Trinamool stronger by default

KOLKATA: Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh had never been so important for Bengal. This time, both Trinamool Congress and Congress - the hesitant allies in Bengal - had their eyes on the UP scoresheet. And both lost out. The Congress under Rahul Gandhi ended up fourth in the UP tally, while Trinamool couldn't open its score.
Still, Trinamool has some reason to smile because Congress' drubbing means Mamata Banerjee will get more leverage at the Centre since the UPA government has no option but to depend on her.
Mamata has grand dreams of turning her regional party into a national powerhouse and had fielded 100 candidates in the UP polls. They all lost.
The Congress was playing for high stakes. Miffed over Mamata for throwing a spanner in a whole lot of important issues, from FDI in retail to the Teesta water sharing deal, Congress leaders had thought that a better performance in the UP polls would enable the leading UPA constituent to handle the "blackmailing" by some of its allies. It didn't happen.
Instead, the UP and Punjab poll results have put the Congress on a sticky wicket. With Samajwadi Party getting a clear majority in UP, it does not have to depend on the Congress lifeline that some Congressmen expected. SP will instead dictate terms for the support the party is giving to the Congress from outside. The Mulayam-Akhileshsurge has made it more difficult for the Congress to get into a hard bargain with its leading UPA ally, Trinamool. On the contrary, Mamata Banerjee will be in a better position to bring funds for cash-strapped Bengal, or else join the chorus with other regional parties in Parliament.
It is little wonder that Mamata was among the first to send a congratulatory message to Mulayam Singh Yadav in Lucknow for the Samajwadi Party landslide.
The results are not encouraging for Trinamool though. It could not get even one seat in Uttar Pradesh. In Manipur, Trinamool managed only seven after contesting 47 and will be in no position to exert any influence on the next Congress government though it is technically the second largest party.
"The results are a warning against the danger of going to the polls without sufficient organisational back-up," said Trinamool MP Sultan Ahmed. He was also upset that Mamata did not find time to go to UP for campaigning. "It was a big drawback for us that the chief minister did not find time to come for campaigning," he said.
However, the Trinamool's gaining new grounds in Manipur is a step towards getting recognized as a national party. Trinamool required 6% of the total votes cast in at least four states and should have MPs from at least three states to make the cut. "We've already gained 18% of the vote share in Manipur," Trinamool's Manipur observer Saurav Chakraborty claimed. "Our real target is 2014, to get MP seats from the north-east," a Trinamool MP pointed out.
But with the Congress' faring poorly in the hustings, Pradesh Congress leaders in Bengal will have to think twice before trying to corner Mamata. "Congress will now think very hard before ending the alliance with us. We will continue to function as the watchdog on UPA-II and protest against the anti-people policies of the Centre," said Trinamool MP Sultan Singh said.
Pradesh Congress Committee president Pradip Bhattacharya put up a brave face and insisted that the results would have no impact on the ruling alliance in the state. But some Congress leaders sounded apprehensive that the question mark on the capability of Rahul Gandhi as a leader would put the state unit on the backfoot.
The efforts for the revival of Congress in Bengal, which started during the Kolkata Municipal Corporation election in 2010, have centred around the charisma of Rahul. State Congress leaders could now feel discouraged and less inclined to challenge the charisma of Mamata immediately. Some Congress leaders were apprehensive that Trinamool would now be more emboldened in its efforts to "gobble up" Congress in Bengal.