As Iran and the United States prepare to meet in Oman this Friday, expectations for diplomacy are collapsing fast. Regional officials now warn the talks may amount to little more than an exchange of ideas — with no concrete outcomes and no real de-escalation. Behind the scenes, Tehran has narrowed the scope of negotiations to the nuclear issue alone, keeping its missile program and regional influence firmly off the table. At the same time, Iran has paired diplomacy with provocation — flying drones near a U.S. aircraft carrier and confronting a U.S.-flagged oil tanker, signalling pressure before dialogue. Washington insists diplomacy remains an option, but frustration is growing. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says any meaningful deal must include Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional activities — a demand Tehran rejects outright. With warships still deployed, expectations downgraded, and red lines hardening on both sides, the question is no longer whether these talks can deliver peace — but whether diplomacy still has time left before confrontation takes over.