Russian oil inflows to India rise 50% as Middle East conflict stalls Hormuz shipments

India’s purchases of Russian crude have surged about 50% in March as refiners move to secure alternative supplies amid disruptions to shipments from the Middle East due to the widening military conflict. Ship-tracking data showed imports rising to around 1.5 million barrels per day this month from 1.04 million bpd in February.

India--the world’s third-largest crude importer -- meets about 88% of its oil needs through imports. The country consumes nearly 5.8 million barrels per day, with 2.5-2.7 million barrels traditionally sourced from Middle East producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE through the Strait of Hormuz, PTI reported.




The chokepoint also handles roughly 55% of India’s cooking gas (LPG) imports and 30% of liquefied natural gas supplies used for power generation, fertilisers, CNG and household consumption. With shipments through the strait largely disrupted, refiners have increasingly turned to Russian barrels to plug supply gaps.

“India was expected to import around 2.6 million barrels per day of crude via the Strait of Hormuz in March. At the same time, we are seeing a notable pickup in Russian barrels.

“Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports in March could reach 1-1.2 million bpd (over and above the February volumes), which means the effective shortfall from Hormuz exposure narrows to around 1.6 million bpd,” said Sumit Ritolia, analyst at Kpler, quoted PTI.

India’s refining sector has also helped cushion supply concerns. Net refined product exports averaged about 1.1 million bpd in 2025, and companies have intensified efforts to diversify crude sourcing from alternative suppliers.

“Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification, and Russia flows. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable,” Ritolia said, adding that LPG availability remains the key variable to watch in the coming weeks.

India consumes nearly 1 million bpd of LPG, of which only 40-45% is produced domestically while the remaining 55-60% is imported. Around 80-90% of these imports typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, making the supply chain particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the region.

“Refineries can optimise LPG output by shifting feedstocks away from petrochemical production toward LPG recovery and by adjusting unit operations to maximise LPG yields,” he said. “That said, such optimisation can only provide marginal incremental supply and cannot materially reduce India’s reliance on LPG imports.”

Even if domestic output rises by 10-20% through such optimisation, supply would still meet only about 47-50% of total demand, leaving a sizeable gap that must be bridged through imports. Ritolia noted that sourcing LPG from suppliers outside the Middle East is possible but involves longer voyage times, slowing replacement of disrupted cargoes.

“The Strait of Hormuz is also a critical route for global LPG trade, and any disruption in the area immediately raises risks for LPG supply and shipping flows.

“A large share of LPG exports from the Middle East — particularly from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — passes through Hormuz, making the chokepoint vital for Asian importers,” he said. “India is one of the world’s largest LPG importers and relies heavily on Middle Eastern supply, meaning any disruption in the region could tighten availability for the country.”

India’s LPG consumption is estimated at about 900-1000 kilo bpd, of which roughly 600 kbd is imported. Of these imports, nearly 80-90% originate from the Middle East, underscoring the strategic sensitivity of energy flows through the Hormuz corridor.