Projections show no decisive wave in Kerala, narrow edge for Cong+

Thiruvananthapuram: With just four days to go for the assembly election results, exit polls on Tuesday pointed to a narrow advantage for the Congress-led UDF, suggesting that any anti-incumbency sentiment may not translate into a decisive wave but only a slender lead over the ruling LDF. The polls also indicate that the BJP-led NDA is likely to secure a foothold in the assembly.

Projections by Times Now-JVC suggest the UDF could return to power after a decade in opposition. Surveys by Axis My India, People's Pulse, CNN-News18 and P Marq echo a similar trend, with some indicating a vote share lead of around 5% for the UDF.



Despite these projections, both fronts remain confident. The LDF is hopeful of retaining power, even if narrowly, while UDF leaders predict a tally exceeding 85 seats, possibly crossing 90 if a strong wave emerges. The NDA, too, expects to improve its performance.

Axis My India's analysis points to a tight contest but gives the UDF a clear edge, projecting a 44% vote share for it, 39% for the LDF and 14% for the NDA. The UDF appears to have gained among young voters, with 51% of first-time voters backing it — up 13% from the previous election — while the LDF has seen a corresponding dip in this segment.

Seat projections vary across agencies. Times Now estimates 72-84 seats for the UDF and 52-61 for the LDF; Matrize gives 70-75 and 60-65 respectively; Vote Vibe projects 70-80 and 58-68; People's Pulse 75-85 and 55-65; and P Marq 71-79 and 62-69. Most give the NDA between one and five seats.

In 2021, the LDF broke the state's pattern of alternating govts, winning 99 seats, with the CPM securing 62. Most exit polls correctly predicted that outcome, adding a note of caution to current projections. Results will be declared on May 4, alongside those of Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.
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