to 8 percent annually.

Economic Survey 2026 live: Tiered framework for enhancing indigenisation

The Economic Survey has suggested a tiered structure for enhancing indigenisation and reducing vulnerabilities in areas like fertiliser inputs, pharma ingredients, magnet and battery cells.

According to the Survey, the 'high urgency sectors' such as fertiliser inputs, oil, pulses, pharma ingredients, industrial chemicals and telecom equipment, require near-term capability building to rapidly scale up domestic production.

In case of magnets, battery cells, cathodes, and solar wafers, long-term efforts in a phased manner will be required to reduce vulnerabilities on imported goods in these sectors.

For products like cranes, industrial machinery, EVs, and medical devices (non-critical), the survey has suggested upgradation of competitiveness through gradual localisation and cluster development.

Similarly, for sectors including Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs), Rail Signalling and Defence electronics, it said there is a need to buildan ecosystem and talent pool.

Economic Survey 2026 live: Survey calls for strengthening India's long-term debt market

India needs to deepen its debt markets to help companies raise long-term capital for infrastructure development and climate financing, the Economic Survey said. The Survey stressed that “to finance sustained growth, India must strengthen long-term capital markets,” noting that corporate bond markets remain “shallow and illiquid” and largely dominated by top-rated issuers.

It pointed out that securitisation remains limited, municipal bond markets are underdeveloped, and pension and insurance funds continue to invest conservatively due to regulatory and cultural inertia.

The Survey said these challenges could be addressed through coordinated reforms, including rationalising the tax treatment of debt instruments. At present, debt instruments are taxed at the investor’s applicable income tax slab, while equity instruments such as listed shares and equity mutual funds attract 20% tax on short-term gains and 12.5% on long-term gains.

Other recommendations include creating credit enhancement facilities for lower-rated issuers, standardising securitisation structures and disclosures, building municipal financial capacity through pooled bond mechanisms, revising investment guidelines for long-term funds, and strengthening financial market infrastructure and insolvency systems.

“Such reforms would supply the scale and maturity needed for infrastructure and climate financing while lowering the economy’s cost of capital,” the Survey said, adding that the measures aim to build a financial system that is “stable yet competitive, diversified yet resilient, and innovation-friendly yet safe.”

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Agriculture sector focus

Economic survey doubles down on criticality of the Agriculture & allied sector in ensuring equitable growth, food security and long-term aspirations as a nation. Tech-enabled solutions & DBT support would bring more efficiency towards food & fertilizer subsidy.

•⁠ ⁠The ethanol blending program stands out as a strategic success, strengthening energy security while reshaping crop incentives, particularly for maize.
•⁠ ⁠⁠Continued investment towards Agriculture exports & climate resilience would prove to be key pegs for sector’s long term sustainable growth, says Shashi Kant Singh , Partner -Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness, PwC India.

Economic Survey 2026 Live Updates: Need to retain students beyond Class 8

There is a need to retain students beyond Class 8 as enrolment at the secondary level remains weak, the Economic Survey 2025–26 said, flagging structural gaps in access to higher classes, especially in rural areas.

Tabled in Parliament by Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the survey noted that while India has improved enrolment at the early stages of schooling, the secondary age-specific net enrolment rate (NER) stands at just 52.2%.

The survey highlighted an uneven distribution of schools across the country. About 54% of schools offer only foundational and preparatory education, while just 17.1% provide secondary education in rural areas. In contrast, urban areas have a much higher share of secondary schools at 38.1%.

This imbalance, the survey said, limits rural students’ access to higher classes, leading to “transition losses, increased travel time, and higher dropout rates”.

“These structural imbalances are reflected in enrolment patterns, with a drop from the foundational and preparatory levels to the middle and to secondary levels in rural areas,” it said. In urban areas, however, enrolment rises from the middle to the secondary stage. Grade-wise data also shows a sharp decline at the secondary level.

The survey acknowledged India’s progress in boosting school enrolment by strengthening infrastructure and teacher capacity, supported by schemes such as Poshan Shakti Nirman and Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan.

However, it stressed that “further action is required”, particularly as the focus shifts from enrolment to learning outcomes.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Export performance since the start of the millennium

“India’s export performance since the start of the millennium tells its own story. In general, services exports have outpaced goods exports. In particular, over the five years since 2020, the compounded annual growth rate of total exports has been 9.4%, while that of merchandise exports has been only 6.4%. Services have done much of the heavy lifting, creditable and macro-stabilising, but not a substitute for the goods-based export ecosystems that ultimately underpin durable external and currency stability,” says the Economic Survey 2026.

