Monsoon knocks on Maharashtra door, but dry-air drag threatens march inland

PUNE: Good news rolled into south Konkan on Saturday as the southwest monsoon pushed into parts of the coastal belt, bringing rain relief and raising hopes for farmers waiting to begin sowing. But forecasters warned Maharashtra's interior may have to wait longer, with dry-air hurdles threatening to slow the rainmaker's march,

While conditions remained favourable for advancement over additional parts of the state within the next 48 to 72 hours, the pace of the inland spread remains uncertain, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

GP Sharma, president, Skymet Weather, said the current advance was primarily driven by the Arabian Sea branch, which is fuelling rainfall along the west coast.

"The progress at present is largely confined to the coastline. Monsoon activity is expected to continue along the coast, with good rainfall likely over the Konkan region, including north Konkan, in the coming days," Sharma said.

The advance over the interior parts of the state is likely to be sluggish. The Ba y of Bengal branch, which typically helps monsoon penetrate deeper inland, is currently inactive, Sharma added.

Independent weather expert Abhijit Modak forecast widespread pre-monsoon thunderstorms across western Maharashtra during the next three days, particularly between Pune and Kolhapur and from Raigad to Sindhudurg. Beyond that, he sees clouds gathering over the forecast itself.

An intrusion of relatively drier air from northwest Arabian Sea and adjoining desert regions could temporarily sap monsoon momentum, Modak said. “Unless the westerly flow deepens and satisfies mandatory onset parameters, it may be premature to declare the monsoon’s arrival over Mumbai-Pune region before June 11,” he added.

That caution was echoed by Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at University of Reading in UK, who said monsoon’s advance could stall after June 8. “A significant amount of dry air is expected to enter India from northwest.

Such dry intrusions are known to obstruct monsoon progression by drying out the atmosphere and creating more stable — and thus less rainy — weather conditions,” Deoras said. Parts of Maharashtra are likely to fall in the path of this dry-air surge, he added.

Despite differing views on timing, meteorologists agreed that the next few days will be crucial as competing weather systems battle for control. Clearer signals on when monsoon will officially sweep across Mumbai, Pune and the rest of Maharashtra are expected later this week.

SW monsoon, lifeblood of the country’s farm economy, typically arrives over Kerala around June 1 before advancing north and west in phases. This year, it made landfall over Kerala on May 24, one of its earliest arrivals in recent years, and raced quickly along parts of the west coast before encountering atmospheric resistance.