Tariff shock: Indian exports to US crash 28.5%; GTRI warns labour-heavy sectors hurt most, urges quick policy action

India’s exports to the United States saw a sharp fall of 28.5% between May and October 2025 as aggressive tariff hikes by Washington hit key sectors.

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), shipments dropped from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion during the period, coinciding with US duties rising from 10% in April to 25% in early August and then to 50% by late August.


GTRI said the sudden escalation made Indian goods among the most heavily taxed in the US market. By comparison, China faced tariffs of about 30%, while Japan’s stood near 15%.

The think tank categorised exports into three segments. Tariff-exempt goods such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products accounted for 40.3% of October exports but still slipped 25.8%, falling from $3.42 billion in May to $2.54 billion.

Uniform global tariff items — mainly iron, steel, aluminium, copper and auto parts — formed 7.6% of shipments and fell 23.8%, dropping from $629 million to $480 million.

The steepest damage came in labour-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, solar panels, textiles, garments, chemicals and seafood, which alone faced the 50% rate.

Exports in this group sank 31.2%, erasing nearly $1.5 billion.

GTRI noted that even tariff-free categories could not escape the impact. Smartphone exports, India’s biggest product line to the US, plunged 36% from $2.29 billion in May to $1.50 billion in October.

Monthly shipments tumbled sharply over the five months before showing a mild rebound in October. Pharmaceutical exports dipped 1.6%, while petroleum products fell 15.5%.

The think tank said the fall in metals and auto parts was linked more to weak US industrial demand since tariff treatment was uniform for all suppliers.

Against this backdrop, it urged the government to operationalise the Export Promotion Mission and push the US to remove an additional 25% Russia-related duty on Indian products.

GTRI said the Mission — announced in March and approved on November 12 — “still exists only on paper,” arguing that delays in schemes and disbursals could undermine its goals.

‘Nearly eight months into the fiscal year, no schemes are operational, while long-running programs such as the Market Access Initiative and the Interest Equalisation Scheme have made no payments this year," GTRI noted.

The initiative has an outlay of Rs 25,060 crore for 2025–26 to 2030–31 and aims to support MSMEs, first-time exporters and labour-intensive sectors.

The think tank said removing the extra tariff would halve the effective US burden to 25%, giving critical relief to Indian exporters.


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