The Information Technology-Enabled Services Sector has been India’s mainstay for growth and exports since the dawn of the millennium. International experience indicates that while service exports are economically valuable, they do not systematically compel broad upgrades in state capacity, as successful firms can bypass weak institutions, relocate easily, and generate limited economy-wide pressure on governments to reform. Unlike manufacturing exports, they do not impose hard fiscal, employment, or logistical constraints on the State, allowing institutional weakness to persist even alongside globally competitive firms. So, manufacturing matters.

Economic Survey 2025-26: GDP growth pegged at 7.4%, inflation at historic lows

India is expected to retain its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with real GDP growth projected at 7.4% in FY26, despite a fragile global backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and financial risks, the Economic Survey 2025–26 said.

Tabled in Parliament by Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the survey said India’s macroeconomic fundamentals have strengthened, supported by resilient domestic demand, disciplined fiscal consolidation and improving financial sector health. It also underlined the need for strategic resilience as the global economic order undergoes rapid shifts.

Growth outlook strong: Real GDP growth is estimated at 7.4% in FY26 and 6.8–7.2% in FY27, while gross value added (GVA) growth is pegged at 7.3% in FY26, keeping India the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year.

Consumption and investment drive momentum: Private consumption grew 7% in FY26, accounting for 61.5% of GDP, while gross fixed capital formation rose 7.8%. Investment remained steady at 30% of GDP, led by sustained public capital expenditure and a gradual revival in private investment. Read full story

India needs stable agricultural-export policy to achieve $100 bn goal: Economic Survey

India must align its policies to boost agricultural exports and avoid ad hoc trade restrictions that disrupt supply chains and damage the country's reputation as a reliable supplier, the Economic Survey said on.

Agricultural exports represent "low-hanging fruit with immense export potential" and carry international leverage for India, the survey said, calling for policies that balance domestic demand with export growth.

India aims to reach USD 100 billion in combined exports of agriculture, marine products and food and beverages in the next four years, up from USD 51.1 billion in agricultural exports in fiscal 2024-25.

The world's second-largest agricultural producer by value accounts for just 2.2 per cent of global farm exports, up from 1.1 per cent in 2000, according to World Trade Organisation data - a "significant untapped potential," the survey said.

Agricultural exports grew at a compound annual growth rate of 8.2 per cent between fiscal 2019-20 and 2024-25, outpacing overall merchandise export growth of 6.9 per cent.

However, agricultural exports have stagnated between fiscal 2022-23 and 2024-25, even as global agricultural trade rose to USD 2.4 trillion in 2024 from USD 2.3 trillion in 2022.

"Frequent policy changes can significantly disrupt export supply chains, create market uncertainty and cause foreign buyers to switch to other sources," the survey warned, adding that export markets once lost are not easily recovered.

India has often employed ad hoc export bans or minimum export prices to manage domestic inflation and price volatility, measures that may temporarily stabilise prices but risk longer-term reputational costs.

The survey recommended alternative policy tools to ensure domestic availability at fair prices, including subsidised food distribution, buffer stock management, market interventions and enforcement of anti-hoarding measures.

"It is possible to stabilise domestic availability and prices while enabling farmers to tap global markets for better incomes," the survey said.

Gold and silver prices are expected to stay elevated unless global geopolitical tensions cool and trade disputes ease, the Economic Survey 2025–26 said, citing strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing uncertainty.

Tabled in Parliament, the survey noted that both precious metals hit lifetime highs in 2025, supported by a weakening US dollar, expectations of persistently negative real interest rates, and rising geopolitical and financial tail risks, PTI reported.

