New variant pair BQ.1, BQ.1.1 on health expert's radar
COVID cases of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are rising. While these variants account for more than 24% of the COVID cases in the US, in India their numbers are increasing too.
The first such case of COVID was reported in India a few weeks before. Apart from these, variants are spreading rapidly in Europe, Singapore, and Canada as well.
These variants are among the 300 sub lineages of the Omicron variant circulating globally, 95% of which are direct descendants of BA.5.
ECDC predicts BQ.1, BQ.1.1 variants to become dominant by the beginning of December 2022
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has predicted that by mid November to the beginning of December 2022, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants might account for more than 50% of the COVID cases.
The prediction, which is based on modeling estimates, also says that by 2023 these variants could account for more than 80% of the cases.
Origin of these variants
Both BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are the variants of BA.5, which is an Omicron sub variant.
On October 27, the World Health Organisation (WHO) released a statement on the BQ.1.
"BQ.1 is a sublineage of BA.5, which carries spike mutations in some key antigenic sites, including K444T and N460K," it said and warned that it is showing a significant growth advantage over other circulating Omicron sub lineages in many settings, including Europe and the US, and therefore warrants close monitoring.
"Higher infection risk is a possibility"
Citing the additional mutations of the virus, the WHO says, this might have conferred an immune escape advantage over other circulating Omicron sublineages, and therefore a higher reinfection risk is a possibility that needs further investigation.
On the infection risk associated with these variants, Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute says, though both the variants have relative number of mutations, BQ.1 is more concerning and could “pose a threat to our immune system’s response."
Will it lead to a surge in COVID hospitalizations?
While the number of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 COVID cases in India is less and much about hospitalization can not be derived from it, in the US where the number of cases are high, less number of hospitalized cases are seen.
"What is encouraging is that New York State, the highest BQ.1.1% in the US, still shows no sign of increased Covid hospitalizations. Same for the US overall," says Eric Topol.
Milder symptoms are expected
Until now, the top COVID symptoms have been fever, headache, sore throat, runny nose and fatigue.
Ever since the Omicron variant has been in circulation it is seen that mild symptoms are seen in COVID patients.
Everytime a new subvariant of the Omicron emerges, there is a worrying concern around the severity of the symptoms. However, so far there is no evidence associating severity with BQ.1 led infections.
Can we say that COVID is getting milder?
It is too irrelevant to say this because while the ongoing and past research studies do not have any evidence regarding the severity of the infection they do not even rule out the possibility of mutations in the COVID spikes.
The juxtaposition of the expectations, trends of the infection with the nature of the virus affects the prevailing human behaviour towards the infection and their preparedness in taking safety measures.
So once again, it is too soon to drop the guards. Wear masks, avoid going to crowded places and do not touch your mouth or nose without cleaning your hands in order to keep the coronavirus at bay.
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