‘Indian aviation may lose Rs 18,000 cr this fiscal, up from Rs 5600 in FY25:’ ICRA

NEW DELHI: Credit rating agency ICRA has projected a sharp rise in India aviation industry’s losses to Rs 17,000-18,000 crore in FY2026, compared to Rs 5,600 crore in FY2025, due to multiple factors like slowing domestic traffic growth, increase in jet fuel prices and the depreciating rupee. Additionally, 133 aircraft of Indian carriers — representing 15-17% of the total capacity — are grounded for a number of reasons that puts supply side pressure too.

Calendar year 2025 is seen as one of the worst years for Indian aviation due to the tragic AI 171 Ahmedabad crash, IndiGo schedule collapse, Delhi ATC software issue and many other events.

“The Indian aviation sector is under sustained financial and operational pressure, with growth momentum moderating and industry losses widening…. due to operational disruptions, elevated forex losses, higher cost structures and slowing passenger traffic growth,” ICRA said.

Domestic air passenger traffic in December 2025 declined by 3.9% YoY to 143.4 lakh passengers, and fell 5.9% sequentially from November 2025. For the full year, ICRA now expects FY2026 domestic air passenger traffic growth of just 0–3%, reaching 165–170 million, revised downward from earlier estimates of 4–6%. International traffic remains relatively resilient.




“Domestic capacity deployment in Dec 2025 declined by 7.3% YoY and 7.6% MoM, with around 91,769 departures, largely due to large-scale operational disruptions at IndiGo, including around 4,500 flight cancellations in early December 2025.”

“Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) continues to be a major cost variable. In January 2026, ATF prices were 2.2% higher YoY, but 7.2% lower sequentially. For FY2025, average ATF prices stood at ₹95,181/KL, down 8.0% YoY. Fuel costs account for 30–40% of airlines’ operating expenses, while 35–50% of total operating costs are dollar-denominated, exposing airlines to exchange rate volatility.”

“The continued weakening of the rupee against the USD in FY2026 has resulted in significant foreign exchange losses, with further pressure expected in Q3 FY2026. The industry’s interest coverage ratio is projected at 0.7–0.9 times in FY2026, reflecting stressed financial sustainability.”