“The prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, are likely to continue increasing due to their sustained demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless a durable peace is established and trade wars are resolved,” the survey said.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Private consumption is set to strengthen

"The survey reaffirms that private consumption is set to strengthen, supported by low inflation, steady incomes, reduced direct and indirect taxes, and improving demand. Private consumption is now at a decadal-high share of GDP. Alongside this, investment continues to anchor growth, with GFCF expanding 7.6% and sustaining a near 30% of GDP, well above pre-pandemic levels, signalling a revival in the investment cycle. The resilience in exports despite global headwinds and a declining fiscal deficit estimate to 4.4 % in FY26 indicates improving fundamentals.Though the domestic economy looks stable, given that the survey indicates that the external environment will remain volatile, the budget will lean towards consolidation as hinted in the fiscal deficit estimate numbers,” says Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founder of Dezerv.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Framework of delayed gratification

"The Survey marks a clear shift away from short-term macro management toward a framework of delayed gratification, arguing that durable growth can only be built through sustained investment in productivity, institutions and factor markets. Its core contribution lies in upgrading India’s medium-term growth potential by emphasising capital formation, urbanisation, logistics, and state-level reform—recognising that growth outcomes ultimately depend on execution across states rather than central transfers alone. The Survey’s treatment of manufacturing is grounded in trade realism: manufacturing remains essential not for nostalgia, but for export resilience, supply-chain positioning and technology diffusion. Accordingly, industrial policy is reframed around innovation, scale and a lower cost of capital, rather than protection. Importantly, the Survey also reflects a maturing view of the state—less as a direct producer and more as an entrepreneurial catalyst that absorbs early risk, builds public goods and crowds in private investment. The underlying message is that India’s next phase of growth will be earned through efficiency, credibility and long-horizon policymaking, not stimulus alone,” says Rishi Shah, Partner and Economic Advisory Services Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: External demand continues to support growth

While domestic drivers remained the primary source of growth in FY26, external demand, with a share of 21.6 per cent of GDP, also supported growth. In the first half of FY26, exports of goods and services grew by 5.9 per cent, exceeding the growth seen in the same period last year, and remaining above the pre-pandemic average, supported by trade diversification. Services exports have continued to provide a stable anchor for growth, partially offsetting the greater volatility in goods exports, amid tariff related uncertainties, says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Domestic demand continues to underpin economic growth

Domestic demand continues to underpin economic growth in FY26. According to the FAE, the share of final private consumption expenditure (PFCE) in GDP rose to 61.5 per cent in FY26, the highest level since FY12. This is corroborated by the strong performance during the first half of the year, with PFCE growing by 7.5 per cent in H1 of FY26, and its share in GDP rising to 61.4 per cent. This is the fastest growth rate since the first half of FY23 and remains higher than the pre-COVID trend of 6.9 per cent.

This strength in consumption reflects a supportive macroeconomic environment, characterised by low inflation, stable employment conditions, and rising real purchasing power. Moreover, steady rural consumption, bolstered by strong agricultural performance, and the gradual improvement in urban consumption, aided by the rationalisation of direct and indirect taxes, reaffirm that the momentum in consumption demand is broad-based, says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Growth outlook

“Looking ahead, while global uncertainties remain elevated, domestic growth drivers are expected to continue supporting economic activity. With macroeconomic stability in place and ongoing reform efforts, the economy appears well-positioned to sustain growth in the near term. The outlook for FY27 is shaped by these domestic strengths, alongside evolving external conditions. India’s medium-term growth potential has strengthened to 7 per cent, positioning the economy on a path of steady expansion amid global uncertainty.” says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Survey is honest about the next risk

"The Economic Survey this year makes four things quite clear for anyone looking at India through an investment lens. First, inflation is no longer a binding constraint. Headline CPI inflation has eased sharply, touching around 1.7 percent by December 2025, the lowest level in the current series. Core inflation has stayed subdued as well, pointing to improving supply side conditions rather than demand being artificially suppressed. That significantly improves visibility on costs and returns for businesses. Second, fiscal consolidation has moved from promise to proof. The Union government has brought the fiscal deficit down from 9.2 percent of GDP in FY21 to 4.8 percent in FY25, and has committed to 4.4 percent in FY26. Investors tend to respond not to targets, but to trajectories, and this one has clearly held. In fact, there maybe more positive news in store with revision of the GDP series in the next few months. Third, the quality of spending has improved. Public expenditure has been tilted decisively toward capital investment, which has helped push gross fixed capital formation above 30 percent of GDP. That matters because it signals crowding in of private investment, supported by stronger bank balance sheets and steady credit growth.

