India-US trade deal unlikely to prompt near-term decline in India’s imports of Russian crude oil

NEW DELHI: The India-US trade deal is unlikely to lead to a near-term reduction in India’s imports of Russian crude oil, with supplies to be stopped from sanctioned entities such as Rosneft and Lukoil.

While govt is yet to comment on US President Donald Trump's claim that India will stop Russian crude purchases, officials pointed out that supplies had come down from Nov due to the sanctions on the two entities.


“The deal is unlikely to result in a near-term reduction in India’s Russian crude imports. Russian volumes remain largely locked in for the next 8-10 weeks and continue to be economically critical for India’s complex refining system, supported by deep discounts on Urals relative to ICE Brent,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, a data and analytics provider.

Data show that Russia’s share in India’s crude imports declined to 33.7% between April and Nov 2025, compared with 37.9% during the corresponding period in 2024, while US share rose to 8.1% from 4.6%. According to Kpler, Russian crude imports fall from 1.8 million barrels a day in Nov to 1.2 million in Dec and 1.16 million in Jan 2026.

Experts said imports are expected to remain broadly stable through first and second quarters of 2026-27, with the recent moderation likely to be offset by higher inflows from West Asia. A rapid disengagement, they added, would be commercially challenging and politically sensitive, making policy-driven recalibration gradual rather than immediate.

Though Russia’s share of India’s crude imports appears high in recent years, it stood at just about 2% before the Ukraine war in 2022. Prior to that, nearly two-thirds of India’s crude oil and petroleum product imports came from West Asia, a share that fell to around 45% in 2025.

While Trump has said India will increase oil purchases from the US and possibly Venezuela, experts said Indian refiners are more likely to turn to West Asia suppliers to replace any potential reduction in Russian imports.

Energy expert Narendra Taneja said India’s crude sourcing has always been driven by price rather than geography. “India has diversified its oil imports and now sources crude from 41 countries.”