Indian exports to hit $1 trillion soon? Exporters expect boost from trade deals with US, EU

Indian exporters are hoping that the country’s goods and services outflows could touch $1 trillion in 2026-27, supported by the recently signed trade agreements with the United States and the European Union. The anticipated surge comes as the US has reduced tariffs on Indian products from 50% to 18%, opening the door for more orders across sectors.

"Orders have begun coming in for chemicals, shoes and marine products. We expect more orders to come in the next 10-15 days. India's exports in FY27 could rise to $1,000 billion," S C Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) told ET.




The US-India trade pact, expected to be implemented soon, and the EU deal, likely to take effect by year-end and are seen as key drivers for growth.

Under the first phase of the bilateral agreement with the US, reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will fall from 25% to 18%. Washington has also revoked the 25% tariffs imposed earlier due to India’s purchase of Russian crude oil imports, which the US claimed was fueling Moscow’s “war machine” in Ukraine.

Ramesh Juneja, chairman of the Council for Leather Exports, noted India’s current limited share in the US market. "We have only 3% share in the US while China has 35% share, but China has a higher tariff of 34%. We expect orders to come in but we don't have that much capacity," he told ET. The council expects India’s leather and footwear exports, currently at Rs 18,000 crore, to rise by 30% in the first year and by another 50% subsequently, supported by expected foreign investment.

During the April-December period, exports of goods and services stood at $634.26 billion, marking a 4.3% year-on-year increase. Manu Gupta, chairman of the Toy Association of India, pointed out that two-thirds of global toy transactions occur in the US. Labour-intensive handmade toys, such as stuffed and wooden items requiring manual finishing, could benefit most from the tariff reductions.

Despite the tariff cuts, exporters have flagged the need for clarity on implementation timelines and provisions related to oil purchases. These issues are scheduled for discussion in a meeting with commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal on Wednesday, as the country moves to finalise its trade arrangements with both the US and the EU.