And Finally, the survey is honest about the next risk. While central finances have consolidated, rising revenue expenditure and cash transfers at the state level could dilute investment efficiency if not managed carefully. Markets are increasingly looking at general government finances, not just the Centre.The broader takeaway is straightforward: India has moved from macro stabilisation to macro credibility. If low inflation and investment-led fiscal discipline are sustained, the Survey’s new assessment of 7 percent potential growth becomes not just plausible, but repeatable,” says Apurv Bhattacharya, Director, Economic Services, Grant Thornton Bharat.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: ‘Picture of robust economic health’

“The Economic Survey sees India’s medium term real GDP growth potential at 7%. For FY27, the projected growth is in the range of 6.8-7.2%. This is predicated on a contribution of total factor productivity of 1.9% points. The balance is to be contributed by growth in capital stock and that in labour which have respective shares of 0.49 and 0.51. As such the contributions of capital and labour to overall growth are estimated at 3.72% points and 1.33% points respectively. Thus, overall potential growth is largely driven by growth of capital stock. The only uncertainty relates to global economic headwinds which may continue for some time. However, India has strategized to mitigate the effect of this uncertainty by progressively enlarging its bilateral agreements with other large economies and country groups.

The general government fiscal deficit was 7.8% of GDP in FY25 (RE). This consists of GoI’s fiscal deficit and the consolidated fiscal deficit of states. As per the FY25 provisional actuals, GoI’s fiscal deficit was 4.8% of GDP and the consolidated states’ fiscal deficit was 2.8%. In FY26 (BE), GoI’s fiscal deficit is likely to fall to 4.4% of GDP. However, states’ fiscal deficit is budgeted to increase to 3.3% as they avail the interest free loans from the GoI. As per the Survey, the consolidated fiscal deficit is expected to come down to 7.2% of GDP in FY26 (BE). Going forward, GoI has to progressively bring down its fiscal deficit to GDP ratio to a level of 3%. States may also stabilize their fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP. Thus, as more and more borrowing space is vacated by the government, the private corporate sector would find it easier to access available investible resources. The Survey argues that it may be better that for a period of 5 years or so, the strategy of fiscal consolidation may be changed ensuring an annual reduction in the GoI’s debt-GDP ratio. After global uncertainties are settled, it may be possible to return to a more conventional rule-based fiscal consolidation targets for fiscal deficit and debt in the context of their respective sustainable levels. At that time, the GoI’s Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) may be recast accordingly.

On the whole, the Economic Survey paints a picture of robust economic health for the Indian economy amidst continuing global uncertainties,” says
DK Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: We have promises to keep and miles to go before we sleep

“We are doing better post covid, but the world is more dangerous. We acknowledge that we have promises to keep and miles to go before we can sleep. We have to reimagine the way we are organized as a state and reimagine the way we function as well, and that applies to the government, the private sector and households. Businesses and households have to internalize their responsibilities as a society. We have to embrace delayed gratification,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: India’s average growth potential upgraded

“Three years ago, we wrote in the economic survey that the maximum potential growth of the Indian economy was 6.5% and with reforms, it could rise to between 7 and 8% per annum in the medium term. On the back of the evidence, in terms of actual performance, creation of public investments, the good health of the financial sector, enthusiastic uptake of state level, deregulation and both process and policy reforms of the Union government. This economic survey, despite the geopolitical environment being what it is, is confidently upgrading India's potential growth to 7% per annum from six and a half percent three years ago,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Link protection for Indian industry to productivity and export performance

“What should the state do to achieve strategic indispensability? What should the governments do in the country, union and states pursue Swadeshi ecosystem? First, reforms, deregulation, whole of government. Approach, cluster manufacturing, cluster led growth input cost reduction. It is not just removal of inversion of custom duties, but also eliminating cross subsidization with respect to fleet and power cost, etc, boosting competitiveness world class and reliable infrastructure, long term policy stability, building the talent ecosystem.

More importantly, when we give protection to our industry from import competition, we have to link it to productivity and export performance. That is what Northeast Asia did better than any other country in the world. So in other words, what Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan did was to support their domestic industry, but in return, demand productivity and export performance and measuring up to global competition within a limited period of time. So production cannot be in perpetuity, and it should be in return for productivity and export performance.”

