US & Iran are taking a high-risk gamble over Hormuz. With doubts hanging over a scheduled second round of talks today, there are three ways this can go. Return to direct conflict. Iran negotiating under pressure. Or a prolonged stalemate
Although a second round of Pakistan-mediated talks between US and Iran is expected today, an air of uncertainty looms. This is because of recent events that have significantly changed the course of the crisis. In response to the US blockade of Iranian ports, Iran closed Hormuz once again. This saw Iran’s IRGC specifically target India-flagged vessels attempting to pass through. Things escalated further when US navy fired upon and seized an Iran-flagged cargo ship. All of this highlights the fragility of the ceasefire, and the ongoing discussions about resuming talks.