Glimmer of hope for Manipur's 'democracy at gun-point'

As Manipur goes to polls in two phases, on February 27 and March 3, the state is at a crossroads. It can either continue with the performative democracy it has been for decades, or catalyse real change across the Northeast. One of my first memories of elections in Manipur were the colourful election symbols that flooded our localities in Imphal. Badges, banners and candidate posters were plastered almost everywhere. Candidates outstretched folded hands, begging for votes. There was hardly any debate. Rather, elections were like big shows involving announcements, feasts, liquor and distribution of money. We also saw former contractors, drug traffickers, money launderers, jailed militants, men with connection to armed groups and gangs becoming part of the performative democracy. We hardly saw sincere, honest people get elected. Baggage of the past This year, too, nothing much has changed. It is a similar performance that is being staged. The actors remain the same: Congress, BJP, National People’s Party (NPP), Naga People’s Front (NPF), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), TMC, CPI, Republican Party of India-Athawale, Shiv Sena and a few independents. In the last 2017 elections, Congress was the single-largest party with 28 seats. However, BJP, which got 21 seats, engaged in horse trading to form the government with the support of four NPP members of legislative assembly, four members of NPF, one TMC and one independent member. As of January, eight MLAs of Congress plus one TMC MLA have reportedly joined BJP, and there are multiple candidates seeking BJP tickets leading to the breaking out of violence and infighting. With 31 as the magic number to form the government in the state, there are attempts by smaller parties to form poll alliances. Sources mention the ongoing negotiation of NPF with BJP, while there is already an alliance between BJP and NPP at the Centre and in Meghalaya. As of now, BJP has 30 MLAs and Congress has 20. Democracy at gun-point BJP, after much delay, announced on January 29 candidates for all 60 assembly constituencies. While it was banking on the promise of good governance and development, the situation following the announcement has been filled with dismay with violence erupting in several parts of Manipur. Protesters took to tearing down flags and banners saying that BJP had not remained true to the values it espouses. Plus, the fielding of political dynasts and candidates charged with drug-trafficking has led to an outpouring of anger. Even with regard to women candidates, only three have been given tickets, contradicting the BJP state president who had earlier stated that more women candidates will be fielded this year. Given this scenario, larger issues such as the repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), Naga political imbroglio, boundary dispute with Myanmar etc, remain on the backburner. Thus, the current political environment remains unclear as to which party or group of parties has the edge in the upcoming polls. With electoral bonds and the majority of those funds going to the current ruling party, the latter will certainly try to press the advantage. However, the new phenomenon of use of guns and rise in violence leading up to the polls – already there have been several election related killings – means that democracy at gun-point continues to best exemplify Manipur. Green shoots of hope However, there are several new positive trends as well that are being viewed as strong beacons of hope. First, the emergence of several youth leaders and women who have entered the political fray. Youth in the state are now taking action and are aware of how change is critical. Second, there is a rise in local indigenous parties such as the Manipur People’s Party, NPF, and the recently formed Kuki People’s Alliance. These new political actors are part of a landscape of several indigenous political groups and alliances emerging across the Northeast. These include the TIPRA-Motha in Tripura, a newly formed indigenous political party that won a stunning majority in the 28-member Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections last year. If this trend continues, the election equation may change in Manipur too. The continued imposition of martial law, the debacle of CAA, attacks on minorities, attempts to distort indigenous history and way of worship, the ongoing Naga Peace Talks, the arrest and detention of journalists, denial of freedom of expression, the criminalisation of people’s movements, and Covid-related losses will also be deciding factors in the upcoming polls. For sustainable peace and development to come to Manipur, we must elect representatives who have the moral fibre to ensure that AFSPA is repealed and a truth and reconciliation commission is created to look into decades of war, protection of history, way of life and faith of indigenous peoples, thereby starting a process of healing. Only then can Manipur be a beacon of light in the Northeast. The writer is Founder-Director, Manipur Women Gun Survivors Network