Economic Survey 2026 Live: ‘Bring down debt significantly’

“The Economic Survey introduces two interesting phrases that presents the core of the fleeting economic snapshot that India currently faces. These terms are ‘strategic sobriety’ and ‘running the sprint and marathon’ at the same time. There is an honest assessment in the survey of the achievements of the government and also the course corrections that the Government has done that is termed as an ‘entrepreneurial state’ i.e. learning and agile policy making. The survey points to a contained inflation from supply side efficiencies being achieved through progressive logistical improvements from high capex. It presents the risk to exchange rates owing to negative capital flows. It also raises the issue of high cost of capital in India that makes businesses less competitive owing to higher deficits, especially at the state level. The potential GDP growth rate has been increased to 7% with the growth range being pegged as 6.8 to 7.2%. We now look forward to the budget and it will be interesting to see whether it picks up on the hints in the survey on need to bring down debt significantly, remove protection for upstream industries for the benefit of MSMEs through significant reforms in customs duties and introduce incentives for states to be fiscally prudent,” says Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader Economic Advisory, PwC India.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Growing economy will import more

“We also have to appreciate that as the economy grows, per capita income rises, imports will inevitably rise. This is a given. China's per capita income growth went from nothing to $12,000 in the last 50 years or so. Simultaneously, imports have grown. We look at China as a major exporting power. That is true, but it also imports a lot, 3.3 trillion, importing services. So similarly, India, going from $2,500 per capita to $20,000 per capita in the next 25 years, will also see its imports rise. We have to export or attract capital to pay for it.

The currency depreciation that we are witnessing today isn’t something unique to India. Countries which have a current account deficit have seen their currencies depreciate. If you look at the performance of currencies since the Millennium began, the Indian rupee actually has done quite well, and the performance even since Covid,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Swadeshi is a legitimate policy instrument

“Trade is no longer reciprocal, markets are no longer neutral, and supply chains have become instruments of state power, and we have seen them in several examples across the world. Therefore, Swadeshi is a legitimate policy instrument in such a world. Countries have to take care of their priorities, and therefore we should not be squeamish about swearing by Swadeshi in this kind of global environment,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Renewable energy push

“India is committed to net zero by 2070. India is one of the better performing countries in terms of installation of solar and wind power in the world at the same time, if we have to become more pervasive as a share of overall energy generation, if renewable energy were to become a significant part of the energy picture, we need to understand the ramifications the amount of material required and the energy required to therefore generate renewable energy should not be underestimated,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Perils of low data costs

“When we spoke about the data cost being the lowest in the world, I said it's a mixed blessing, and here is why - compulsive scrolling and social comparison is linked to anxiety and depressive symptoms, and we have been covering it in the previous two economic surveys, and we continue to do so,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Infrastructure push & growth

“The number of operational high speed corridors in terms of length of kilometers in highways just 550 kilometers, improved to 5360 kilometers. And that to only up to December. The commissioning of railway networks from 1500 to more than doubling to 3100. Plus, port infrastructure having gone up in terms of cargo handle and the capacity of ports in terms of tonnage,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Macro strong, investors reacting to global uncertainty

“The outcome of rising global uncertainty for the country is the effect on the capital account, and therefore on the currency. As an emerging market and a capital importing country, developments in India's external account reflects the impact of the rise in global uncertainty. India's gross FDI has been growing very well, but net FDI has been on the weaker side, partly because of profit taking by investors who have invested in the earlier decades, and also because of the compulsion that Indian businesses face to invest overseas. So ODI by Indian businesses has also increased. As a result, net FDI numbers are not where we would like them to be, although they are not alarming.

Portfolio investors have various reasons. One is the valuation and the lack of a so called AI story in India. Also the overall uncertainty caused by the tariff situation is holding them back from committing more money into the Indian market. But as a contrarian, when sentiment towards India is actually on the weaker side, that is when the future prospective returns will look the brightest, actually.

And if you look at the currency, therefore, as a country that depends on imported capital to meet a current account deficit, even though the deficit itself is on the lower side, if capital flows become weaker, naturally, the currency reflects that. And that is what we have seen in the last one year, with the rupee weakening against the dollar by about six to 7% This is in spite of the stellar economic fundamentals we have.

