Exit Poll Results 2026 Live Updates: Today's Chanakya predicts DMK+ to retain TN, big debut for TVK; close fight in Kerala

Reacting to exit poll predictions, BJP leader Brijmohan Agrawal said that with only a few days left for the final results to be declared, the overall trend has already become fairly clear, and the party remains confident about its prospects in key states.

He noted that while it would be best to wait for the official outcome, the current indications strongly suggest that the BJP is poised to come to power in Assam. Extending this confidence to West Bengal as well, he added that the patterns reflected in various exit polls point towards the BJP being in a strong position to form the government there too, reinforcing the party’s belief that it is on track for significant electoral gains.

“There isn’t much time left, just wait three more days and the results will be out. But based on current indications, it is certain that the BJP will come to power in Assam. And as reflected in the exit polls, it has also become clear that the BJP is set to form the government in West Bengal as well," he said.

Reacting to exit poll predictions, BJP leader Prem Shukla said the party expects to outperform projections in key states, particularly West Bengal and Assam. He expressed confidence that the NDA will form the government in Puducherry and see strong prospects in Tamil Nadu, while also predicting a rise in the BJP’s vote share and seat tally in Kerala.

“Compared to the exit polls, the actual results will see the BJP perform even better in West Bengal and Assam. In Puducherry, the formation of an NDA government is certain, and in Tamil Nadu as well, the prospects of an NDA government are strong. In Kerala, the BJP's seat count will increase and its vote share will see a significant rise,” he said, adding that voters in Bengal have delivered a mandate against what he termed Mamata Banerjee’s “misgovernance.”

Exit poll predictions released on Thursday by Today’s Chanakya covered the upcoming assembly results in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Kerala.

Today’s Chanakya, in its poll predictions for West Bengal, turned the current political picture on its head, giving a huge mandate to the BJP with 192 seats while pushing the 15-year-strong TMC rule into the opposition with a reduced tally of 100 seats.

BJP leader Keya Ghosh, reacting to the exit poll, asserted that the emerging trends point to the end of Mamata Banerjee’s tenure, expressing confidence that the Trinamool Congress will be voted out when results are declared on May 4.

“The trends emerging from exit polls clearly indicate that Mamata Banerjee’s exit is certain. Regardless of what the exit polls show, when the actual results are declared on 4 May, both Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress will exit. The people of Bengal have already decided that on 4 May, Mamata Banerjee will be out,” she said.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee struck a confident note ahead of the results, saying in a video message on X that the Trinamool Congress would win over 226 seats, surpassing its previous tally of 215.

The BJP, however, has made equally strong claims, with Karnataka BJP president BY Vijayendra asserting that the party is headed for a historic victory in the state and could come to power for the first time. Reacting to exit poll trends, he credited the BJP’s central leadership and grassroots cadre, expressing confidence in a strong performance not just in Bengal but also in states like Tamil Nadu.

The latest Chanakya exit poll, however, tilts the balance more decisively, projecting a clear BJP lead with a substantial seat advantage over the TMC.

Chanakya’s seat projections for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections indicate a decisive shift in the people's stance for 2026 with the BJP, estimating a whopping 192 seats (±11) in the 294-member House, comfortably above the majority mark of 148.

Even at the lower end of the BJP’s range, the party remains well above the halfway mark, pointing to a strong mandate if the projections hold.

The Trinamool Congress-led alliance is projected at 100 seats (±11), suggesting a significant setback for the ruling bloc.

Others are expected to have a marginal presence with around 2 seats (±2).

Chanakya’s vote share estimates for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections suggest a significant lead for the BJP at 48% (±3%), placing it well ahead of the ruling Trinamool Congress-led alliance at 38% (±3%).

The 10-point gap, even after accounting for the margin of error, indicates a clear advantage for the BJP in what has been a fiercely contested state.

Others are projected at 14% (±3%), which could play a role in select constituencies but is unlikely to alter the overall balance unless votes consolidate unexpectedly.

Chanakya’s seat projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections place the DMK-led alliance firmly in the lead with 125 seats (±11) in the 234-member House, comfortably above the majority mark of 118.

Actor Vijay’s TVK emerges as a significant force with 63 seats (±11), indicating a strong debut that could reshape the state’s political dynamics.

The AIADMK-led NDA alliance is projected to trail at 45 seats (±11), suggesting a distant third position in a three-cornered contest.

