RBI MPC Meeting 2026 Highlights: Repo rate unchanged, India's GDP growth seen at 6.9%; RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra flags risks due to US-Iran war

RBI MPC Meeting: What it means for institutional investors

The RBI’s decision to hold at 5.25% is the right call — and for institutional investors, it reinforces what Indian policy makers consistently demonstrate - policy credibility holds even under global pressure. The fundamentals remain compelling. However, today’s pronouncement shouldn’t be mistaken as rate stability for cost stability. The 125 basis points delivered since early 2025 has yet to fully transmit downstream while crude-driven input cost pressures are moving in the opposite direction. With FY27 inflation revised to 4.6%, further cuts are unlikely in the near-term. It maybe prudent to lock in financing at current levels, stay disciplined on execution, and position for what remains an attractive institutional real asset cycle, says Chanakya Chakravarti, Independent Real Asset Advisor.

RBI MPC Meeting: ‘Appropriate approach’

Given the global uncertainty associated with the evolving geopolitical crisis, especially in West Asia, there are upside risks to inflation on account of supply chain dependencies around energy, fertiliser and other commodities. The MPC has therefore rightly decided unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged with a neutral stance.

Fuel inflation and food inflation, particularly on account of weather risks, could weigh heavily on the inflation outlook. Inflation risks are not evenly balanced and there is an upward risk to the same. The RBI has therefore taken a prudent wait and watch approach.

Currency risk also plays a significant factor given the global turmoil the world is currently witnessing. Keeping the interest rate unchanged was therefore the most appropriate approach, as any change could have magnified currency risks. The RBI has to walk a difficult tightrope in its monetary policy.

Interestingly, the RBI has started providing core inflation projections this time along with headline inflation projections, which is a departure from the earlier methodology of only providing headline inflation. We believe this will provide greater transparency around MPC decisions to the market, thereby supporting greater financial stability.

If rate increases are made to mitigate the impact of rising food and fuel prices, it signals that the RBI’s decisions are aimed at anchoring inflation expectations rather than reducing aggregate demand.

In his speech, the Governor also spoke significantly about the government’s fiscal policies and how they remain a long term positive for the Indian economy, reflecting the government and regulatory commitment to navigating the prevailing global uncertainty, says Vivek Iyer, Partner and Financial Services Risk Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat.

RBI MPC Meeting: Raft of uncertainties

Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, Crisil Ltd shares views:

On the monetary policy stance and rate decision

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining status quo on both the policy rate and monetary policy stance was along expected lines.

The raft of uncertainties bred by the West Asia conflict calls for prudence.

It would be premature to draw firm conclusions on the impact or pre-empt the ultimate outcome of the West Asia conflict. At this juncture, all that is required is keeping ready adequate policy buffers and staying nimble to act as the situation evolves.

On growth and inflation projections

So far, the availability of fiscal space to absorb part of the higher energy costs due to the conflict has contained their impact on retail inflation.

The government has directed supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to domestic consumers and priority sectors and maintained retail petrol and diesel prices (standard variant). However, if crude oil price pressures persist, the upside risks to retail inflation are inevitable.

The projections on growth and inflation—the first estimates by the MPC for fiscal 2027 following the release of the new data series—reflect the recognition that the impact on growth could be greater than that on inflation in the near term. Part of the moderation in India’s GDP growth expected is also due to a statistical high-base effect of fiscal 2026.

The MPC projects inflation at 4.6% for fiscal 2027, within its target range.

The committee expects gross domestic product growth to moderate to 6.9% this fiscal from 7.6% in the previous year. art of the moderation is also due to the high base of fiscal 2026.

Additionally, producers are bearing the brunt of the dual shock of energy and other input shortages and price spikes, which could impact economic growth. Some impact on the economy could be enduring, though the overall fallout will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict.

Financial markets and liquidity support

The MPC’s clear commitment to stay proactive and pre-emptive in liquidity support provides comfort.

Financial markets have responded more to global market volatility than what the real sector indicators have shown so far. The RBI has demonstrated its ability to tame excessive volatility using multiple instruments, ranging from open market operations to regulatory measures in the forex market. It has kept systemic liquidity in surplus till date despite volatile foreign capital flows.