So it has got nothing to do with the macro picture. It is simply accounting that if you are a current account deficit country, you need to import capital, says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Digital connectivity & data costs

In terms of digital connectivity, India has a very steep decline in data costs compared to any other country in the world. Perhaps we are the cheapest, says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: What it says on education

“When it comes to enrollment, I think India has fixed that problem. Mostly, now we are focusing on the quality of educational outcomes, because up to middle school level, enrollment is almost 100% up to high school, it's about 80% and up to secondary school, it's about 60% or so. And in tertiary education, we have a target of 50% and we are somewhere around 32%,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Forex reserves have doubled

“Forex reserves have more than doubled, more than compared to 11 years ago, from $341 billion to $701 billion. While much of it is due to lately the increase in gold valuations, definitely, there is an increased accretion of foreign exchange currencies as well,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Weakening dollar

Gold rose from USD 2607 to USD 4315 per ounce in 20251 , reflecting a weakening US dollar, expectations of persistently negative real rates, and the market’s growing assessment of geopolitical and financial tail risks.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Inflation is benign

“We are achieving this high growth rates, consumption and investment spending amidst very moderate inflation environment. This year, it is projected to be about 1.7% on average so far for the first nine months of the year, largely due to deflationary trend in food price index. However, it's important to note that core inflation is also well behaved. If you take out gold and silver, core inflation is 2.9 well below the 4% threshold with which the headline inflation is pursued by the central bank. So we basically have benign inflation trends, which we expect to see continue in the next financial year as well,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Credible fiscal consolidation path

Economic Survey 2026 Live: India an oasis of macro stability

“India is an indeed, oasis of macro stability in otherwise a turbulent world. Numbers speak for themselves. The important thing is, whether it is for the current financial year or the future, our India's growth numbers stand out in comparison to any other part of the world, and that is why we call India a voices of economic performance in the global scenario,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: What the survey cover symobolises

“Economic survey cover actually symbolises the key message that we have on the importance of manufacturing and exports for India's future growth in a very fragmented world and a fractious global environment. The survey takes you through our current economic performance, and what are our priorities for the next 25 years, and how are we going to pursue them in the global context, which is somewhat unpredictable and even dangerous, and therefore what kind of preparation as a country, as a society, we need to make to be able to achieve our priorities in a difficult global environment,” says Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Strengthening supply-side conditions across the economy

“While headline inflation continues to reflect volatility in food prices, the subdued trajectory of core inflation (excluding gold and silver) indicates a strengthening of supply-side conditions across the economy, consistent with rising productive capacity and improved logistics. In parallel, sustained state-level deregulation efforts are enabling small and medium enterprises to expand and integrate more effectively into formal value chains, elevating the economy’s medium-term growth potential,” says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Process reforms matter more

“Policy reforms do matter.Process reforms arguably more so.Processes define the interaction between the government and the governed. So, they make all the difference to the success or failure of policy intent and reforms. The signs are very promising. The deregulation and smart regulation initiatives undertaken by states in the last year, in particular, provide ample grounds for optimism that the state machinery is capable of reinventing itself and its mission, shifting from regulation and control to enabling. Together with the Union Government’s economic reforms and other policy initiatives, this signals that the state understands the significance of the challenge and the need to rise to it,” says the Economic Survey.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Government bonds globally indexed

“With Indian government bonds now globally indexed and investors increasingly assessing general-government finances, weak fiscal discipline at the State level can no longer be treated as locally contained—it increasingly affects the cost of sovereign borrowing. India’s 10-year bond yield is 6.7%, while Indonesia’s is 6.3%, even though both countries have the same credit rating of BBB. States’ fiscal priorities, perhaps, are casting a shadow on the sovereign’s borrowing cost, as investors focus on the fiscal parameters of the general government rather than just those of the Union government. More importantly, the economic costs of the insidious impact that unconditional fiscal transfers have on the incentives for self-improvement, upskilling, and employability may be more significant in the long term,” says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Importance of labour codes

The Economic Survey for 2025–26 has underscored that putting the Labour Codes into effect will be crucial for strengthening formal job creation and enhancing protection for women and gig economy workers.

Presented in Parliament on Thursday, the Survey noted that all four Labour Codes were notified on November 21, 2025, with the corresponding rules expected to be finalised in the coming months.

The report observed that as the nature and definition of work continue to change, labour policy must remain adaptive, supported by flexible regulatory structures to promote employment growth while safeguarding worker security and well-being.

It pointed out that draft rules under the four legislations, the Code on Wages, 2019, the Industrial Relations Code, 2020, the Code on Social Security, 2020, and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020, were released for public consultation on December 31, 2025.
According to the Survey, India has seen notable gains in employment in recent years, driven by structural reforms, tax rationalisation measures and a consistent emphasis on skill development.

The document also highlighted that demographic changes, rapid technological advancements and shifting industry requirements are reshaping the employment and skilling landscape, particularly with the growing presence of gig and platform-based work.