Others are expected to have a minimal presence with around 1 seat (±1). Even at the lower end of its range, DMK+ remains within striking distance of a majority, pointing to a likely advantage, though the margins suggest some room for shifts depending on how close contests play out.

Chanakya’s vote projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections suggest a shifting political landscape, with the DMK-led alliance in front at 39% (±3%), but facing a strong challenge from actor Vijay’s TVK, projected at 30% (±3%).

The AIADMK-led alliance trails at 27% (±3%), indicating a fragmented three-cornered contest rather than the state’s traditional bipolar fight.

The relatively close gaps, especially between DMK+ and TVK, point to a competitive race where vote splits could significantly impact seat outcomes.

With Others at 4% (±3%), the main battle appears concentrated among the three key players, and even small swings within the margin of error could reshape the final standings.

Chanakya’s seat projections for the 2026 Kerala assembly elections indicate a tightly contested race, with the Congress-led UDF slightly ahead at 69 seats (±9) in the 140-member House, just above the majority mark of 71 when accounting for the margin of error.

The ruling LDF is close behind at 64 seats (±9), making the outcome highly uncertain and sensitive to small swings in key constituencies.

The BJP-led alliance is projected to win around 7 seats (±4), which, while modest, could still influence margins in closely fought contests.

Others are expected to have little to no presence. Overall, the numbers point to a potential photo finish, where even minor shifts in vote share could decisively alter the final tally.

Chanakya’s vote share estimates for the 2026 Kerala assembly elections suggest a closely fought battle, with the Congress-led UDF marginally ahead at 40% (±3%), followed closely by the ruling LDF at 38% (±3%).

The narrow 2-point gap, well within the margin of error, indicates that the contest remains highly competitive and could tilt either way depending on last-mile swings.

The BJP-led alliance is projected at 20% (±3%), a significant share but not enough on its own to challenge the two dominant fronts in the state’s bipolar political landscape.

Others account for a minimal 2% (±1%), reinforcing the likelihood of a direct UDF-LDF fight where small shifts in vote distribution could have an outsized impact on seat outcomes.

Chanakya’s seat projection for the 2026 Assam assembly elections points to a sweeping victory for the BJP-led alliance, estimating 102 seats (±9) in the 126-member House, well above the majority mark of 64.

The Congress-led alliance is projected to lag far behind with 23 seats (±9), while Others are expected to remain marginal at around 1 seat (±1).

Even at the lower end of the BJP-led NDA, the alliance comfortably crosses the halfway mark, indicating a decisive mandate. The wide gap suggests not just a lead in vote share but an efficient conversion into seats.

Chanakya’s exit poll for the 2026 Assam assembly elections points to a strong advantage for the BJP-led alliance, projecting a vote share of 50% (±3%), which places it comfortably ahead of the Congress-led alliance at 38% (±3%).

The 12-point gap, even after accounting for the margin of error, suggests a decisive lead for the ruling bloc rather than a closely fought contest.

With Others estimated at 12% (±3%), the fragmented vote outside the two main alliances appears unlikely to significantly alter the overall balance. If these vote shares translate efficiently into seats, the BJP+ could be on track for a stable mandate, as the opposition would need a substantial consolidation of votes to close the gap.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee dismissed exit poll projections suggesting a tight contest, asserting that the Trinamool Congress will return to power with a “government of Maa, Maati, Manush.”

She expressed the rejection towards the exit poll results in a video message posted from her official handle on X.

Her remarks came after several pollsters indicated a neck-and-neck fight between the ruling TMC and the BJP. The elections, held in two phases on April 23 and April 29 across all 294 seats, recorded a voter turnout exceeding 90%, one of the highest in the state’s recent electoral history.

TVK leader K A Sengottaiyan on Thursday rejected the findings of various exit polls for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, asserting that the survey outcomes are inconsistent and fail to capture a massive groundswell of support for his party.

“He (Vijay) will win in 200 seats and he will rule Tamil Nadu. This has already been decided by the people," Sengottaiyan said.

Predicting a landslide win, the senior leader stated that the state is on the verge of a historic political shift that defies current projections.

"In the history of Tamil Nadu and the country, we have seen the Green Revolution, the White Revolution, and the Socialist Revolution. Now, the 'Whistle Revolution' of our leader Thalapathy will be known not just in Tamil Nadu, but globally. This is what is going to happen,” Sengottaiyan told reporters.

The TVK leader further noted that previous electoral exercises in regions such as Punjab and West Bengal had also seen exit polls being proven wrong by the final results.

