Merkel mantra and right-wing chants: Germany heads to polls

'Mutti' Merkel is winning?

* Merkel, 63, affectionately called Mutti (mother), is seeking a fourth term after 12 years in office

* Polls show Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and sister outfit Christian Social Union (CSU) ahead of nearest rival with 36% of the vote

* Centre-right CDU has ruled for 48 of the 68 years of the Federal Republic of Germany’s existence


But she may lose an ally...

* CDU/CSU partnered with Social Democratic Party (SPD), the other main party, that ruled 8 of the 12 years Merkel was chancellor

* But SPD has ruled out joining another coalition. Seen in that event as the main opposition, SPD is likely to come in second, with 22% of support


...While the

far-right

breaks new ground

Alternative for Germany (AfD), founded in 2013 to oppose the euro, could win seats in the

Bundestag

for the first time. Polls say it could be third biggest party. It has an aggressive anti-Islam, anti-immigration stance.


In the game of coalitions, a number of options...

* No party has won outright majority since 1957

* This year may be more complicated as the number of parties in parliament likely to increase from four to six

* If CDU/CSU wins and SPD doesn’t want to join it as ally, Merkel could turn either to the Free Democratic Party (FDP) or the Green Party, or both, depending on the numbers

* If SPD, led by Martin Schulz, ex-European Parliament president, causes an upset and wants to avoid CDU/CSU, it could rope in the Greens, or tie up with Die Linke (The Left) and the Greens


Germans vote twice

* Voters cast two votes — one for a direct representative of the area, second for preferred party. Each has 299 seats

* This second vote determines the proportion each party gets in their Bundestag


The German electoral system

Why the number of Bundestag seats fluctuates

* A party may get more direct parliament seats through the first vote than they ultimately get according to the party vote

* Since each winner of a district is guaranteed a seat, the party gets to maintain those "overhang" seats

* Other parties accordingly get more seats to maintain the proportion, making the parliament larger than its base of 598 seats. Currently there are 630 seats in the Bundestag


The 5 per cent rule

* Parties which score below 5% of the second nationwide vote or win fewer than three seats are excluded from parliament

* The shares of the other parties are recalculated accordingly


Breaking down the numbers

Voters: 61.5 million
Women: 31.7 million
Men: 29.8 million

Over a third of voters (22 million) are over 60 years old

Germany is

EU

’s most populous (82.8 million) nation and biggest economy

Term of Bundestag: 4 years

National security and immigration policy dominate this year’s vote. Merkel’s opendoor policy on accepting refugees from war-torn countries has cost her some support