Share of Russian crude in India's oil imports falls to lowest since November 2022; Middle East supplies rise

India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer has reshaped its crude sourcing strategy, according to data from industry sources. Russian crude shipments in January made up the smallest portion of New Delhi's oil imports since late 2022. During the same period, supplies from the Middle East rose to their highest share, Reuters reported quoting sources.Back in 2022, Russia emerged as India's top crude supplier after Indian refiners began buying large volumes of discounted Russian oil following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Over time, Russia's share of India’s crude oil imports climbed from under 1% to almost 40% at its highest point. However, recent Western sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine and Washington's push for a trade agreement have led New Delhi to cut back on Russian oil purchases, the data showed.Since November, China has overtaken India as Russia’s largest buyer of seaborne crude. Shipments of Russian oil to China are projected at about 2.07 million barrels per day for February delivery. This is more than January’s estimated 1.7 million barrels per day, preliminary assessments by Vortexa Analytics had earlier reported.

Smallest share since late 2022

In January, India imported about 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian crude, the lowest level since November 2022, with Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports shrinking to 21.2%.January imports from Russia were down 23.5% from December and roughly one-third lower than a year earlier.Analysts expect imports to drop further, averaging around 1–1.2 million bpd in February and about 800,000 bpd in March, though mid-term flows are seen declining gradually rather than ending completely."February numbers may appear slightly lower due to timing, as some end-month cargoes discharge in the following month," Sumit Ritola, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler told Reuters.This comes as India and United States have concluded an interim trade arrangement under which America removed 25% penal tariffs on Indian products from February 7, while reciprocal tariffs are set to be reduced to 18% from 25%.Announcing a trade deal with India, US President Donald Trump had earlier said that New Delhi had agreed to reduce imports of Russian oil to zero. However, the central govt did not respond to the assertion specifically, but maintained that India remains committed to "strategic autonomy."

Who's filling the gap?

To offset reduced Russian volumes, Indian refiners have turned to other grades from the Middle East, South America and Western suppliers.Middle Eastern crude made up roughly 55% of India’s total imports in January, while Latin American grades hit a 12-month high of about 10%, the data showed.Saudi Arabia has regained its position as India's top supplier, with imports tracking at record levels so far in February. "February month-to-date data already shows Saudi Arabia regaining its position as India's top supplier, with imports tracking at a new all-time high," Ritola told the agency.Lower Russian purchases have lifted OPEC's share in India's crude basket to an 11-month high.Earlier in Dec, India’s crude imports from Russia fell to a 10-month low of $2.7 billion, down 15% from Dec 2024, while Saudi Arabia (60% rise to $1.8 billion) and the US (31% increase to $569 million) were the big gainers, the commerce ministry department data showed.