He pointed to significant variations among current pollsters, noting that while some agencies predicted a modest performance, certain large-scale online surveys projected the party crossing the 120-seat threshold.

Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Bhowanipore candidate, Mamata Banerjee, on Wednesday levelled serious charges against central forces and poll observers, accusing them of carrying out “atrocities” across the state since the night before polling and attempting to influence the electoral process.

“I have been contesting elections since 1984. But I have never seen so much atrocities,” she said.

Claiming she remained awake through the night tracking developments, Banerjee said multiple observers and cops brought in from outside the state were pressuring local authorities and targeting Trinamool workers. “I was awake all night. Multiple observers and policemen from outside states are conducting atrocities. The observers are entering police stations and creating pressure on cops to arrest our party workers and agents,” she said.

She alleged that her party’s youth block president in Chetla was detained early Wednesday. “I went to Chetla. I didn’t go to the PS but Firhad Hakim ensured he was released,” she added.
Banerjee claimed that central forces visited ward 70 councillor Asim Bose’s house around 2 am and threatened his family. According to her, Bose’s wife was alone with their child when personnel allegedly entered, snatched her phone and warned her against allowing Bose to engage in poll activities. She also displayed a photo of an injured worker, alleging that several Trinamool supporters had been assaulted.

Describing the situation as “an atrocious election”, Banerjee accused the CRPF of overstepping its mandate.

She alleged that booths were under control of forces and that her party agents were being forced out in Hooghly, Canning. Banerjee said women and kids were subjected to lathicharge. She added some cops at Kalighat and Chetla were acting under BJP’s instructions. She alleged “direct interference” from PM Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah. “There are instructions from above.”

“But victory is near. Trinamool is winning by 2/3rd majority,” she said after casting vote. Abhishek Banerjee, TMC national general secretary, called central forces BJP’s “private army” and “a gang of licensed thugs unleashed on people of Bengal”.

Trinamool Congress (TMC) MP Dola Sen on Wednesday struck a defiant tone regarding the political landscape in West Bengal, dismissing exit poll projections as "dreams" and fiercely defending the state's record on women's safety and administrative integrity.

Speaking with ANI, Sen downplayed the surge predicted for the BJP in recent polling data, pointing toward what she described as a lack of grassroots infrastructure within the opposition. Sen claimed the BJP struggled to even field polling agents in nearly 200 out of 294 booths, suggesting their ground-level organisation is hollow.

Reminding critics of the 2021 Assembly elections, she noted that the BJP failed to cross the 100-seat mark despite high expectations. She hinted that exit poll results are often disconnected from the actual pulse of the electorate, while making a sharp accusation that "everyone has been purchased" to influence narratives.

"BJP could not give agents for almost 200 out of 294 booths... In 2021, they did not even win 100 seats... Everyone likes to dream... Everyone has been purchased," she said.

Addressing the sensitive issues of women's safety and recent controversies, Sen remained steadfast in her support of the state government's performance.

Sen offered a blunt assessment of recent flashpoints and dismissed the allegations of systemic abuse, stating that "nothing regarding women happened" in the area. While acknowledging the RG Kar tragedy as "unfortunate," she praised the state's response, challenging "double-engine" (BJP-led state and central) governments to match the speed and transparency of chief minister Mamata Banerjee's administration.

"Nothing regarding women happened in Sandeshkhali. The RG Kar incident was unfortunate. The way our CM and our government handled it, have you seen any double-engine government do the same?... Bengal is ahead in terms of women's safety and security and overall law and order.... Kolkata has received the title of safest city thrice," said Sen.

As exit polls for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections sparked political reactions, BJP leader Tamilisai Soundararajan on Wednesday said that conclusions should not be drawn until official results are declared.

"The exit polls are not exact. When the exact polls come, we can comment. I don't want to comment on it," she told ANI.

Meanwhile, AIADMK candidate from Erode East Assembly constituency Manoharan expressed confidence that his party would return to power in the state.

"AIADMK will definitely win 190 to 200 seats and form the government under the leadership of Edappadi K.Palaniswami. The projects brought by the AIADMK government have been shelved by the DMK government. We sought votes by promising that the shelved projects will be implemented as soon as the AIADMK government comes to power again," he told ANI.

Political parties across the state are reacting cautiously to exit poll projections, while the final results are awaited.

Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, Axis My India exit poll projected that Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) would get 98-120 seats in its debut election, DMK-led alliance 92-100 seats and the five-party alliance led by BJP getting 22-32 seats.

