A bloc in flux: Kerala’s Muslim vote enters a new political phase

By: N P Chekkutty

The Muslim electorate in the state continues to shape outcomes, but changing signals suggest a more complex future

What the Muslims think and how they might behave is a matter of grave concern and speculation as Kerala faces each election. This is quite natural too, as the Muslims constitute a sizable section of the population and their choices are the most decisive factor in a large number of constituencies, especially in the north.




From the sixties, Muslims have, as a community, chosen to exercise their collective bargaining power, with a better strike rate compared to other communities in the state.

Despite their internal differences over matters of faith, economic and social status and regional disparities, they have generally remained under the banner of a single party, the Indian Union Muslim League, which represented the Muslim electoral power in all the elections since the formation of Kerala state in 1956. The party faced many storms and internal challenges, but has successfully consolidated and expanded its electoral strength over time.

In 1960, when the League first joined an electoral coalition alongside Congress and PSP, it had to settle for the speaker’s post despite earlier promises of cabinet positions. But the community learned quickly. By 1967, the League had switched sides, aligned with Communists and secured two cabinet berths. From then on, the League never had to look back and have emerged as a decisive force in Kerala politics. The real factor behind their success has been the Muslim community’s resolve to put their eggs in a single basket.

But there has been occasions when this arrangement faced severe strains. In the post-Babri Masjid days, there was much soul-searching and many had shifted their loyalties to the Left parties. Through the 1990s and into the early 2000s, CPM and its allies made substantial inroads in the Muslim heartland of central and south Malabar—Wayanad, Kozhikode, and Malappuram. The highwater mark came in 2004, when CPM candidate TK Hamza won the Manjeri Lok Sabha seat. Over the following two decades, the Left contested and won a string of Muslim-majority or Muslim-significant seats: Koduvally, Kunnamangalam, Thiruvambady, Nilambur, Mankada, Kuttippuram, Ponnani, Tanur, and others. Taken together on a map, these seats trace a rough semicircle across Malabar’s geography—what might aptly be called a Red Crescent in Kerala politics.

That crescent is now fading. The social engineering that CPM painstakingly built over two decades is showing serious cracks. Key figures who once anchored the Left’s relationship with the Muslim community—among them Manjalamkuzhi Ali, Karat Razak, and P V Anwar— have crossed over to the other side. Others, including PTA Raheem, K T Jaleel and V Abdurahman, have grown visibly less enthusiastic about their CPM affiliations. The signals are unmistakable: The winds are shifting, and the community is beginning to be more disillusioned about the Left parties.

Several forces are driving this change. The first is the national picture. With BJP firmly in power at the Centre, the Left has been reduced to a spectator in national politics, its influence negligible, its recovery unlikely. Rhetoric aside, no one seriously expects the Left to reclaim the ground it has lost. In that vacuum, Congress under Rahul Gandhi has become the default choice.

The second factor has been some tactical blunders on the part of CPM. It miscalculated that a campaign centred around a ‘Muslim bogey’ might help recover its losing Hindu base and also draw the Christian community to its fold. But the fact is that the type of malicious communal propaganda unleashed by people like Vellappally Natesan has been counterproductive. This is because unlike the southern parts of Kerala, Malabar still remains rather aloof from the divisive politics of communalism practised by some mainstream parties. Such tendencies might be there, but they remain in the periphery.

The widespread feeling that this vituperative campaign had the blessing of chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan has done some damage to the ruling front. Another factor is the tendency of indulging in right-wing Hindutva dog-whistles by some CPM leaders as well as their TV spokesmen, whose words often echo those of the RSS-Sangh Parivar voices. It is a fact that many Left spokesmen are unable to distinguish themselves from the right-wing voices on popular TV channels.

In northern Kerala, where Muslims hold significant electoral weight, Christian voters are concentrated mostly in hill pockets. Christians in the north understand that their political fortunes are tied to friendly relations with other communities, including Muslims, who form a solid bloc wherever Christians have a meaningful presence. Hence, northern Church voices tend to stay quiet on issues like ‘love jihad’ and other narratives of Muslim threat—issues that their counterparts in the south pursue relentlessly. The contrast offers a clear lesson and highlights the geographical boundaries—and limitations—of the politics of communalism.

(The writer is a senior journalist)