'The energy transition has gone beyond one person in the White House — India’s a leader'

Thomas Hale is Professor in Public Policy at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government. Speaking with Srijana Mitra Das at Times Evoke, Hale discusses global approaches to climate change:

President Trump just called climate change science ‘the biggest con job’ — what is your view?
The words we heard from Donald Trump were words we had heard him say on different occasions, so there weren’t any surprises in learning what he thinks — the surprise was the length at which he went on about climate change and the context in which he spoke, at the United Nations General Assembly. Yet, the day after he spoke, 121 countries joined the Secretary General’s climate summit. So, the United States came off as being extremely isolated, the only country to have left the Paris Agreement, to say climate change is a con job, to not understand the seriousness of its impacts or see the opportunity of the green transition as an economic engine. We didn’t learn anything new about Donald Trump — but we did learn the commitment of the rest of the world to look reality in the face.

There is a steady momentum in global renewable energy investments now — what’s driving this?
We’re seeing continuity because the economic and security case for renewable energy grows stronger every day. For many countries, the key question is — how to get cheap, abundant and secure power for the AI revolution, development and a world with geopolitical risks? Using the wind and sun you have in your own country is simply logical.

Changes in private technology have been hugely decisive in driving this forward. Many countries see how they possess this abundant renewable resource which is much safer and more sensible than importing fossil fuels that are vulnerable to shifts in global commodity markets and cause severe health impacts. So, there’s rationale behind this. Here, at Oxford, we have the Net Zero Tracker project, which looks at net zero targets by countries, companies, cities and regions worldwide. Our recent annual report shows how, in the last 12 months, more big US companies have added net zero targets rather than dropping them — that has increased by 9%. The transition has gone beyond one person in the White House — it’s driven by deep structural factors.
What is the role of science here?
I think the worrisome trend in the rhetoric from the US President is people increasingly contesting basic scientific understandings. It’s become ‘my meme’ versus ‘your meme’, not ‘What does the science say?’ and how to generate a fact base for solutions, drawn from a common understanding of problems. Importantly, there are multiple issues to confront, from climate change to health and new technologies. For most countries, it’s all the more essential to reinforce the scientific basis of policy-making — science must inform our deliberation and decision-making.
Which countries are leading the energy transition?The energy transition is unevenly distributed — currently, China dominates the manufacturing and deployment of some key technologies, from photovoltaic cells to wind turbines, electric vehicles, batteries, etc. China’s lead also includes some material inputs, critical minerals, etc. China’s hegemonic presence in these markets makes many wonder how that could lead to the global transition everyone needs? A world where China makes and sells everything is not a stable solution — we need every country to have a piece of this growing green economy. We have to build a coalition of countries that develop their own value in the transition and share this in a way that’s fair.

Currently, Donald Trump is trying to take the United States out of that equation — but a lot of the US is still very much part of it. You have many states, companies and cities working hard to accelerate their action and they are not small — California, which is one of the world’s largest economies by itself, is all in on this. But alongside, it’s risky to have a world where only big players can mobilise investment in the green transition. We need value chains that drive this around. India is now one of the largest leaders in renewable energy. India is a huge player in this space — nations should come together to build a shared green economy, without a mercantilist or obstructionist position that might come from certain countries.
What is the future of the fossil fuel industry?
There are two scenarios here. Scenario one is — everyone keeps maximising production and usage of fossil fuels in the short term. So, there’s more drilling, consumption and production. There’ll be a real fight in this world — every producer will battle it out to be the last one standing. Already, the price of oil has been fairly flat. It’s unclear many investments being made in, say, fracking or deep-sea oil will pay off where oil prices are low. Eventually, the music will stop — some companies will go bankrupt, some assets will get stranded, investors won’t get money back and some workers will be cut.

But the good news is, there’s a second scenario — it doesn’t have to be this disturbing end. It could be that oil and gas companies begin to follow a phaseddown production pathway now, compatible with the world’s climate goals and with a long future tail of income for companies, communities and investors. There is also a window for governments that depend on fossil fuel revenue for services — some large national producers use oil and gas to fund their budgets but big consumer states also use petrol taxes or such cesses for revenue. We must see how governments can find new revenue sources — and not face a hole in public budgets as the energy transition intensifies.


Views expressed are personal