Exit polls suggest a potentially significant political shift in West Bengal, with projections indicating a hung assembly and a tight contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP. If the numbers hold, it could signal the end of Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year-long rule in the state.

In Tamil Nadu, one pollster has flagged a surprise scenario where actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could disrupt the long-standing DMK–AIADMK dominance by emerging as the single largest party. However, most projections still give the edge to the DMK-Congress alliance. In Assam, the BJP is forecast to secure a third consecutive term with a decisive lead over a weakened Congress.

Meanwhile, Kerala may witness a shift in power as the CPM-led LDF appears headed for defeat, potentially ending the Left’s sole government in the country. In Puducherry, the ruling NDA is expected to retain control with a comfortable margin over the Congress-DMK alliance. Overall, the exit polls present a mixed picture of continuity and change across regions ahead of the May 4 results.

"Under the leadership of the prime minister and home minister, and through the hard work of BJP workers, success is clear. People have embraced the BJP’s ideology and leadership. In Assam, good governance under Himanta Biswa Sarma has won strong public support, ensuring another term. In West Bengal, the BJP has risen from three seats to 77, and now looks set to form a double‑engine government. Puducherry too will see NDA return. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP’s vote share is rising, and progress is evident. Historic turnout shows people’s faith in democracy and their trust in the BJP’s leadership. This is a great victory for our workers and our leadership," he said.

"The people of Bengal have voted for development under PM Modi. The polling percentage was almost 92%, which symbolises that the people of Bengal have shown trust in PM Modi... No daughter was safe in Bengal... 4th May will be an auspicious day for Bengal," he said.

“Polling for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, held on the 23rd, has been completed. The results are set to be announced on the 4th, and they will reflect the true mood of the people. In the current scenario, there is a strong anti-incumbency sentiment among the public against the DMK government. In particular, students, workers, and government employees are expressing dissatisfaction. This sentiment has also been reflected in the voting pattern. The major reasons for the dissatisfaction with the DMK government include the spread of narcotics, deterioration of law and order, and rising prices," he said.

"As a result, people are deeply unhappy. The outcome of this situation will be clearly visible in the election results to be announced on the 4th. The prevailing public opinion is that the current government should not continue, and the results will reflect this sentiment. At the same time, the DMK is attempting to influence public perception by spreading misleading narratives under the guise of exit polls through certain television channels. However, the real sentiment of the people is different. It is evident to the public that the DMK will not return to power. Efforts are being made to create confusion using sections of the media, but these attempts will not succeed. The election results on the 4th will decisively end the DMK’s rule. The people are expected to support and establish a new government under the leadership of ‘Puratchi Thamizhar’ Edappadi K Palaniswami," he added.

"In the five state elections, the BJP and the NDA are set to form governments in four. In Kerala, the BJP’s numbers will play a key role. In Assam, the party is heading for a third term with a two‑thirds majority. In Bengal, after 15 years of TMC misrule, the BJP and NDA are projected to win with a two‑thirds majority. Tamil Nadu, too, is expected to see an NDA government. On 4 May, results will show a strong victory for the BJP and the NDA, bringing prosperity and development to these states," he said.

"What we had seen on the 23rd of April in Tamil Nadu is nothing but phenomenal. The high voter turnout is a very clear indication that the people of Tamil Nadu have decided that the DMK government should go home. It is an election for change, it's an election which is going to seat the NDA back to power in Tamil Nadu and Sri Edappadi K Palaniswami will lead Tamil Nadu with the guidance and with the assistance of the Central Government, Shri Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister, to greater glory, to regain what have lost in last five years, you know, Tamil Nadu was been suffering in terms of corruption, in terms of misgovernance, in terms of lack of law and order. And everything which was lost over the last five years will be regained. Exit polls can be taken but exit polls can never be able to 100 pc predict the real mindset of the common man. Today the common man has spoken," he said.

"Exit polls may not be perfect, but BJP and NDA expect strong results in Assam. Voters have backed the BJP for development, identity, and leadership under Narendra Modi and Himanta Biswa Sarma, giving what is set to be a historic mandate for a third term... In Bengal, too, people have voted against Mamata Banerjee’s 15 years of corruption and syndicate rule. Despite TMC’s attempts to create fear, voters came out boldly, strengthening India’s democratic process," he said.

"The people of every state across the country believe that a double-engine government will usher in a new era of development. Exit polls in Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu are suggesting the same thing," he said.

