The hantavirus outbreak linked to MV Hondius has now crossed 10 global cases, and people are nervous, wondering if this is “COVID-2.0.” Quarantines and monitoring continue in Europe, North America, Canada, and Australia, and the nerves around this outbreak are running wild. Search traffic for hantavirus symptoms and fatality rates has surged.
But is it really COVID-2.0? Are we on the verge of yet another pandemic?
Top World Health Organization epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove took the issue head-on during a briefing this week.
As reported by The Telegraph, she made it clear: this outbreak is serious and deserves watching. But it’s not COVID-19 or bird flu; it’s a very different kind of threat.
WHO’s verdict on the hantavirus outbreak
When the outbreak first appeared on the cruise, Van Kerkhove’s mind jumped straight to bird flu, and she felt a wave of dread. The initial patients had been watching birds in Argentina, where
avian influenza is common. Plus, the cluster of three cases pointed to rapid spread. If it had been bird flu, she said, “that would have been a bit more concerning.”
Everyone breathed a sigh of relief when South African labs ruled out bird flu and legionnaire’s disease, confirming Andes hantavirus instead. For a moment, Van Kerkhove felt like they dodged a bullet. “It’s strange but yes, I was relieved that it wasn’t a zoonotic influenza, because of the link with the first three cases,” she said, adding, “If it had turned out to be a zoonotic influenza, and we already knew there were three cases epidemiologically linked … that would have been a bit more concerning.”
Still, with a high fatality rate and person-to-person transmission possible, she calls this the “make or break” stage for the response.
Now, we’re about to find out if the outbreak fizzles out or kicks off a new chain of infections. There’s no vaccine, no treatment for Andes hantavirus, and the fatality rate can reach 50%. It’s the only hantavirus capable of human-to-human spread, including “super spreader” events. On the cruise, 11 people got infected, and three died.
Now, 88 passengers and 59 crew from 23 countries have disembarked in Tenerife. About 30 others who left MV Hondius early have also been tracked down.
Van Kerkhove says, “The challenge right now is how the quarantine unfolds. This is a critical period.” Since the WHO heard about the outbreak on May 2 (tipped off by UK officials), a global public health effort kicked in. WHO advises anyone exposed to spend 42 days in quarantine or self-isolation, with regular tests and medical care. Success or failure should be clear soon; most symptoms show up within two weeks, though the window can stretch up to six to eight weeks.
She says more positive cases may pop up because of rigorous testing among known contacts, adding, “but that doesn’t mean the outbreak is expanding – it means there’s more testing among [known contacts].” She worries about a woman in France now in the ICU, but other patients are improving.
Van Kerkhove is pretty upbeat about the global response. The outbreak has put pandemic systems to the test and pushed countries to work together. Labs in Argentina, South Africa, Senegal, the Netherlands, and Switzerland have been running tests and sequencing. Spain made sure passengers could safely disembark in Tenerife. Even as America’s exit from the WHO strained relations, information still flows.
“No one cares about politics,” she says. “We have a common goal: stop the outbreak. We don’t want a repeat of Covid, and this was never going to be that kind of repeat.”
WHO has made a point of not calling this the next pandemic, but they’re careful not to sound too reassuring, which is a lesson learned from the early days of COVID-19. Van Kerkhove says it’s important to speak with nuance about uncertainty and take a cautious approach. Everyone from the ship was considered high-risk from the start.
As for this outbreak, Van Kerkhove admits, “We don’t know everything about transmission. We’ve taken a precautionary approach in all of this, in every operation that we have, assuming that human to human transmission is more efficient than it probably is. But we just don’t know… in this outbreak we made the decision early on that everyone on the ship was considered high risk.”
Scientists are still piecing together how the Dutch couple caught Andes hantavirus. Theories about bird watching near a rubbish dump in Ushuaia are fading, and now Argentine researchers are sampling rodents along their travel route.
WHO lists the virus as a research priority, and scientists say the crisis might drive new investment in diagnostics, therapies, and maybe a vaccine.
Yet, Van Kerkhove says her biggest concern isn’t Andes hantavirus. Every week, her team deals with new outbreaks and potential risks. This situation stands out because so many countries are involved, but she never expected it to spiral out of control.
“Respiratory diseases [are] still my biggest concern – a flu pandemic, another coronavirus pandemic,” she says, adding, “My concerns are also around arboviruses [like dengue and Zika] because the vectors are moving further north and further south, and we’re seeing transmission in areas that never experienced it before.”
For Maria Van Kerkhove, diseases like hantavirus, Ebola, and Marburg tend to be self-limiting because they don’t spread efficiently. They can do huge damage when they show up, but they don’t have pandemic potential like COVID or the flu.
As for the world, it’s watching and waiting. Will this outbreak fizzle or lead to more cases? For now, a coordinated international response is holding the line.
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