Monsoon advances into more parts of Maharashtra; Pune onset date still uncertain

Pune: The southwest monsoon on Monday advanced into some more parts of the westcentral and eastcentral Arabian Sea, Maharashtra among other regions of the country.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials, however, said it was still too early to forecast when the seasonal rain will officially arrive in Pune.

According to IMD, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) till Monday passed through 18°N/60°E, 18°N/65°E, 18°N/70°E, Harnai in Ratnagiri district and Solapur, among other regions. The advance marks further progress of the monsoon over parts of the state, though officials indicated that its movement over Maharashtra may remain gradual over the next few days.

“There can be further advance over some more parts of Maharashtra in the next two-three days," an IMD official said. Asked if Pune could see monsoon onset in the next few days, the official said, "We cannot say right now."

The official explained that the declaration of monsoon advance beyond Kerala was based on a combination of sustained rainfall patterns and favourable wind conditions, including the presence of southwesterly winds. "Both rainfall continuity and wind patterns are monitored before declaring further progression of the monsoon," the official said.

The current weather activity over the region is being influenced by larger-scale synoptic systems, including a shear zone in the middle tropospheric levels and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the eastcentral Arabian Sea off the south Konkan coast. "Most of the rainfall we are getting over this region is mainly because of these systems," the official said.

While western parts of Maharashtra have seen monsoon progress, eastern regions are likely to wait longer. The official said that monsoon has not strengthened sufficiently over eastern parts of the country, making it difficult to assess the timeline for its advance into eastern Maharashtra, including Vidarbha.

IMD has forecast thunder showers accompanied by lightning and light rain over Pune city from June 10 to June 14.

For the state, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa from June 9 to June 10. Rainfall activity is expected to reduce to isolated to scattered showers over Konkan and Goa during June 11-14. Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are expected to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during June 9-14.

IMD has also forecast isolated thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, over Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada during June 9-10. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa and parts of Madhya Maharashtra on June 9.