RBI Policy Live: ’Stability in policy is a positive step’

“The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 bps is in line with our expectations and reflects a measured and confidence-driven approach to India’s evolving macroeconomic landscape. At this point, when inflation is moderating but global uncertainties persist, a pause will allow the apex bank to assess the full impact of earlier policy actions.

On inflation, holding steady rates help anchor expectations while avoiding premature easing can lead to reigniting price pressures. The RBI intends to maintain a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation.

From an economic and GDP standpoint, stability in policy is a positive step. Predictable interest rates encourage consumption and private investment, both of which are critical drivers of India’s growth momentum. Businesses receive better visibility for long-term financial planning owing to these two drivers.

In the home loan segment, the unchanged repo rate translates into continued stability in lending rates, particularly for floating rate loan borrowers. This is critical for both first-time homebuyers and existing homeowners as it preserves affordability and supports demand in the housing market.

Overall, the RBI’s stance reinforces stability while ensuring the growth engine stays on track, says Atul Monga - CEO& Co-Founder, BASIC Home Loan.

RBI Policy Live: ‘RBI prudently chose to be patient’

Against the backdrop of an uncertain geopolitical scenario, the RBI prudently chose to be patient instead of being reactionary in its policy today, keeping its stance and the policy rate unchanged. The policy tone was balanced and wait and watch, abstaining from indicating any hawkishness. As we expected, no extreme or out of box measures were announced at this point.

The central bank recognised the upside risks to inflation that have already emerged, upping its forecast for FY27 (due to higher energy costs) while being cautious on growth. That said, this outlook was balanced by the re-iteration of the fact that the economy was witnessing strong fundamentals prior to the war which enhances the absorptive capacity of the economy to the current West Asia shock. Moreover, the RBI indicated that inflation starting points are also comfortable, implying that inflation could remain within the RBI’s target band in FY27.

Comments around the rupee also showcased strong confidence building by the RBI to manage any exaggerated moves, while maintaining its stance of not targeting particular levels of the rupee.

We estimate inflation at 4.9% for FY27 and growth at 6.8-7%, assuming the current conflict is short-lived and the current ceasefire holds. The policy rate could remain unchanged through FY27 under this scenario. The rupee could find some stability over the coming days along with some cooling off in the 10-year bond yield with a 6.8-7% range likely to emerge, says Sakshi Gupta, Principal Economist, HDFC Bank.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Clear bias toward stability

The RBI’s policy decision today points to a clear bias toward stability, consistent with a ‘wait-and-watch’ stance. Even as supply-side pressures keep upside risks to inflation elevated and the growth outlook remains uncertain, the central bank seems comforted by the economy’s underlying resilience. In our assessment, future policy moves will hinge on how inflation and broader macro stability evolve, while maintaining support for domestic growth, says Rahul Goswami, CIO & MD, India Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton.

RBI MPC Meeting: Calibrated and data-dependent approach

The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in the first review of the financial year reflects a calibrated and data-dependent approach amid elevated global uncertainty. With geopolitical tensions in West Asia driving volatility in crude prices and posing upside risks to inflation, the central bank has rightly chosen to stay cautious while preserving the gains made on price stability. The stance reinforces a clear ‘wait-and-watch’ approach, with a sharp focus on inflation dynamics and evolving external conditions.

For the fintech ecosystem, this policy continuity provides a stable operating environment at a time when risk management and capital efficiency remain critical. A steady rate regime enables lenders and digital platforms to recalibrate underwriting, pricing, and portfolio strategies with greater confidence. At the same time, the policy signal is clear, future actions will remain contingent on inflation trends and global developments, making it imperative for the broader financial ecosystem to stay agile while continuing to drive responsible credit growth and financial inclusion, says Sarbvir Singh, Joint Group CEO, PB Fintech.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Decoding RBI policy

