The steep tariffs imposed on Indian exports to the US have triggered sharp debate among staffing specialists, with some flagging the risk of immediate job losses and others suggesting that India’s domestic demand and trade diversification could soften the blow.
“The recent imposition of additional US tariffs is expected to have a direct and substantial impact on India's employment landscape. This will especially impact those industries relying heavily on the US market for business continuity and growth,” Genius HRTech founder, chairman and managing director R P Yadav told PTI.
Yadav identified textiles, auto components, agriculture, and gems and jewellery as the most vulnerable sectors, warning that micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) will absorb the heaviest shock. He estimated that 2,00,000 to 3,00,000 jobs are at immediate risk, with textiles alone—being labour-intensive—potentially losing as many as 1,00,000 positions if the tariff regime remains in force for over six months.
He further cautioned that gems and jewellery hubs in Surat and SEEPZ, Mumbai, could also face widespread job losses due to shrinking demand and rising costs in the US market.
However, not all experts foresee an employment crisis. TeamLease Services Senior Vice President Balasubramanian Anantha Narayanan argued that India’s reliance on domestic consumption makes its job market less vulnerable than China’s.
“At this point in time, we aren't seeing any signs of a slowdown or loss of jobs. This also by extension means that our jobs are largely in service of domestic demand too, with the exception of some sectors like ITeS among others. Our exports to the USA are USD 87 billion, which is roughly about 2.2 per cent of our overall GDP. Largely pharma, electronics etc. won't be affected for now, which will further limit the export exposure to industries such as textiles, gems and jewellery among others,” he said, quoted PTI.
He also noted that the tariffs are yet to take effect, leaving space for possible negotiations. “On the other side, we've also had several positives by way of the recently closed FTA with the UK and other countries. Even if these US tariffs do come about, we'll definitely figure out a way of redirecting or diversifying our trade to other markets. Therefore, at this point in time, we aren't seeing any signs of a slowdown or loss of jobs. It's an evolving situation and we'll get to know more in due course of time,” Narayanan said.
According to him, the broader drag on employment stems from global consumption slowdown, tariff uncertainties, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
CIEL HR MD and CEO Aditya Mishra said the tariff scenario is unsettling exporters in sectors deeply tied to the American market—including electronics, textiles, gems and jewellery, auto components, leather, footwear, shrimp and engineering goods.
“Even industries outside the direct tariff ambit, like pharmaceuticals, are feeling the ripple effect through costlier upstream chemicals and materials,” Mishra said. He added that uncertainty could persist through the third quarter of this financial year as negotiations unfold.
While Mishra does not expect widespread layoffs, he noted that companies are already adopting cost-control measures—cutting discretionary spends, streamlining production, freezing hiring, and putting pressure on temporary and contractual roles. “The immediate pressure will be on temporary and contract roles, particularly shop-floor workers, artisans, sales and logistics staff, and some mid-level managers in export-led units. This will have a cascading effect on thousands of MSMEs in the supply chain, which collectively account for a large share of employment,” he warned.
Mishra also pointed to potential spillover risks for IT and global capability centres (GCCs). “The IT sector is already experiencing slow spending and hiring, and this additional uncertainty could delay its recovery further. GCCs are likely to take a cautious approach to hiring and investments until there is greater clarity on trade negotiations and market stability. If the tariff situation persists, India's market share in the US could shrink, leading to longer-term repercussions for exporters and the industries that depend on them,” he said.