IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 6 matches to go, RR surge to 68.8% as race narrows for final playoff spot — odds for each team explained

With six games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs while RCB, GT and SRH have qualified. RR are best placed among the others followed by PBKS. KKR, DC and CSK are still in the mix but have slim chances.

There are now 64 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the five remaining in the race that haven’t qualified.




We look at the probabilities:

• RCB are now sure to qualify and to at least finish tied for No.1 in terms of points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH

• SRH and GT have also qualified and for both the chances of at least being tied for the second spot are a healthy 75%

• Tuesday’s win has moved RR’s chances of ending up among the top four on points to 68.8% and they could still end up in a three-way tie for second spot with SRH and GT, and there’s a 12.5% chance of that

• PBKS can at best finish sole fourth (18.8% chance) or tie for fourth spot with KKR (6.3%)

• KKR’s chances of making the last four singly or jointly are now at 12.5% and if they do tie for the last slot it will be with PBKS

• DC’s chances of making the last four on points are also at 12.5% but if they do achieve that it will be a tie with either RR or KRR and CSK

• CSK’s best case scenario is tied fourth with RR or KRR and DC and even that is only a 9.4% chance

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 64 possible combinations of results remaining with 6 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, RCB finish at no.1 on points in all 64 possible combinations of match outcomes, in some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.

With the playoff race tightening, fans can also use TOI’s IPL Prediction Hub to simulate different match results and check qualification possibilities live.

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