Pre-monsoon rainfall deficit up 72.3% as El Nino looms

Panaji: With the summer entering its peak phase, only stray showers at isolated places have been recorded so far during almost two months, as the deficit of pre-monsoon rainfall rose to 72.3% on the weekend.

An average of 8.7mm of pre-monsoon rain would be normal at this stage. But the India Meteorological Department (IMD) recorded only 2.4mm during the season since March 1. The rainfall recorded was just 0.1mm during the 24-hour phase till the morning of March 25, 1.2mm on April 3, 0.4mm on April 21 and 0.7mm on April 24.

Five centres have not recorded any rain so far, while Quepem tops with 10.8mm. Among other centres, Sanquelim recorded 6.2mm, Valpoi and Dharbandora 4.2mm each, Mormugao 3.4mm, Sanguem 2.3mm, Dabolim 2.2mm and Old Goa 1.1mm.

“Climatologically, Goa should receive 2.9mm, 6.6mm and 81.3mm for the months of March, April and May whereas only 2.4mm has been recorded till Saturday morning,” M R Ramesh Kumar, a meteorologist and chief scientist (retired) of NIO, Dona Paula said.

So far, it has been one of the worst pre-monsoon.

The maximum pre-monsoon rainfall is recorded during May, while both March and April contribute. “This year, rainfall has been insignificant while the temperatures are rising,” he stated.

Occurrence of El Nino near Peru in South America may influence the southwest monsoon in India. “But its impact cannot be predicted as there are other phenomena like Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), especially a positive IOD which can suppress the effect of El Nino,” Kumar said.

This has been observed during several El Nino years, including the strongest one of the century, in 1997, he said.

Brisk showers in some parts of Goa after dusk brought some relief even as IMD issued another nowcast for rain just after 8pm.