Kerala assembly elections: Cracks in red fortress? Reality or just an illusion

By: KP Saikiran

PAYYANNUR: Payyanur's present political identity stands in sharp contrast to its past. From being one of the most vibrant centres of Congress-led freedom movement, the constituency has, over the decades, transformed into one of the most dependable strongholds of CPM, with an uninterrupted record of electing party candidates since its formation. But for the first time, CPM is under pressure.

The scale of CPM's dominance is evident in election data over the past decade, though it also reveals an undercurrent. In 2011, Left secured 78,116 votes against UDF's 45,992, winning by 32,124 votes, while BJP remained largely irrelevant with 5,019.

The peak of Left's electoral strength came in 2021. CPM's T I Madhusoodanan, who currently faces serious financial misappropriation charges, secured 93,695 votes against UDF's 43,915, stretching the margin to 49,780 votes. BJP's vote stood at 11,308, once again underlining its limited relevance. But the trajectory did not remain linear. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Left's tally in Payyanur assembly segment dropped to 71,441 while UDF's rose to 58,184, cutting the margin to 13,257 votes. Though parliamentary contests follow different dynamics, the dip in margin signalled that the gap is not beyond compression. The 2025 civic polls, however, showed Left's grassroots machinery remains intact, with the front securing a combined majority of 34,807 votes.

Geographically too, Payyanur presents a contrast that feeds into its development narrative. The constituency stretches from the coastal belt of Kunnaru-Ramanthali — home to the Indian Navy's academy INS Zamorin — to the hilly terrain of Pulingome along Karnataka border. While the coastal region remains well-connected, the high-range areas continue to face long-standing connectivity issues. A decades-old proposal to build a road linking the naval academy region to Bagamandala in Karnataka, providing a shorter route to Bengaluru, has seen little progress.

Key urban infrastructure projects within Payyanur town remain stalled. "The proposal for a new bus stand, for which land acquisition was completed as early as 1995, has not moved forward, leaving the town struggling with space constraints and traffic congestion. Similarly, a theatre complex announced during the first LDF govt with KIIFB support remains incomplete," said Suresh Manniath, a Payyanur town-based entrepreneur. These unresolved projects have become part of local political conversations.

What adds a new dimension to this political reading is the emergence of dissent within CPM. The allegation by former CPM district committee member V Kunhikrishnan that nearly Rs 1 crore was misappropriated from three area committee funds exposed internal fault lines. His exit from the party and entry into the fray as a UDF-backed independent has become a major headache for CPM, turning Payyanur into one of the most watched constituencies.

Kunhikrishnan's revolt is not isolated. A more localised manifestation is seen in the case of Payyanur municipal councillor C Vysakh, once a committed DYFI worker who left the party ahead of Lok Sabha elections. Vysakh says his exit was triggered by an incident in which two DYFI activists working under him were allegedly threatened by local CPM workers. According to him, the issue was escalated up to state leadership, but the outcome deepened his disillusionment. "An inquiry commission was appointed, but its report was shocking. Imagine, something that almost a hundred people saw with their eyes was completely manipulated in the report. And no action was taken against them," he said. Vysakh said he was gradually sidelined before he left the party.

Vysakh echoes the broader criticism raised by Kunhikrishnan. "Inquiry commissions are a ploy. They are appointed to save whom the party wants to save," he said. Despite leaving CPM, he continues to command support in his locality. Contesting as a rebel in Kara ward of the municipality in the last local body elections, he won by 458 votes pushing CPM candidate to third spot

Observers find these developments a subtle shift within Payyanur. The constituency may still be within the Left's orbit, but the combination of fluctuating margins, internal dissent and unresolved development issues suggests that its status as an impregnable fortress may no longer be beyond question.

Vysakh believes dissent among CPM cadres could alter the outcome. "Kunhikrishnan stands a strong chance of winning in Payyanur. The margins keep fluctuating. That itself shows there isn't any real consistency," he said.