Govt welcomes Trump back, Modi reminds him of good times

Despite the likely mercurial nature of his second term in office, Donald Trump’s return to the White House is not just an acceptable but a desired outcome of the US presidential elections for India, given the previous Trump presidency’s perceived convergence of interests with India on strategic issues and his rapport with PM Narendra Modi. Unsurprisingly, Modi was among the first heads of government to congratulate "friend" Trump for his historic win, shortly after the latter’s victory speech in Florida.

“As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,’’ said Modi in a post on X, which was embellished with photos from his engagements with the president-elect in the past including during his India visit in 2020.

According to former foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla, who also served as India’s ambassador to the US during the previous Trump administration, his dramatic comeback is good news for India. “The Modi government has worked closely with him in the past and he also has a good relationship with the PM,’’ says Shringla, adding Trump’s focus on ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza also suits India.

Trump’s previous term in office saw strong strategic convergence with India, especially on issues like counterterrorism and Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. While there are concerns among some of US partners in the region about his contempt for multilateralism and his sceptical attitude towards alliances, India’s experience with Trump 1.0 inspires confidence among Indian officials that he will start from where he left off. It was under Trump that Quad was upgraded to the ministerial level and foundational military agreements like BECA and COMCASA signed with India. Significantly, it was also under Trump that the term Indo-Pacific, a euphemism for calling China out for its expansionism, gained traction. “You have to give credit to Trump for his strategic vision. He introduced the term Indo-Pacific to the global lexicon by renaming US Pacific Command to US Indo-Pacific Command,’’ says Shringla.

While the Biden administration worked to take the relationship forward, most notably with the landmark Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) that envisages access to cutting-edge defence technology for India, its efforts to push India into the dock on murder-for-hire plots in both Canada and US, allegedly involving Indian officials, struck a sour note in the relationship.

The Pannun case will continue to be pursued by the US but it’s unlikely it will get the kind of salience from Trump as it did from the Biden administration. The government will also expect Trump administration to be more responsive to its concerns related to anti-India activities of Khalistan separatists in both US and Canada.

Trump’s victory also spares Indian officials the trouble of dealing with a relatively unknown quantity in Harris, who is unlikely to have been as forgiving as Trump of the alleged human rights violations and democratic backsliding in India. Harris riled the Indian government when she said in 2019 that there’s a need to intervene in Kashmir if the situation demands, although later, as vice president, she chose to have a more pragmatic approach to contentious international issues.

India’s main concern with Trump, however, will remain his transactional approach to trade and likely restrictive immigration policies. Trump, who will look to find ways to cut down the $ 30 billion trade deficit with India, had terminated India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) in 2019 accusing the Indian government of not providing equitable access to its markets. Shringla, however, is hopeful the 2 sides will look to address trade issues by restarting negotiations for a free trade agreement. “We were at an advanced stage of negotiations with the Trump administration to find a solution in the form of a free trade agreement. There’s no reason why we can’t use the same playbook now,’’ he says, adding that Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports worth $ 360 billion also helped India ramp up its exports.

With the Republicans flipping the Senate, and practically no opposition left to him within the GOP, Trump 2.0 will also likely be more assertive and uncompromising. How he chooses to exercise his executive powers on US immigration policies, particularly the H1B visa programme, will also be closely followed by India. While Shringla says Trump will look to plug illegal immigration and streamline legal immigration, which works to India’s advantage, another former ambassador to US Arun K Singh says clampdowns on H1B like in the past are unlikely to work. “Given the shortage of skilled professionals in the US, it’s in the interests of American companies to hire workers from India,’’ says Singh.