Coronavirus: The possible reason behind why Omicron variant may be more transmissible

Omicron - the new 'variant of concern' has sent shock waves around the world. Now identified in multiple countries, including India, it has led to a state of panic and chaos.

While experts believe that the new variant is heavily mutated, it could possibly evade vaccine immunity, which could mean higher transmissibility. But what's also important to note is that the new variant has not led to any casualties so far. There have been no hospitalization cases and people have recovered from mild infections, which is surely a sign of low severity. While it is difficult to determine why this is happening, experts have come up with different theories. Let us find out what they are.

Read also: Coronavirus: Why the new COVID variant is named Omicron

Since the onset of COVID-19 and due to the emergence of potentially dangerous variants, scientists and medical professionals have urged people to take all appropriate measures and promote mass vaccination.

However, as far as the history of pandemics go, viruses have evolved to become less dangerous. Many have said that over time, even the most deadly viruses lose their fatalistic character and become less virulent.

The evolution of any virus depends on how well it is transmitted from host to host. From an evolutionary perspective, harming it's host does not benefit the virus by any means. Rather, viruses that can spread and replicate are the ones that thrive and survive.

Having infiltrated the walls of several countries in such a short span of time, the Omicron is thought to be highly transmissible too. Fresh cases have been reported daily, since the onset of the new variant, and this has led to widespread concern. On the positive front, there have been no deaths or severe cases linked to the new variant.

Dr Angelique Coetzee, the chair of the South African Medical Association has said that there have been no reports of severe cases - no cases of hospitalization or low oxygen levels so far. While there is no confirmed data around whether the Omicron variant is more transmissible than the Delta, the South African doctor says that it is surely transmissible.

Since, existing data suggests that Omicron cases have been 'mild' so far, experts believe it to be the reason behind why they are more transmissible.

Recently, Dr Eli David, Researcher, Lecturer and a leading AI expert, took to Twitter, suggesting the same. "It (Omicron variant) may be highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild," he quoted the South African Medical Association. Further below, he wrote, "This makes a lot of sense. Less virulent mutations have greater evolutionary advantage. This is exactly how the Spanish flu ended."

Looking at the theoretical aspect of viral evolution, this could be a possibility. The idea dates back to the 1980s when evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald developed the "theory of virulence". The theory suggests the more virulent the germ, the less likely it is to spread. For instance, if a person becomes extremely sick to the extent of dying, then they can’t really spread the infection.

This means, if a virus wants to survive and evolve, they will have to lower their virulence, which in turn increases transmission.

There have been many historic instances where the viruses have become less dangerous and more transmissible over time. For example, the H1N1 influenza viruses, which were responsible for the 1918 “Spanish flu” and 2009 “swine flu” pandemics still exist, however are less severe.

There is no evidence to suggest that the SARs-COV-2 virus functions in the same way. If it does, then we may be looking forward to another cold virus that will become easy to manage. But up until now the COVID-19 variants that have emerged have only proved more dangerous than the previous one.

However, the new 'variant of concern' Omicron seems to share certain aspects of the theoretical approach. But again, much remains under speculation and experts believe more research is needed to confirm the same.