We believe RBI has taken careful note of the fact that uncertainty in global environment has increased and proactive management is need of the hour. On liquidity front they have ensured that they will maintain sufficient liquidity that meets growth requirement, which is positive. Also, RBIs proposal to remove specific conditions tied to NPA provisioning for including quarterly profits in CRAR calculation and removal of requirement of investment fluctuation reserve is positive for Banks. Furthermore, new measures to streamline regulatory instructions and support the MSME sector are aimed to enhance the Ease of Doing Business. By balancing a neutral policy stance with domestic support, the RBI seeks to navigate geopolitical volatility while ensuring that credit market transmission remains productive and sustainable, says Sameer Sawant, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Careful balance by RBI

"The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% shows a careful balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth. The timing is important: global oil prices fell after a temporary ceasefire in the Iran–US conflict, but uncertainty about how long this will last remains high. For India, the pause provides some relief, as imported inflation pressures are lower for now while domestic demand stays strong. By maintaining a neutral stance, the MPC has signalled flexibility to act decisively should the geopolitical shocks or commodity price swings return. Stability in the policy rate helps keep borrowing costs predictable and supports credit flows to households and businesses. Looking ahead, much will depend on how global conditions evolve. If oil stabilizes and inflation eases further, the RBI may gain room to support growth more actively in the coming quarters,” says KH Patnaik, Chief Ratings Officer, Brickwork Ratings.

RBI Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged At 5.25%

RBI Policy Live: RBI policy decision priced in

The RBI’s decision to maintain the repo rate and its Neutral stance did not come as a surprise and was already priced in. For now, we believe this could be the end of the rate cut cycle, and the RBI will pause rates from here. Although a 2-week ceasefire has been announced, risks persist, posing a downward risk to GDP growth estimates and an upward revision risk to inflation estimates. The RBI has already revised its Q1/Q2 inflation/GDP estimates to reflect the dynamic geopolitical risks. However, any further escalation in the West Asia conflict that negatively impacts inflation or GDP estimates could possibly prompt the regulator to reverse the rate cycle earlier than anticipated.

For banks, Q4 appears to be a strong quarter with credit growth having picked up meaningfully; though, deposit competition remains intense. All eyes will remain on commentary regarding possible headwinds to growth due to geopolitical uncertainty, especially for MSMEs, Vehicle Finance, and Corporate credit in oil-sensitive sectors. While a ceasefire has been announced for 2 weeks, any further escalation in the West Asia war could impair credit momentum, at least in H1FY27. Margins would remain divergent with SFBs and Mid-sized private banks outperforming the larger banks. Commentary on NIM movement over H1FY27 remains critical, especially with CoD remaining sticky. Q4 is seasonally the strongest quarter for asset quality, and this quarter is expected to be no different.

However, focus will remain on management commentary on potential risks arising from geopolitical uncertainty and its implications on lenders' asset quality. We would remain selective in our stock selection approach and favour banks with diversified portfolios, strong deposit franchise, adequate capitalisation, and attractive valuations. Presently, we prefer ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and SBI amongst the larger banks, and Federal Bank, AU SFB, and Ujjivan SFB amongst the mid/smaller banks, says Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities PMS.

RBI Policy Live: Central bank aims to keep inflation aligned within its comfort band

"The RBI’s decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% while retaining a neutral stance reflects a calibrated approach amid rising global uncertainties. While domestic growth remains resilient—with FY27 GDP projected at 6.9%—heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile crude prices warrant caution. By staying on pause, the central bank aims to keep inflation aligned within its comfort band, even as it preserves flexibility to respond to external shocks and currency pressures, ensuring the Indian economy remains on a steady expansion path, says Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

RBI Policy Live: What it means for real estate sector

The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% reinforces a sense of stability at a time when global economic conditions remain uncertain. In the face of external pressures such as geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, and currency movements, maintaining the status quo provides much-needed predictability to the broader economy.

For the real estate sector, this continuity in interest rates plays a crucial role in sustaining momentum. Stable borrowing costs help preserve affordability for homebuyers while also enabling developers to plan with greater confidence. In an environment where sentiment can be easily influenced by macroeconomic signals, the absence of rate volatility acts as a reassuring factor for the market. With financing costs remaining steady, prospective buyers are better positioned to evaluate and commit to long-term investments such as homeownership.