Puducherry’s 2026 assembly elections have emerged as a closely watched contest, featuring a high voter turnout of 89.83%, several tight races, and the entry of a new political player. The primary contest is between the ruling NDA, led by the AINRC–BJP alliance, and the Congress–DMK-led opposition, while Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has introduced a third angle in a number of constituencies. According to exit poll projections by People’s Pulse, the NDA holds a slight advantage with an estimated 16–19 seats in the 30-member Assembly. The Congress-led alliance is projected to win 10–12 seats, while TVK may not secure any seats, and other parties could pick up as many as two. It is important to note that exit polls are based on survey estimates and may not accurately reflect the final results, which will be announced on May 4.

"As far as exit poll results are concerned, we all know that sometimes even 60 per cent of such surveys can go wrong. However, we had expected the NDA to win in Tamil Nadu. But at least some of the exit polls are showing that the DMK alliance is gaining a majority. In Tamil Nadu, TVK, led by Vijay, is playing a very important role in this election. We don't yet know what the exact impact will be, but he is certainly eating into the votes of the DMK alliance, and possibly the AIADMK alliance as well. If the AIADMK alliance ends up with fewer seats, it would suggest that TVK has taken a significant share of the anti-establishment votes," he said.

Exit polls point to a closely fought contest in Kerala, with only a narrow gap between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

According to the poll of polls, the UDF is likely to edge past the majority mark with around 72 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the ruling LDF is projected to remain close behind with about 63 seats.

Among individual projections, Axis My India shows the widest gap, estimating 83 seats for the UDF and 55 for the LDF.

Exit polls released after voting concluded for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, indicate a projected win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

According to Chanakya Strategies, the BJP is expected to secure around 150–160 seats, while the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) is projected to win 130–140 seats in the 294-member Assembly. Other parties are estimated to pick up about 6–10 seats.

Similarly, the Matrize exit poll also points to a BJP lead, projecting 146–161 seats for the party, with the TMC likely to secure between 125 and 140 seats.

Exit polls released for the closely watched Assam elections suggest a strong advantage for the incumbent Himanta Biswa Sarma-led government, with most projections indicating a likely third consecutive term for the BJP in the tea-rich state.

The results place the Congress in a weaker position, offering little momentum to the Gaurav Gogoi-led campaign and keeping the party largely on the margins in the contest.

Overall, multiple agencies’ exit poll estimates point toward a comfortable majority for the BJP-led alliance in Assam, reinforcing the possibility of the ruling party extending its stay in power.

Exit polls released for the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections suggest that chief minister MK Stalin’s DMK-led alliance is likely to stay in power, although with a narrower margin compared to its 2021 performance. The newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by Vijay, is also appearing to make inroads into established voter bases. Across three projections, the DMK+ alliance is placed comfortably around or above the halfway mark in the 234-seat Assembly.

However, it is important to note that exit polls are only based on survey estimates and may differ significantly from the actual results, which will be declared on May 4.

The Axis My India exit poll for Kerala indicates the United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to emerge ahead with an estimated 78–90 seats. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to secure 49–62 seats, while the BJP+ is expected to remain marginal, with a possible tally of 0–3 seats, suggesting a closely watched but UDF-favouring contest.

According to the JVC exit poll, the NDA is projected to take the lead with an estimated 88–101 seats. The opposition is expected to secure between 23 and 33 seats, while smaller parties and independents may collectively account for around 2–5 seats, indicating a clear advantage for the NDA in the contest.

The People’s Pulse exit poll for Tamil Nadu indicates a strong lead for the DMK alliance (DMK+) with an estimated 125–145 seats. The AIADMK alliance (AIADMK+) is projected to follow with 65–80 seats, while the TVK is expected to make a modest impact, likely securing between 18 and 24 seats.

According to the Matrize exit poll for Kerala, the United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to emerge ahead with an estimated 70–75 seats. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to secure 60–65 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win between 3 and 5 seats, indicating a tightly contested political landscape in the state.

Exit poll projections for Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry assembly elections are expected shortly.

The second phase of the West Bengal assembly polls recorded a strong voter participation, with turnout reaching 89.99% till 5pm, according to Election Commission figures.

District-wise, Purba Bardhaman led the charts with an impressive 92.46% turnout, followed closely by Hooghly at 90.34%, Nadia at 90.28%, Howrah at 89.44%, and North 24 Parganas. South 24 Parganas also saw robust participation, registering 89.74% and 89.57% in its segments.

