Today's Chanakya exit poll: Mamata set to lose Bengal, status quo in Assam and Tamil Nadu; tight UDF–LDF race in Kerala

NEW DELHI: Exit poll predictions released on Thursday by Today’s Chanakya covered the upcoming assembly results in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Kerala.

The projections came a day after several other pollsters released their estimates for these states.

Today’s Chanakya, in its poll predictions for West Bengal, turned the current political picture on its head, giving a huge mandate to the BJP with 192 seats while pushing the 15-year-strong TMC rule into the opposition with a reduced tally of 100 seats. The latest prediction follows the trend, with at least four other pollsters giving the BJP an edge over Mamata Banerjee's party.











The numbers clearly indicate a possible end to Mamata Banerjee’s long rule in Bengal, paving the way for the BJP to form its first-ever government in the state after an intense and high-voltage campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah.

In Tamil Nadu, the pollster predicted that the MK Stalin-led DMK alliance will comfortably retain power, while the new political entrant TVK, led by Vijay, could dent the main opposition alliance led by the AIADMK, pushing Edappadi Palaniswamy’s chances of returning as chief minister to the margins.

The projections show 125 seats for Stalin’s DMK, 45 for the AIADMK, and 63 for Vijay’s TVK in the 234-member assembly.

According to Today’s Chanakya, the numbers represent the average seats parties are likely to win. The projections indicate a landslide victory for the BJP in Assam, suggesting another term for incumbent chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, while the Congress appears to be trailing with a huge margin, offering little comfort for Gaurav Gogoi in a state once ruled by his father Tarun Gogoi.

For Assam 2026, Today’s Chanakya projected a clear advantage for the BJP-led alliance, estimating between 93 and 111 seats, with an average of 102 seats. The Congress-led alliance is expected to secure between 14 and 32 seats, averaging 23 seats, while others are likely to remain marginal with 0 to 2 seats, averaging 1 seat.

In Kerala, the projections point to a neck-and-neck contest between the incumbent LDF and the main opposition UDF.

In Kerala 2026, the projections suggest a tightly contested battle between the two major fronts. The UDF is estimated to win between 60 and 78 seats, averaging 69 seats, closely followed by the ruling LDF at 55 to 73 seats, averaging 64 seats, pointing to a neck-and-neck race. The BJP is projected to secure between 3 and 11 seats, averaging 7 seats, while others are expected to get 0 to 1 seat, averaging 0 seats.

Seat projections for the other two major states West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are yet to be released.


Get the latest updates on Election 2026 exit poll results across Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Puducherry.