Against this backdrop, the Survey reiterated that “the effective implementation of Labour Codes would play a key role in supporting formal employment and improving security for women and gig workers”.

On the skilling front, it emphasised the need for more flexible vocational pathways beginning at the school level in the years ahead.

The Survey further suggested that targeted skill development initiatives for women and young people in high-productivity sectors will be essential to achieving more inclusive growth outcomes.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: India is relatively better off than most other countries

“India is relatively better off than most other countries due to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals, butthis doesnot guarantee insulation.The country benefits from a large domestic market, a less financialised growth model, strong foreign exchange reserves and a credible degree of strategic autonomy. These features provide buffers in an environment where financial volatility is imminent and geopolitical uncertainty is permanent.

There is a risk of disruption of capital flows and the consequent impact on the rupee. In a world of geopolitical turbulence, this may not be confined to a year but could be a more enduring feature. In response, India needs to generate sufficient investor interest and export earnings in foreign currency to cover its rising import bill, as, regardless of the success of indigenisation efforts, rising imports will invariably accompany rising incomes. This has been the historical global experience,” says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Need for nanufacturing competitiveness

“Manufacturing competitiveness and exports are important for maintaining long-term currency stability and strength. Moreover, when the security of supply of essential and infrastructure goods is no longer assured, manufacturing takes on a far greater strategic dimension. This creates a strategic need for resilience, which must, however, be balanced against the risk that high protection in upstream sectors (for example, textile fibre, steel and aluminium) raises costs for a much larger set of firms engaged in export-oriented production,” says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Economic Survey format changes

“This Economic Survey itself reflects the weight of the momentous changes happening elsewhere. First, this edition of the Economic Survey has seen its depth and breadth deepen and expand, respectively.It has seventeen chapters, and they have been rearranged. The arrangement of chapters, which previously relied on precedence, is now based on the depth and time-relevance of national priorities. Second, the Survey is longer this time than before, due to the range of issues and topics covered. Third, the Survey examines three topics of medium- to long-term interest to us in special essays: the evolution of Artificial Intelligence, the challenge of quality of life in Indian cities, and the roles of state capacity and the private sector (including households) in achieving strategic resilience and strategic indispensability,” CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran explains.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: What economic policy should focus on

“Economic policy must focus on the stability of supply, the creation of resource buffers, and the diversification of routes and payment systems. 2026 may mark the point at which policy credibility, predictability and administrative discipline cease to be mere virtues and instead become strategic assets in their own right, with lasting relevance. The appropriate stance for 2026 is therefore one of strategic sobriety rather than defensive pessimism. The external environment will require India to prioritise both domestic growth maximisation and shock absorption, with a greater emphasis on buffers, redundancy, and liquidity. Put differently, India must run a marathon and sprint simultaneously, or run a marathon as if it were a sprint,” says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: What’s the best case scenario for the world?

“The best-case scenario for the world in 2026 is ‘business as in 2025’, but one that becomes increasingly less secure and more fragile. In this setting, with the margin of safety being thinner, minor shocks can escalate into larger reverberations. Financial stress episodes, trade frictions, and geopolitical escalations do not lead to systemic collapse, but they do create volatility and require governments to intervene more actively to stabilise expectations. This scenario is less about continuity and more about managed disorder, with countries operating in a world that remains integrated yet increasingly distrustful,” says the Economic Survey 2026.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: Lingering concerns on global tensions

“Although global growth and trade have held up better than expected, few are certain why this is the case. Hence, there is a lingering concern that the negative effects of the ongoing global political and economic turmoil may manifest with a lag. Fragility, uncertainty and episodic shocks are increasingly structural features of the system, and the balance of risks has shifted perceptibly over the past year. Geopolitical competition has intensified, the security
environment in Europe has become increasingly complex, and financial vulnerabilities associated with leveraged technology investments are looming. Trade policy is now shaped primarily by security and political considerations rather than efficiency or multilateral rules.

Taken together, these developments suggest a world that is less coordinated, more risk-averse, and more exposed to non-linear outcomes with a narrower margin of safety,” the Economic Survey says.

Economic Survey 2026 Live: The fall of rupee

The Indian rupee underperformed in 2025. India runs a trade deficit in goods. Its net trade surplus in services and remittances is not enough to offset it. India depends on foreign capital flows to maintain a healthy balance of payments. When they run drier, rupee stability becomes a casualty, says the Economic Survey.