Sex tape case: Ramesh Jarkiholi supporters show black flags to DK Shivakumar in Belgavi

Kerala’s 2026 election is shaping up as a tight and unpredictable contest, with anti-incumbency emerging as a key but complex factor. The Left government led by Pinarayi Vijayan faces visible voter fatigue after two terms, with concerns over unemployment, inflation, and welfare delays. However, the anger is not uniform. In many regions, welfare delivery and governance still work in favour of the government, preventing a strong anti-incumbency wave. This has kept the contest extremely close between the Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front. The BJP-led NDA, though smaller, could influence outcomes in tight seats by splitting votes. The result is a fragmented voter mood where no single narrative dominates. In such a scenario, small shifts in vote share could decide the final outcome, making Kerala one of the most closely watched elections in the country.