Will the Strait of Hormuz prove as a tough nut to crack for Western allies as the Red Sea? Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after US and Israel’s clashes with Iran, Tehran has restricted access to most of the strait, allowing only a few countries’ ships to pass. Western nations trying to secure the waterway for energy shipping face a harsh reality: a similar operation in the Red Sea years ago cost billions of dollars and ultimately failed against Yemen’s Houthis.
Hormuz blockade sends oil prices soaring
The Red Sea operation sank four ships, spent over $1 billion on weapons, and still left shippers avoiding the route. Now, the more complex Strait of Hormuz—used for roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas—is blocked by a stronger adversary, Iran.
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Iran’s threats to the strait and attacks on nearby energy infrastructure have sent oil prices soaring, causing the worst disruption to global oil and gas supplies in history. Without the strait reopening, shortages could worsen, raising costs for energy, food, and other products worldwide.
"There is no substitute for the Strait of Hormuz," Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah said in a video call to the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston on Tuesday.
"It is the world’s strait, under international law and practical reality."
UN security council members were negotiating resolutions to protect the strait, with some nations, such as Bahrain, pushing for authorization to use "all necessary means," including force.
Red Sea lessons loom large
Nineteen security and maritime experts told Reuters that the US and its allies face major challenges in protecting the strait. Iran has far more advanced military forces than the Houthis, with missiles, cheap drones, floating mines, and easy access from its mountainous coast to the narrow waterway.
"Defending convoy operations in the Strait of Hormuz is significantly more challenging than in the Red Sea," said retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, who escorted tankers through the strait during the Iran-Iraq war in 1988.
The challenge is a concern for US President Donald Trump as he seeks to justify the Iran war ahead of November midterm elections, with gasoline prices nearing $4 a gallon. Analysts say energy prices will not fully stabilize until the strait reopens.
Trump has been noncommittal about US involvement, first saying the Navy would escort ships when needed, then suggesting other nations take the lead. Since joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, most ships have been blocked from passing the strait.
Iran is reportedly considering charging fees for vessels wanting to use the strait, an Iranian lawmaker told state media last week.
Iran’s military edge makes protection tough
The US mission to protect Red Sea shipping from the Houthis began in December 2023, later joined by European nations. Despite shooting down hundreds of drones and missiles, Houthis still sank four ships between 2024 and 2025. Shippers now largely avoid the route, which once carried 12% of global trade, opting for a longer journey around the Horn of Africa.
"It was a tactical and operational victory and a strategic draw, if not a strategic defeat," said Joshua Tallis, a naval analyst at CNA.
The danger zone around the Strait of Hormuz is five times larger than the Houthis’ area near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. Unlike the Houthis, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a professional military with its own weapons factories and funding.
Protecting the Strait will be complex and costly
Securing the strait would require a dozen large warships such as destroyers, supported by jets, drones, and helicopters, according to military experts. Overhead air cover is critical to counter flying drones and explosive-laden vessels blending with normal sea traffic.
"A destroyer can intercept missiles but cannot simultaneously sweep mines, counter drone-boat swarms from multiple bearings, and manage GPS disruption," said SSY analysts.
Analysts say the IRGC has missile and drone stockpiles hidden in buildings and caves along hundreds of miles of steep coastline. In some areas, drones could swarm a ship in five to ten minutes.
"There are ballistic missiles, drones, floating mines, and even if you were able to destroy those three capacities, there are suicide operations," said Adel Bakawan, director of the European Institute for Studies on the Middle East and North Africa.
Sea mines and heavily armed mini-submarines are also a threat the US did not face in the Red Sea, said retired Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe. "If (the Americans) lose a destroyer in this ... that changes the calculus of everything. That's 300 people," he said.
There is no clear evidence that Iran has mined the strait, US defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month.
Experts say a combination of mine-clearing, military escorts, and air patrols could eventually reopen the strait. "You might have to do that for months before you have finally eroded the IRGC threat," said Bryan Clark, an autonomous warfare expert at the Hudson Institute.