Overall, the RBI’s decision supports a balanced environment for the real estate sector, helping maintain demand traction and providing the confidence needed for continued market activity in the near term, says Shishir Baijal, International Partner, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India.

RBI Policy Live: Inflation trajectory

As per the new CPI series (2024=100), headline inflation increased to 3.2 per cent in February 2026 from 2.7 per cent in January. The uptick was primarily driven by unfavourable base effects even as the momentum remained muted.

While food inflation increased in February, core (excluding food and fuel) inflation remained unchanged. Excluding precious metals, core inflation remained moderate at 2.1 per cent in January and February, suggesting subdued underlying inflation pressures, says the monetary policy statement.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Growth prospects face challenges

Looking ahead, elevated energy and other commodity prices coupled with supply shock due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would act as a drag on domestic production in 2026-27. Heightened volatility in global financial markets with its spillover on domestic financial conditions would weigh on growth prospects, says the MPC statement.

RBI Policy Live: Repo rate unchanged at 5.25%

After a detailed assessment of the evolving macroeconomic and financial developments and the outlook, the MPC voted unanimously to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 5.25 per cent. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 5.00 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remains at 5.50 per cent. The MPC also decided to continue with the neutral stance, the policy statement said.

RBI Policy Live: Extended pause in rate cut?

By underscoring upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, driven mainly by global uncertainties and especially the hostilities in West Asia, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee chose to maintain the status quo on both the policy rate and the policy stance. The decision was largely in line with expectations.

From here, the RBI is likely to continue with a data-dependent approach, suggesting an extended pause in rates. The broader policy stance is also likely to remain neutral, although liquidity conditions may continue to be managed in an accommodative manner. Overall, this policy mix appears neutral to marginally supportive for equities, fixed income and the foreign exchange market, says Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Anand Rathi Group.

RBI MPC Meeting: Continue to be proactive and preemptive in liquidity management

The Reserve Bank proactively undertook durable and transient liquidity measures. Going ahead, we will continue to be proactive and preemptive in liquidity management and ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system to meet the productive requirements of the economy, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Policy Live: Global trade to witness a slowdown

Global trade is expected to witness a slowdown in growth during 2026 as compared to 2025. This is due to the lingering tariff related uncertainties despite the supreme court judgment ongoing West Asia conflict and elevated energy prices. India's merchandise exports contracted by 0.2%, during the first two months of this year, on a year on year basis. This was a result of export contraction in key markets, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Policy on rupee

Despite stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, the Indian rupee in the last financial year depreciated more than the average in the previous years. In this regard, let me reiterate, I've said it many times - Our exchange rate policy remains unchanged.

Specifically, intervention in the foreign exchange market is aimed at smoothing excessive and disruptive volatility without targeting any specific level or band of price for the exchange rate. This is consistent with our long standing policy of exchange rates being market determined, and we in the RBI stand committed to this policy and would judiciously continue to contain excessive or disruptive volatility to ensure that self fulfilling expectations do not exacerbate currency movements beyond what is warranted by fundamentals, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: External sector indicators

India's external sector indicators remain favorable, nonetheless elevated global geopolitical trade Investment uncertainties required a continuous vigil of the evolving developments, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Inflation seen at 4.6% in FY27

CPI inflation this year is projected at 4.6%, with Q1 at 4%, Q2 at 4.4%, Q3 at 5.2% and then going down in Q4 to 4.7%, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: GDP growth for FY27 seen at 6.9%

Real GDP growth for this year is projected at 6.9% with Q1 at 6.8%, Q2 at 6.7%, Q3 at 7%, and Q4 at 7.2%.

Further escalation and wider spread of the conflict as of now, of course, we have a ceasefire, heightened volatility in global financial markets and weather related events, however weigh on the domestic growth outlook. Risks to the baseline projections are tilted to the downside with uncertainty remaining elevated due to the ongoing West Asia conflict, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Domestic manufacturing focus

The government's focus on scaling up domestic manufacturing in several strategic and frontier sectors augers well for India's ensuing growth trajectory on the demand side, private consumption this year is expected to be supported by discretionary spending.

