When will BSE Sensex, Nifty50 resume their long-standing upward trend?

| TOI Business Desk | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Jun 5, 2024, 14:55 IST

Investors doubt Modi 3.0's reform capacity due to reliance on NDA... Read More

What’s the road ahead for BSE Sensex, Nifty50? Post Lok Sabha election results, investors are concerned about the ability of the Modi government to implement challenging reforms due to its reliance on NDA coalition partners. This fear has overshadowed greed on Dalal Street, with PSUs, smallcaps, and other high-performing Modi stocks bearing the brunt of the market crash.

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However, according to an ET report, such extreme fluctuations are common on election result days, with traders' minds dominated by either panic or euphoria. Historical data from the last three elections indicates that it usually takes about a week for implied volatility to return to pre-election levels.

Since 1991, the Nifty has generally delivered returns of +9% and +8% in the 3 and 6 months following Lok Sabha elections, respectively. This suggests that corrections or dips have typically presented buying opportunities in the long run.

JPMorgan analysts anticipate a post-election normalization of implied volatility in Indian equities, with the extent and pace largely dependent on foreign investor participation.

Also Read | Why Raamdeo Agarwal believes Indian markets will double in next 5-6 years despite Modi-led NDA's less than predicted mandate

"With the election behind us, the Indian equity market is likely to resume its long-standing upward trend. We recommend positioning for potential spot-up and volatility-down scenarios by buying Nifty call spreads funded by selling puts," it was quoted as saying.

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While JPMorgan maintains its year-end Nifty target at 22,000, Bernstein has kept its view of high single-digit returns with an unchanged target of 23,500. Bernstein believes that the medium-term growth story in India remains intact, as strong cycles that have begun are likely to sustain themselves.

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However, India's high valuations are a concern for foreign institutional investors (FIIs). The Nifty, at 19x, remains above its 18-year historical average PE, placing it at the 85th percentile and well over 1 standard deviation above the average.

This also makes India one of the most expensive markets globally, with its premium to Asia Ex-Japan and EM peers more than 1 standard deviation above the historical average.

UBS remains underweight on India in an emerging market context, questioning the assumptions behind India's rich valuations, such as political stability and policy certainty afforded by a strong government.

Top 10 Largest Economies In The World

Top 10 Largest Economies In The World: India is all set to become the world’s third largest economy in the coming few years. But what is India’s current ranking in the world’s top 10 economies by nominal GDP size? Where do America and China stand? Did you know that at the current level, the USA's GDP is 7 times that of India? As per the latest IMF data sourced from EY, we take a look the world’s top 10 economies and their projected GDP in the coming years: (AI image)

The United States of America or the USA leads the list of top 10 largest economies in terms of nominal GDP for the year 2023 as per IMF’s estimates. The GDP for 2023 stands at $27,357.825 billion and the expected GDP for 2024 is at $28,781.083 billion. The IMF outlook till 2029 predicts that America will continue to be the world’s largest economy, with an expected GDP of $34,950.012 billion. (AI image)

As of 2023, China’s GDP according to IMF estimates stands at $17,662.041 billion. In 2024, China’s GDP is expected to rise to $18,532.633 billion in 2024, moving to $24,842.337 billion in 2029. China is likely to maintain the tag of the world’s second largest economy. (AI image)

Germany stands at the third rank in the list of world’s largest economies with a GDP of $4,457.366 billion in 2023. In 2024, Germany’s GDP Is likely to be around $4,591.1 billion and in 2029 it will likely be near $5,358.074 billion. According to IMF estimates, Germany would lose the tag of the world’s third largest economy 2027 to India. (AI image)

Japan is the world’s fourth largest economy with a GDP of $4,212.944 billion in 2023. Japan’s nominal GDP has been declining for the last few years and by 2025 it is likely to lose the spot of the 4th largest economy to India. In 2029, Japan’s GDP is expected to be around $4,944.744 billion. (AI image)

India is the fifth largest economy in the world with a GDP of $3,572.078 billion in 2023 according to the latest IMF data. In 2024, India’s GDP is expected to be $3,937.011 billion and in 2025 it will likely become the fourth largest economy with a GDP of $4,339.83 billion. IMF estimates predict that in 2027, India will beat Germany to become the third largest world economy with a GDP of $5,287.04 billion. By 2029, India’s GDP is expected to be around $6,436.653 billion. (AI image)

The United Kingdom or UK, with a GDP of $3,344.744 billion in 2023, is the sixth largest economy in the world. In 2024, its GDP is expected to be near $3495.261 billion and by 2029 the nominal GDP would be around $4661.463 billion, according to IMF projections. (AI image)

France is the world’s seventh largest economy with a GDP of $3,031.778 billion in 2023. Its nominal GDP is expected to grow to $3,130.014 billion in 2024 and reach $3,645.286 billion by 2029, predicts the IMF. (AI image)

With a GDP of $2,255.503 billion, Italy is the 8th largest economy in the world as per IMF’s 2023 data. Italy’s economy is expected to reach a size of $2,328.028 billion in 2024 and $2,625.878 billion by 2029. According to IMF estimates, in 2024 Italy will slip a level in rankings to 9th spot with Brazil moving up. (AI image)

Brazil is currently the world’s ninth largest economy with a nominal GDP of $2,173.671 billion in 2023. In 2024, it is expected to become the 8th largest economy with a GDP of $2,331.391 billion, leaving behind Italy. By 2029, it will likely have a GDP of $3,058.227 billion. (AI image)

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Top Comment

Mahendra Vir Saxena

196 days ago

Someone who is in jail for the last five years, could not be sentenced by the courts. What type the legal system we have. Is it not strange that persons who are indulged in terrorist activities can contest elections and win. Then they need to escorts to Parliament to take oath. Can an oath by terrorist be a genuine oath?

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