Donald Trump tariff fallout: Trade tensions linger as China posts slower export growth; US shipments plunge 33%

China’s exports expanded in August but missed forecasts, weighed down by a sharp fall in shipments to the United States despite gains in Europe and Southeast Asia, official data showed Monday.

According to news agency AFP, overall exports rose 4.4% year-on-year, lower than the 5.5% forecast by Bloomberg and down from July’s 7.2% growth.


Shipments to the US, China’s largest single-country partner, sank 11.8% from July and 33.1% from a year earlier. However, exports to the European Union climbed 10.4%, while those to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations jumped 22.5%.

Imports also grew at a slower pace, rising 1.3% against expectations of 3.4%, AFP reported.

Imports totalled $219.5 billion, contributing to a trade surplus of $321.8 billion in August, although this marked the slowest export pace since early 2025, according to news agency AP.

Analysts pointed to fading “frontloading” effects, where exporters had accelerated shipments ahead of tariff hikes. “The resilience of Beijing’s exports this year can also be attributed to Chinese businesses pushing for higher market share in other countries, exacerbated by weak domestic demand,” said Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management, as quoted by AFP.

Yue Su of the Economist Intelligence Unit said that “trade diversion remains evident”, reflecting supply-chain diversification to avoid tariffs, a trend also seen in the first US-China trade war.

The numbers come as Beijing grapples with weak factory output, a property sector debt crisis and high youth unemployment.

In August, Washington and Beijing had extended their tariff truce until November 10, freezing US duties at 30% and Chinese levies at 10%. Reuters noted that analysts expect exports to face pressure in coming months, with Capital Economics warning that “the temporary boost from the US-China trade truce is fading.”

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly highlighted America’s leverage over China in the ongoing trade dispute. Speaking in August, he said Washington holds “incredible cards” over Beijing and added, “But I don’t want to play those cards. If I did, that would destroy China. I’m not going to play those cards”.

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Trump also singled out China’s rare earths policy, warning that unless Beijing supplied the US with magnets, “we have to charge them 200% tariff or something”.

Despite the truce, trade flows have been hit this year, with US imports of Chinese goods down about 15% in the first half of 2025, and American exports to China falling roughly 20% year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing strain in bilateral trade relations.