iPhone pe charcha: Can iPhone=indiaPhone? Will New Delhi become the Apple of Washington's eye? Or is it an iDream

TOI Correspondent from Washington: At a Costco outlet in Wheaton, a suburb outside Washington DC, Tony Silvera prowled the electronics section wondering if he should upgrade his phone and pick up an iPad for his daughter. Reports of panic buying of electronics and toys, much of it made in China, were rifling through social media amid the tariff war unleashed by President Trump, but no mobs were stampeding through the aisles, at least so far.

The 36-year old homebuilder eventually decided against the upgrade -- he said he really didn't need it -- but he bought an iPad. And no, he didn't know Apple's iPhones were now made in India; he thought everything came from China.

In the spirit of "whether elephants make love or war, the grass suffers," New Delhi too is suffering collateral damage in the trade firefight between Washington and Beijing. But the showdown has turned the spotlight on whether India can take advantage of the spat by providing additional fresh turf for a manufacturing pivot that Apple started in 2017 when it began moving some iPhone assembly to India. Last week, as the iconic company rushed five plane loads of iPhones from India to the US to beat the tariff deadline, trade analysts began crunching numbers: How fast and how much further can India ramp up production for Apple?

India now accounts for 14 percent of Apple's global iPhone production, compared to nearly 80 percent still made in China. Industry analysts are projecting that Apple will now channel more production to India because of US-China tensions and the tariff differential. The 104 per cent tariff on China means a $1000 China-made iPhone will cost around $ 2000 when it lands in US; the same iPhone made in India would cost around $ 1250 because of the 27 per cent tariff on India.

Not so fast, MAGA supremo Donald Trump said on Wednesday, suggesting that Apple should not fall far from the tree. "This is a GREAT time to move your COMPANY into the United States of America, like Apple, and so many others, in record numbers, are doing," he said, promising “ZERO TARIFFS, almost immediate Electrical/Energy hook ups and approvals, and No Environmental Delays,” all of which take an eternity to process in India.

Indeed, Apple has already pledged $ 500 billion spending in the US over the next four years, almost co-terminus with the Trump presidency. But that investment is aimed at setting up an AI Server manufacturing facility in Houston, advanced silicon chips making in Phoenix, a manufacturing academy in Detroit, and campuses elsewhere -- not a word on iPhones, iPads, Macbooks and other devices, most of which are made outside the US.

But even that is anathema to the MAGA-dominated Trump dispensation. Although Apple CEO Tim Cook has contended that the US just does not have enough skilled manpower to make the more than 200 million iPhones Americans (and rest of the world) buy every year, Trump surrogates are obsessed with bringing manufacturing jobs back to America, even if there are not enough skilled people.

In a 60 minutes interview, Cook explained that Apple went to China not just because of lower wages but for the abundance of vocational skills that the US gave up on. “You can take every tool and die maker in the US and probably put them in a room that we’re currently sitting in. In China, you would have to have multiple football fields," he said.

The Trump White House contests that. "The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones — that kind of thing is going to come to America," commerce secretary Howard Lutnick blustered in one TV interview, invoking visions of a job boom from assembly-line manufacturing. As an afterthought, he said the work would be done by robots and Americans jobs would come from building the robots and factories, giving employment to mechanics, electricians and other high-school educated Americans, inviting a snarky putdown: "No wonder they are deporting STEM Phds."

The Chinese had the last laugh though, trolling Washington with an AI generated video showing overweight Americans toiling in basic assembly line manufacturing.