Smells like separatism: Oil-rich Alberta slipping from Thwadda Canada to America?

TOI correspondent from Washington: Canada is finding out the hard way why New Delhi is so tetchy about Khalistani capers in “Kannedda.” A growing separatist movement in the country’s oil-rich province of Alberta has ignited a full-blown diplomatic spat with Washington at a time when ties between the United States and its western partners are already strained by trade disputes and defence questions.

At the centre of the storm are revelations that leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), a group campaigning for Alberta’s independence, have held a series of high-level meetings with officials in Washington to discuss breaking away from Canada. APP representatives are reported to have met US State Department officials at least three times in recent months, with a fourth meeting pencilled in for February 2026 that would include the US Treasury Department.




The most incendiary element is the APP’s reported request for a US$500 billion line of credit from the US Treasury, designed to bankroll what it calls a “Day One” transition to independence should a referendum on the issue succeed. To trigger a referendum under Alberta law, the group must collect 177,732 valid signatures by early May. Organisers claim momentum after large rallies in Calgary and Edmonton, while a counter-movement, “Alberta Forever Canada,” says it has already mobilised thousands against separation. Some polls show up to 30 per cent support for Alberta separating from Canada.

Gallingly for Ottawa, the group is said to have sought early diplomatic signals that Washington would recognise an independent Alberta, while also discussing alternative pipeline routes through the US Pacific Northwest to bypass federal Canadian approval and the province of British Columbia. Alberta is the wealthiest of Canada’s ten provinces on account of its energy; it accounts for more than 90 per cent of Canada’s proven oil reserves and 80 per cent of its current production.

Furious Canadian nationalists are lashing out at the APP, accusing it of betrayal and subversion. "To go to a foreign country and to ask for assistance in breaking up Canada, there's an old-fashioned word for that. And that word is treason." Premier David Eby of British Columbia, where Khalistani separatists are active, said on Thursday. Ontario Premier Doug Ford called the meetings “unacceptable and unethical,” urging Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to clearly denounce the movement.

MAGA influencers, in thrall of President Trump's idea of making Canada the 51st US state, are only too happy to jump into the firestorm, though APP separatists say they want independence, not annexation. “It's time to make a deal with Canada. We will take Alberta, and they can have Minnesota,” one social media troll joked, referring to the disquiet in the two areas on either side of the longest international land border in the world at 8890 kms.

Washington’s official response has been cautious. The White House and State Department say they routinely meet with civil society groups and insist no commitments were made. But the involvement of senior figures, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—who publicly described Alberta as a “natural partner” for the US—has fueled suspicion in Ottawa that the interest is more than academic. Canadian officials privately worry that Alberta separatism could become leverage in future trade or energy negotiations. The episode has reopened deeper questions about Canada’s federal model. Alberta’s grievances—over energy policy, equalisation payments and environmental regulation—are not new, echoing decades of alienation from Ottawa. What is new is the extent to which those grievances are now intersecting with external actors at a particularly delicate time in US-Canada ties.

The developments also resonate uncomfortably vis-à-vis the country's largest province, Quebec, where separatist sentiment has waxed and waned for generations. The near-miss 1995 Quebec referendum remains the country’s most profound constitutional trauma, and federal officials are acutely aware that any perception of weakness could reignite separatist forces.