West Asia war: Indian carriers see dip in international carriage while foreign carriers climb in Jan-March quarter

The US-Iran war that broke out on Feb 28 did not cause much of a dent in international travel to and from India this Jan-March quarter over the same period last year. However, its impact on airlines has been different: Foreign airlines, despite big Gulf carriers taking a hit since Feb, saw a significant jump in their passenger numbers while Indian carriers saw a big dip with even just one month of this quarter being impacted. Going ahead, the effect could become more pronounced.

The DGCA on Wednesday released data for international flyers to and from India in the first quarter of this calendar year with March being the first month impacted by the West Asia war. From 1.93 crore international flyers in Jan-March 2025, the number fell 1.2% to 1.91 crore in the same period this year. Indian carriers — IndiGo followed by Air India, AI Express, Akasa and SpiceJet — flew 80.9 lakh people in and out of India this Jan-March, down almost 10% from 89.6 lakh same period last year. Foreign airlines flew 1.1 crore, up 6% from 1.03 crore in the same period last year.

Big Gulf carriers like Emirates group and Qatar Airways were impacted by the March mayhem in this quarter and saw a natural dip in passenger numbers. Abu Dhabi-based Etihad surprisingly bucked the trend (see graphic). Smaller airlines like Jazeera and Kuwait also saw marginal dips.

A large percentage of flyers to and from India on the Big Three Gulf carriers are transit travellers. Which means a significant traffic between India and Americas, Europe, Africa and other parts of the world is routed through hubs like Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi.

Beginning March, strong foreign (non Gulf) airlines suddenly had spare capacity and needed to deploy idle planes to add planes to other places with their flights to West Asia impacted. Airlines like Lufthansa, British Airways and SWISS quickly added flights to India and/or started sending bigger planes here. This led to their passenger numbers to and from India increasing.

Indian carriers, on the other hand, could not capitalise on Gulf carriers’ diminished presence here in March by adding flights to the west and get affected flyers of Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad. This happened mainly due to two reasons: The closure of Pakistan airspace for them means their routes to the west have got even longer post Feb 28. So adding flights at a time when oil prices are skyrocketing, the rupee plummeting is not an option when fuel burn increases dramatically due to longer routes and introduction of fuelling stops.

Secondly, Air India — the only airline with its own wide body aircraft — has been cutting flights due to mounting losses. IndiGo has only wet leased (hired with operating crew) wide body planes as of now and even they can’t overfly Pakistan when being operated by an Indian carrier.

While AI flies to North America, Europe, Far East and Australia and IndiGo has some flights to Europe and UK, the Gulf is the mainstay for India carriers that fly abroad including IndiGo, AI Express, Akasa and SpiceJet. Each of them saw less travellers this Jan-March over the same period last year.

Air India and AI Express combined had flown 45.5 lakh people in and out of India in Jan-March 2025, while IndiGo was at 39.3 lakh. This Jan-March saw IndiGo (at 38.2 lakh) fly more people in and out of India than the AI Group which was together at 37.7 lakh.

Foreign airlines, on the other hand, had a mixed fortune with some making the most of this situation. The April-June quarter data will show the full picture of the war’s impact on air travel.

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