India and the US trade talks have so far failed to yield a deal, and Russian oil continues to play a role in any tariff relief that India would want from the Donald Trump administration. India faces 50% tariffs on its exports to the US - 25% of which are for Russian crude oil imports which the Trump administration claims helps indirectly finance the Russian war against Ukraine.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said that India still needs to address outstanding US concerns over its continued purchases of Russian crude if it hopes to obtain relief from US tariffs.
Officials from both countries have been engaged in negotiations for several months over reducing the 50% duty imposed by President Donald Trump last year. Despite this pressure, discounted Russian crude continues to account for a sizeable share of India’s oil imports, a trend analysts expect could extend into 2026.
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Speaking in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday, Greer noted that India has taken steps to reduce imports of Russian oil. However, he noted that a complete shift away remains difficult, largely because of the discounts offered by discounted Russian supplies.
“They like the discount that you get from Russian oil,” he said according to a Bloomberg report, adding that despite regular engagement with his Indian counterpart and a strong working relationship, progress on this front remains unresolved.
Russia has remained India's top supplier
Meanwhile, India has concluded a long-awaited free trade agreement with the European Union, nearly 20 years in the making. The pact, called the ‘mother of all deals’ is widely viewed as a response to Trump’s increasingly protectionist trade stance.
Commenting on the development, Greer said India stands to gain significantly from the agreement. “Frankly, they have more market access into Europe. It sounds like they have some additional immigration rights,” he said. He added that India’s low-cost labour base could give it a strong advantage, while suggesting that the EU appears to be reinforcing globalization even as the US seeks to address its downsides.
The Trump administration has been sending mixed signals on Russian oil-linked tariffs. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the US may consider rolling back the additional 25%tariffs imposed on India after a sharp decline in New Delhi’s imports of Russian crude.
Bessent said the duties were introduced in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil, but noted that those imports have fallen significantly. “We put a tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Indian purchases of Russian oil have collapsed,” Bessent said.
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Meanwhile, India’s approach to sourcing crude oil is increasingly tilting toward supplies that carry lower risk and offer greater certainty of delivery. As part of this shift, Middle Eastern grades have strengthened their position in the import mix, while Russian crude continues to feature but in a more measured manner shaped by compliance and execution considerations.
Data from real-time analytics firm Kpler shows that Russian oil imports slipped to about 1.1 million barrels per day during the first three weeks of January, compared with an average of 1.21 million bpd in the previous month and more than 2 million bpd at their peak in mid-2025. With the country meeting nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements through imports, India is once again relying more heavily on its traditional suppliers in the Middle East.
More recently, fresh sanctions imposed by the United States on Russian suppliers have slowed buying activity, as concerns over regulatory compliance and logistical execution have intensified.
“India’s crude buying in January 2026 shows a clear shift toward lower-risk and more reliable supply, with Middle East barrels rising while Russian crude flows remain present but more selective and compliance-driven,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst for Refining and Modeling at Kpler.
Ritolia said India is expected to continue purchasing Russian crude in early 2026, though at levels below the record highs seen between 2023 and 2025.