Bengaluru MLAs go on and on, but good run may end now

BENGALURU: Call it love for their political leaders, appreciation for development work or simply voting for the caste they represent -- in Bengaluru Urban, 17 of the 28 assembly segments have seen the same member representing the constituencies in the past decade.
Over the past 25 years, Bengaluru has become synonymous with the names of MLAs Dinesh Gundu Rao, R Roshan Baig, K J George, S Suresh Kumar and B Z Zameer Ahmed Khan.Besides, C N Ashwathnarayan, S Raghu and M Krishnappa (all BJP) continue to retain their hold over their constituencies. So what was the formula that worked for these candidates who hold sway over their constituents and haven’t been dislodged from the seat for two terms?
Political analyst Sandeep Shastry believes that unlike other parts of Karnataka and rural constituencies, Bengaluru voters factor in individual MLAs’ appeal rather than focus on the party or get swayed by the general trend. “For Bengaluru, the individual is first and the party secondary. It is the work that they have done and their ability to garner votes which is critical. We cannot deny that these MLAs have appealed to their core voters and taken up work accordingly,” he adds.
For Malleswaram MLA Ashwath Narayan, over the past 10 years, his voter base has seen a sizeable increase of over 12,000 votes between the 2008 and 2013 elections. This voter base increase is in a constituency which polls over 1 lakh votes.
Asked whether anti-incumbency is a serious threat, Ashwath Narayan said: “It is definitely a threat. But a threat which will be felt only by those who do not have a connect with the people. The main factor for people is accessibility and development work.”
Be it R Ashoka from Padmanabhanagar, N A Haris in Shanthinagar, K J George in Sarvagnanagar or Krishna Byre Gowda in Byatrayanapura, their religion and caste does appear to retain power for over two decades. However, sixtime MLA R Roshan Baig believes that religion and caste do not play a major role in Bengaluru politics. “While the individual and political party play a dominant role, religion and caste does not have much impact. I have the least number of minority votes in Shivajinagar, and more from other communities and castes. It is the local rapport you share that counts,” he said.

However, several of these experienced MLAs could be given a run for their money in the 2018 hustings. In Rajajinagar, five-time MLA S Suresh Kumar is facing tough competition from former mayor and likely aspirant from the Congress, G Padmavathi. Congress sources said several corporators in the constituency are unhappy with Kumar.
The same situation appears to prevail in Jayanagar, with two-term MLA B N Vijayakumar facing stiff competition from Soumya Reddy, daughter of home minister Ramalinga Reddy, who is likely to get the complete support of local corporators, irrespective of their party affiliations. In Sarvagnanagar, which has has the largest minority population in the city, George also faces stiff competition from the BJP and JD(S), considering his poor image in the public as Bengaluru development minister.
But ask Kumar whether it will be difficult to retain his seat, and he says: “There are two types of anti-incumbency. One is at the administrative level and another is at the individual level. While the Congress has failed at the administrative level, at the individual level it all depends upon mobility, visibility and accessibility. For me, there is a fight within the Congress as to who is going to fight me. In the end, it is the election which has to be faced.”