Indian carriers to order 1,700 planes in next two plus years: CAPA India

NEW DELHI: Indian airlines could order upto 1,700 aircraft over the next few years, with Tata Group’s Air India accounting for nearly 500 of them and other carriers — led by another mega order from IndiGo of about 500 planes — for the remaining 1,200.

The CAPA-Centre for Aviation (India) said this aircraft order will come in the next “12-24 plus months” as India has emerged as the “most promising aviation market” globally post Covid with both air travel recovering very strongly and aviation infrastructure being built at a rapid pace.

“… as of today, the (Indian) market remains highly under-penetrated. The total commercial Indian fleet of around 700 aircraft is (less than the fleet size of) of some of the world’s largest individual airlines… immense potential exists, need to induct more aircraft. Based on CAPA India’s proprietary traffic forecasts for the next decade and beyond, combined with our assessment of aircraft retirement cycles, we expect Indian carriers will place orders for around 1,500-1,700 aircraft over the next 12-24 plus months,” a CAPA India report said.

The Tata Group is expected to order about 500 aircraft, both single and twin aisles from both Airbus and Boeing, for the new Air India that they are creating by bringing four airlines under the Maharaja’s umbrella — merging Vistara into AI to create a big full service carrier and merging erstwhile AirAsia India into AI Express to have a mega low cost carrier (LCC) under the single AI brand.

While this “order is expected to be of record proportions, it is to a large extent making up for the growth deficit that AI has experienced over the last decade and more,” the report says adding that Tatas may have to place another order “sooner than later” after taking into account aircraft that needs to be replaced from their airlines’ fleet.

Indian carrier currently have 800 planes on order of which IndiGo accounts for 500 and this number could swell to 1,300 as and when the AI order is placed. About domestic market leader IndiGo, CAPA India estimates an order for 500 aircraft — up from its pre-Covid estimate of 300.

Given global supply chain constraints sparked by Covid and aggravated by Russia’s war on Ukraine, Airbus and Boeing had 12,669 unfulfilled orders as on December 31, 2022. “Delivery slots are very hard to come by for at least the next couple of years, while for narrow bodies the situation is tight until 2029,” the report says.

Therefore to secure timely delivery slots, other India carriers like Akasa and GoAir will need to place orders “with a sense of urgency”.