Assembly election results 2026: Assam & Bengal verdicts shift the minority needle

NEW DELHI: Bengal and Assam poll results have thrown up a challenge for the Muslim community, which has been pushed into a political whirlpool post-2014 by BJP’s ‘communal card’ to polarise the majority community, coupled with controversial measures like delimitation and SIR.

BJP’s success in damping the largest minority community in Assam has followed the 2023 state-specific delimitation. By one estimate, the seats where Muslims held sway fell from 35/126 seats to 20. A similar measure in Jammu & Kashmir created seven new seats, which, according to the opposition, were ‘tailored’ to help BJP.



While the opposition has dubbed it “legalised rigging”, chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has openly asserted that he has done the delimitation to marginalise influence of the anti-BJP religious group. Assam and J&K delimitations were flagged by every opposition MP during the recent debate in Parliament.

In the storm kicked up by Election Commission’s SIR exercise, the big charge has revolved around ‘disenfranchisement’ of Muslims. The edge of the twin measures — SIR and delimitation — has been compounded by BJP’s belligerent campaign focussed on polarising Hindus.

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With sweeping verdicts in favour of BJP in Bengal and Assam where the minority population is above the national average and where communal outreach became the mobilisational theme, the governing party would be encouraged to step up on its winning formula.

This could further test the community at the receiving end of BJP, as it will agitate secular parties who cater to voters across the religious divide. Often, such situations can lead to secular parties being outflanked from the right, throwing up outfits exclusively representing minorities, illustrated by AIMIM’s growth in Bihar’s ‘Seemanchal’ region. AIMIM has sought to play this card in many states, and it remains to be seen what the Hyderabad party does in UP in 2027.

At the same time, the tricky situation can nudge BJP rivals to move towards diluting their overt secular positioning. A case in point is Assam, where 18 of 19 Congress winners may be Muslims. Such outcomes can rattle the best.

Besides delimitation and SIR, the political chatter has been agog with what some may call a “conspiracy theory” — BJP’s attempts to strengthen its hand by dividing Muslim votes, like Humayun Kabir launching a new party with an emotive religious card.

Such conundrum, and surprises, would solely be for the minorities and political rivals to grapple with, while BJP steps on the gas to consolidate the majority bloc.
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