Gold price prediction today: Gold rates expected to maintain positive trend in coming months - is it the right time to buy?

| TOI Business Desk | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Sep 23, 2025, 11:44 IST

Gold price prediction today: Gold rates are expected to rise in t... Read More

Gold price prediction today: Gold rates are likely to maintain their long-term positive bias, with dips and corrections serving as buying opportunity for investors, says Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. The analyst shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:

Tired of too many ads?go ad free now

Gold Performance:

Spot gold closed with a hefty gain of 1.1% at $3685 on Friday as the US Fed rate cuts helped the metal regain its bullish momentum. The yellow metal recorded its fifth straight weekly gain as it was up 1.1% in the week ending September 19.
On September 22, the metal extended its rally in the expectations of further rate cuts. The rally gathered pace ahead of the newly appointed Fed Governor Miran's speech, as following his vote for a 50-bps rate cut at the FOMC meeting concluded on September 17, markets have been hopeful that he would again press for outsized rate cuts. He was the only dissenter in the September 17 monetary policy decision meeting as he also wanted to cut rates by another 1.25 percentage points at the two remaining FOMC meetings this year, as compared to the Fed's median view of lowering rates by another 50-bps.
As widely expected, on Monday, he called the Fed's rate regime too restrictive and pushed for aggressive rate cuts.
The shiny metal was changing hands at $3743, up by 1.57%, at the time of writing this report, while the MCX gold October contract at Rs 112,200 was up by nearly 2%.

Stephen Miran' speech:

Speaking on 'economic outlook' at Economic Club of New York on September 22, Miran, President Trump's appointee to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, said that due to sharp declines in immigration, rising tariff revenue and aging population, Fed's rate should be closer to 2.5% rather than the current 4%-4.25%. He said that series of 50-bps cuts will recalibrate policy and it is better to move to neutral more quickly than less quickly. He sees CPI rent inflation falling below 1.5% in 2027 from 3.5%. Miran estimates neutral real rate, level of rate that neither boosts nor constrains economy, to be close to zero as immigration restrictions, higher saving rates because of tariffs and the raft of tax cuts passed earlier this year have significantly lowered estimates.

Other Fed speakers are cautious though:

St Louis Fed President Musalem said on Monday that he sees limited room for more reductions, and only under certain circumstances.
Atlanta Fed President Bostic in an interview published Monday in the WSJ said that he was hesitant to declare his support for another rate cut in October meeting as he finds that inflation has been too high for too long.

Upcoming data and events:

President Donald Trump will address on the first day of high-level General Debate at the 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA) beginning on September 22 in New York. The debate runs through Sept. 29.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy will meet Trump on the sidelines of UNGA to persuade him to join a security guarantees framework.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island on Sept 23.
Major upcoming US data on tap this week include S&P global US PMIs (Sep. 23), new home sales (Sep. 24), Q2 GDP tertiary (Sep. 25), PCE Price Index (September 26), real personal spending (Sept. 26) and University of Michigan inflation expectations and consumer sentiment (Sept. 26).
The Eurozone's PMIs will be out on September 23.

Tired of too many ads?go ad free now

Gold ETF holdings:

As of September 19, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 95.83 Moz, a fresh cycle high, and now at the highest level since May 2022.
ETF holdings have risen for four straight weeks and are up 15.66% YTD.

Fiscal turmoil in Argentina:

Argentina, which must meet about $9.50 billion in debt payments next year, is witnessing a slump in its currency Peso. The Peso has declined around 4% since September 19 as investors started pulling out of Argentina after he suffered a local election defeat on September 7, which in turn raised the stakes of for midterm congressional election in October. The US as offered all the possible help to Argentina.

US Dollar Index and US yields:

Following a 3-day winning streak, the US Dollar Index declined on September 22 and at the time of writing was seen at 97.39, down nearly .3% for the day.
Ten-year US yields at 4.13% were up by 0.14%, while 2-year yields rose by 1.5 bps to 3.586%.

Geopolitical watch:

France and other countries were set to join Australia, Britain, Portugal, and Canada in recognizing a Palestinian state at the UN general assembly in New York.

France's rating downgrade:

France's credit rating was downgraded again within a week as following a downgrade by Fitch, Morningstar DBRS, on September 20, downgraded the rating to AA from AA (high) due to a deterioration in the outlook for its public finances amid challenges posed by growing domestic political fragmentation and reduced policy consensus in recent years.

Indian Rupee under pressure:

The Indian Rupee is under pressure on concerns over H1 visa fees hike, which supports domestic gold prices per se.

Gold Price Outlook:

Gold supported by a confluence of bullish factors like Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical concerns, and political and fiscal worries is likely to trade with a positive bias. Healthy ETF inflows also support the bullish bias.
The yellow metal may rise to $3800/$3850 in the coming months. Long-term target is $4000.
The Fed Chair Powell’s speech on September 23 could be somewhat hawkish so that constitutes a possible downside risk to gold prices.
Nonetheless, overall outlook remains positive and buy the dips remains the preferred strategy.
Support is at $3700 (MCX gold October contract Rs 110,900)/$3650 (Rs 109,400). Resistance is at $3775 (Rs 113,200)/$3800 (Rs 113,900)/$3850 (Rs 115,400).
MCX gold rates at USDINR rate of Rs 88.29.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

Follow Us On

Gold price prediction today: Gold rates expected to maintain positive trend in coming months - is it the right time to buy?

About the Author

TOI Business Desk

Start a Conversation

Follow Us On Social Media

Your Privacy is Important to us

Opt out of the sale or sharing of personal information

Follow Us On

Trending

Gold price prediction today: Gold rates expected to maintain positive trend in coming months - is it the right time to buy?

About the Author

TOI Business Desk

Start a Conversation

Follow Us On Social Media