Rural demand remains robust. It should gain further traction on the back of favorable agricultural conditions and a healthy labor market, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Strait of Hormuz closure impact

Real GDP growth for last year is estimated at 7.6% This corroborates the underlying strong momentum in economic activity supported by robust consumption and investment amidst supportive policy measures, ongoing structural reforms and favorable financial conditions.

Going forward, elevated energy and other commodity prices, as also shocks to availability of inputs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to impact growth this year. The government has, however, been proactive in ensuring supply of inputs across critical sectors to minimize the impact of supply chain disruptions, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: ‘Fundamentals of the Indian economy are on a stronger footing’

The MPC opined that the intensity and the duration of the conflict, as well as the resultant damage to the energy and other infrastructure add risk to the inflation and growth outlooks. However, the fundamentals of the Indian economy are on a stronger footing, providing it with greater resilience to withstand shocks now than in the past, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Growth impulses remain strong

“Core inflation pressures remain muted, although supply chain dislocations and the risk of second round effects render the future inflation trajectory uncertain. The MPC further noted that high frequency indicators till February of this year suggest the continuation of strong momentum in economic activity. Growth impulses continue to be supported by robust private consumption and investment demand,” says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Upside risks to inflation

The MPC noted that since the last policy meeting, geopolitical uncertainties have heightened significantly. Headline inflation remains contained and below the target. However, upside risks to the inflation outlook driven by increased increased energy prices pressures and probable weather disturbances affecting food prices have increased, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Repo rate unchanged

RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday announced that the Monetary Policy Committee has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Indian economic fundamentals strong

Before the outbreak of the West Asia conflict, India's macroeconomic fundamentals excluded confidence with buoyant growth and low inflation. Conditions, however, turned adverse in March with the widening of the conflict zone and its intensification, the fundamentals of the Indian economy are on a stronger footing at the current juncture, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Global economy faces unprecedented challenges

At a time when the global economy is facing unprecedented challenges from heightened geopolitical tensions, the conflict in West Asia, for which a temporary cease fire was announced today, and the disruption in global supply chains, says RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: FM sees room for rate cut

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said that maintaining fiscal discipline has provided the government with sufficient flexibility to continue capital expenditure and extend support to sectors affected by the West Asia crisis.

She also indicated that the Reserve Bank of India has scope to consider additional rate cuts to address the evolving economic situation.

Emphasising the role of sound public finance management during difficult periods, the minister said it enhances the economy’s counter-cyclical strength, particularly the ability to “lean against the wind” during downturns. Speaking at an event organised by the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, she noted that several countries burdened with high debt and large fiscal deficits have limited policy options and are often forced to choose between austerity and instability.

In contrast, she said, “India has fiscal space — room to maintain our capex programme, room for the RBI to cut rates, room to offer targeted support to affected sectors. This is the dividend of a decade of fiscal discipline. This is the strategic value of fiscal prudence that pays dividends across decades.”
She added that this fiscal flexibility has enabled the government to lower excise duties on petrol and diesel, while also granting specific exemptions for key petrochemical products and allowing special economic zones to operate within the Domestic Tariff Area.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Rupee strengthens ahead of RBI policy

The Indian rupee strengthened by 50 paise to 92.56 against the US dollar in early Wednesday trade after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week pause in military action against Iran.

According to forex traders, the ceasefire announcement sparked strong bargain buying across risk assets, with Asian equities, Dow futures, gold, and silver moving higher, while Brent crude slipped below $100 to around $96 per barrel.

Amid this backdrop, the rupee advanced to the 92.56 level, even as the Reserve Bank of India’s April 10 deadline for banks to square off overnight positions of up to $100 million remained in force. The central bank is also scheduled to announce its monetary policy later in the day.

In the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened at 92.92 against the dollar and strengthened further to 92.56 in early deals, marking a gain of 50 paise compared to its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee had settled at 93.06 against the US currency.

RBI Monetary Policy Live: Real estate sector hopeful of rate cut

Real estate investments remain the most desired due to their strong base and reliability factor. Hence, we look forward to a supportive stance from the RBI in the upcoming monetary policy announcement. We are hopeful of a rate cut as it would be highly encouraging for homebuyers and developers alike, potentially boosting affordability and investments in the sector. It would also strengthen market confidence and also act as a strong signal of policy support for the real estate sector and the broader economy.

