Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo? Economist who predicted last three FIFA World Cup winners already knows the answer

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is now just days away. The excitement is building around what could be the final World Cup appearances of football icons Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Both legends are preparing for a record sixth World Cup campaign. Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions after their success in Qatar in 2022. While Portugal hope to finally lift the trophy with Ronaldo leading the squad once again.

A new prediction by German economist Joachim Klement has added extra intrigue ahead of the tournament. Klement, who correctly forecast the winners of the previous three World Cups, has released a detailed model for the 2026 competition. His projections suggest that both Argentina and Portugal will enjoy strong runs before meeting in a blockbuster quarter-final. However, the model predicts heartbreak for Messi and Argentina, with Ronaldo’s Portugal advancing after extra time.

Economist predicts Portugal to eliminate Argentina in FIFA World Cup quarter-final clash

Joachim Klement’s prediction model places Argentina at the top of Group J, where they will face Algeria, Austria and Jordan. Portugal are also projected to finish first in Group K ahead of DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia.


According to the forecast, both teams will comfortably move through the Round of 32. Argentina are expected to defeat Uruguay, while Portugal are tipped to overcome Ivory Coast. The model then predicts further success in the Round of 16.

The report suggests Argentina will edge past Turkey, with Messi expected to play a decisive role in securing victory. Portugal are also backed to beat Switzerland, although the model indicates their chances improve if Ronaldo is not included in the starting lineup for that match.

The most anticipated prediction comes in the quarter-finals. Klement’s analysis forecasts a dramatic meeting between Argentina and Portugal. The model believes Portugal will prevail after extra time and knock the defending champions out of the tournament.

Portugal are then projected to continue their impressive run by defeating England in the semi-finals. However, the team is not expected to win the title. Instead, the model forecasts a surprise triumph for the Netherlands, who are predicted to defeat Portugal in the final and become world champions.

Unlike many football forecasts that focus only on team form and player performances, Klement’s model combines sporting statistics with economic and demographic data to calculate success probabilities.

Argentina will face Honduras and Iceland in warm-up matches before the tournament begins. Portugal are scheduled to play Chile and Nigeria as they finalize preparations for what could be a historic World Cup campaign.