Global health study report: Life expectancy back to pre-pandemic levels, but teen and young adult deaths becoming ‘emerging crisis’

Talk about packing the good news with the bad one – all in one package.

The new global health study has delivered a mixed message: on one hand, the world is seeing a recovery. Life expectancy, the average number of years people are expected to live, has rebounded to levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this good news is accompanied by a deeply troubling trend: deaths among teens and young adults are rising in many places, prompting researchers to call this an “emerging crisis.”

This report, drawn from the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) analysis coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and published in The Lancet, pulled together data from over 300,000 sources and more than 16,500 scientists to chart mortality, causes of disease, and health risks across 204 countries and territories.

The underlying theme: the world as a whole is recovering from the shock of COVID, but not everyone is. Teenagers and young adults — who previously saw steady improvements — are now seeing reversals in mortality in many regions. But what are the factors that are driving this worrisome trend? More importantly, what could be done to put a lid on it?

Understanding the root cause of such an emerging crisis is imperative because when young lives are lost prematurely, the social, family, and economic costs are profound.

According to the latest research, life expectancy worldwide has largely returned to where it stood before the pandemic took hold. Across 204 countries and territories, mortality rates have declined overall, pulling life expectancy back to around 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men.

This reversal is significant because the pandemic had shaved off years of progress. The World Health Organization (WHO) notes that prior to COVID-19, global life expectancy rose from about 66.8 years in 2000 to 73.1 years in 2019. But the pandemic reversed almost a decade of gains.

Across global regions, the trends are uneven. Some high-income areas now see average life spans above 80 years. But in sub-Saharan Africa, life expectancy lags, hovering near 62 or lower in some places.

The study emphasizes that chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) — such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancers — now account for the majority of global disease burden, even in many low-middle income settings. However, more than half of the disease burden is considered preventable, linked to modifiable risks like high blood pressure, smoking, obesity, air pollution, and poor diet.

So yes, the world is “bouncing back” from the pandemic’s worst mortality spike. But it’s not all smooth sailing.

While most age groups have seen mortality improvements, the data show a troubling reversal for teens and young adults (approximately ages 10-29). Researchers describe the trend as “very marked increases” in death rates for some countries. The worrying sign: in many countries, death rates for young people are not falling as fast as for older groups — and in some places, they are rising. While Regional causes differ, some patterns stand out:

North America and parts of Latin America: In these parts of the world, rising deaths are linked with mental health issues, especially among young women. Suicide, drug overdoses, alcohol misuse, and self-harm are key drivers.

Sub-Saharan Africa: The leading causes of death in this region include preventable infectious diseases, unintentional injuries, maternal risks (for women), and gaps in health systems (e.g., vaccine access, emergency care).

Infectious and injury causes: In low-income settings, factors like road traffic accidents, lack of access to care for infections (HIV, malaria, tuberculosis), and maternal health issues are prominent and contributing factors to the death rates.

Previously undercounted mortality: The new modeling suggests that previous estimates of deaths in ages 5-14 were underestimated, meaning the trend is steeper than known.

These trends are especially alarming because the young have traditionally seen the fastest declines in mortality over decades. In richer nations, mental health struggles are seen playing an outsized role. Meanwhile, in lower-income settings, limited access to health care, weak health systems, road safety issues, and persistent infectious disease burdens continue to kill young people prematurely.

Several forces are behind this disturbing pattern. The report and accompanying research point to the following contributors:

Mental health crisis and substance abuse: Young people today face unprecedented levels of stress, digital isolation, social media pressures, and economic insecurity. These forces exacerbate depression, anxiety, and addiction — fueling suicides and overdoses.

Health systems and prevention gaps: Many health systems are designed for older and middle-aged populations. Screening, counseling, and prevention efforts for youth often are underfunded or underemphasized. In low-income countries, barriers to care are even more acute.

Social and economic inequality: Poverty, education gaps, food insecurity, and lack of opportunities amplify risks for younger generations. In regions with weak infrastructure, young people are more vulnerable to injuries, other external causes, and preventable diseases.

Pandemic ripple effects: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted mental health services, school and social support systems, and economic stability. The aftershocks — delays in care, social dislocation, and shifting norms — continue to hurt younger age groups.

The human toll of this emerging crisis is tragic. When teens or young adults die prematurely, the lost years ripple outward — affecting families, communities, and the future workforce. A rising young-adult mortality rate undermines social progress, economic growth, and equity.

Researchers and public health voices emphasize urgent measures:

Focus on youth-centered health: Instead of siloed approaches, health systems must integrate mental health, injury prevention, adolescent sexual and reproductive care, and chronic disease detection.

Stronger data systems: Information is a powerful tool. Better cause-of-death registration, youth surveys, and more granular age-group data can help identify where interventions are most needed.

Cross-sector policy: Education, urban planning, social supports, media regulation, and youth engagement should align with health aims.

Sustainable funding and global solidarity: Low-income countries need stable investment in their health systems. Donor funding and global institutions should prioritize youth health equity.

Public awareness and stigma reduction: Particularly around mental health, substance misuse, and youth well-being, social attitudes must shift to support early help-seeking.

Setting 2050 goals: The “Global Health 2050” vision advocates cutting premature deaths (before 70 years) by half from 2019 levels by 2050, with youth health as a pillar.