A stable interest-rate environment will play a crucial role in sustaining homebuyer confidence throughout the year. The real estate sector has shown resilience with strong sales, and supportive monetary policy and measured approach will only accelerate its upward trajectory, says Ramani Sastri - Chairman & MD, Sterling Developers.

RBI Monetary Policy: Housing sector expectations

“With growth remaining resilient and inflation showing signs of moderation, we expect the RBI to maintain the status quo on policy rates as they examine the global crisis and liquidity conditions on the domestic front.

Over the past few years, increased borrowing costs have affected housing affordability, especially for first-time home buyers in mid-income and affordable segments. However, recent rate stability is beginning to offer some relief, and a continued pause or slight change in policy stance can help revive the housing demand and improve borrower sentiment.

We are witnessing a growing consumer preference for digital-first and transparent lending journeys. A supportive policy environment from the RBI through stable interest rates and improved liquidity, can boost credit access and strengthen India’s housing ecosystem. We are optimistic about overall macroeconomic stability and its impact on the housing ecosystem, says Atul Monga - CEO& Co-Founder, BASIC Home Loan.

RBI Monetary Policy: GDP, inflation forecasts to be revised?

Several economists have indicated that the RBI may revise its inflation and growth forecasts in the upcoming policy to reflect evolving global risks, with the possibility of an upward revision in inflation if crude prices remain elevated for an extended period.

Given the current conditions, economists believe the policy focus may shift more toward controlling inflation rather than supporting growth. While domestic growth remains relatively stable, global uncertainties could weigh on exports and investment, requiring the RBI to retain flexibility in its approach, a treasury official at a private sector bank said.

RBI Monetary Policy: Inflation outlook important

Sakshi Gupta, Principal Economist at HDFC Bank has cautioned against making rate decisions based on short-term developments, especially given the volatility in global commodity prices. She said the central bank is likely to wait for clearer signals on the inflation outlook.

RBI Monetary Policy: Policy stance in focus

The central bank is expected to maintain its neutral policy stance, signalling a preference for flexibility amid uncertain inflation dynamics and global risks. The overall tone is likely to remain cautious, with emphasis on upside risks to inflation from volatile crude prices and geopolitical tensions.

Economists note that liquidity conditions, transmission of earlier rate changes, and financial market stability will continue to be key considerations. The RBI is expected to closely track currency movements, capital flows, and developments in the bond market while shaping its policy response.

RBI Monetary Policy: GDP forecast in focus

Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, said no change in the repo rate or policy stance is expected, adding that the RBI’s updated projections for GDP growth and inflation under current uncertainties will be key.

RBI Monetary Policy: What every $10 increase in oil price means

Estimates suggest that every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices could push inflation higher by up to 0.60%. Oil prices, which had remained around $60 per barrel for an extended period, have climbed above $100 since the conflict began in late February. Meanwhile, the rupee has weakened by over 4%, further contributing to imported inflation.

RBI Monetary Policy: Inflation concerns on rising crude oil prices

Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist at Crisil, said that if inflation remains near the Monetary Policy Committee’s target, the RBI may choose to look past the supply-side shock and maintain the status quo on rates.

Economists say that although retail inflation has moved closer to the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%, the recent surge in global crude oil prices has raised concerns about second-round effects on domestic inflation, particularly in fuel, transport, and core components.

RBI Monetary Policy: Why RBI may pause on rate cut

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said the RBI is likely to stay on hold in April amid uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices and geopolitical developments, preferring to assess incoming inflation data before taking further steps.

RBI Monetary Policy: Why RBI will be cautious

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economist at SBI, noted that while announcing a pause, the RBI will adopt a cautious communication strategy. He pointed out that India is already experiencing the effects of the crisis, with the rupee trading above 93 per dollar and crude oil remaining above $100 per barrel, leading to a rise in imported inflation. He also highlighted that the anticipated “super El Nino” could add further pressure on prices.