The unusually high turnout has prompted competing interpretations from political parties, each reading it as a favourable sign. The first phase had already set a record with 91.78% voter turnout. Following that round, the Trinamool Congress claimed it was on course to win at least 100 of the 152 seats contested, while the BJP expressed confidence that it would secure around 110 seats.

"We will, of course, retain Puducherry and Assam, but we will also form governments in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. We'll increase our vote share and have more seats or open our account in Kerala in a bigger way in this election. In the long run, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, with its growing acceptability and public faith and trust in Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is clearly the alternative to the corrupt, inept governments led by the Rahul Gandhi family, Congress Party, or the Mamata Banerjee family, Trinamool Congress, or the Stalin family, DMK. All of these are private limited companies run by these families against a strong, people-driven, worker-driven organisation like the Bharatiya Janta Party and our friends," Goyal said.

"The nature of security arrangements is not our concern. In the last election, the Trinamool Congress secured 11 out of 11 seats in Kolkata, and this time as well, it will win all 11 seats. If security is tight, then that is fine--we also want peaceful voting. However, I strongly condemn the way the Election Commission of India has deleted lakhs of votes," he said.

As polling got underway in the second phase of the West Bengal assembly elections, Dilip Ghosh, the BJP candidate from Kharagpur Sadar, said the party’s fight is not limited to winning elections but is focused on driving broader social change.

Speaking to reporters, he said their goal is to bring visible transformation in people’s lives and that the party will continue its efforts in that direction. He also voiced optimism about strong voter turnout, noting that participation has risen significantly compared to earlier levels.

Ghosh added that stricter measures by the Election Commission have boosted public confidence and encouraged more people to step out and vote.

As states await the first exit poll projections, it is important to understand their limitations. Exit polls are based on sample surveys conducted after voters leave polling stations, and while they can offer useful insights, they are not always accurate predictors of final results. Factors such as sample size, methodology, and respondent honesty can influence their reliability. In previous elections, exit polls have sometimes overestimated or underestimated party performances. Therefore, while they provide an early indication of trends, they should be interpreted with caution. The final and definitive outcome will only be known when votes are counted and officially declared.

West Bengal recorded a voter turnout of 39.97% till 11am as polling continued across 142 constituencies in the second phase of the Assembly elections According to the Election Commission, Purba Bardhaman led with 44.50% voting, followed by Hooghly at 43.12%. Meanwhile, turnout in Kolkata remained slightly lower, with Kolkata North at 38.39% and Kolkata South at 36.78%.

As West Bengal heads to vote in phase 2 on Wednesday, the Matua community might emerge as a kingmaker in this big-stakes election. In phase 2, the Motua-dominated belt of North 24 Parganas and Nadia could be the decisive factor in the big TMC vs BJP fight. Ahead of polling, a large section of the electorate, however, is unsure if it will be able to vote at all.

The uncertainty stems from the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which has led to significant deletions in Matua-heavy constituencies. In North 24 Parganas alone, around 3.25 lakh names have been struck off the voter list following the exercise.

Data from the Bongaon subdivision, a core Matua pocket, shows deletion rates ranging between 67 per cent and 88 per cent among those placed under adjudication.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday thanked voters in West Bengal for the strong turnout in the ongoing second phase of assembly elections, urging them to sustain the momentum until polling concludes.

Speaking at a public rally in Hardoi, Modi praised the electorate for actively participating in the democratic process.

"I express my gratitude to the great people of Bengal for being aware of their rights and voting in large numbers. There are still several hours left for voting to conclude. I would appeal to the people of Bengal to continue participating in this festival of democracy in the same way," he said.

The Prime Minister pointed to reports of heavy polling across constituencies, noting long queues at several polling stations and widespread visuals on social media as evidence of heightened public engagement.

"Today is also an important day in the festival of democracy. At this time, the second phase of voting is taking place in Bengal, and the reports coming in indicate that there is heavy voting in Bengal. Just like in the first phase, a large number of people are stepping out of their homes to cast their votes. Images of long queues are being widely shared on social media. In an atmosphere that, in the last 6-7 decades, was neither seen nor even imagined, voting is taking place in Bengal in a fearless environment this time. People are voting without fear. This is a sacred symbol of the Constitution of the country and of a strengthening democracy," the Prime Minister said.

Over 61 per cent of the 3.21 crore electors exercised their franchise till 1 pm of the second and final phase of polling in West Bengal amid attacks on a few candidates, while tension gripped the Bhabanipur seat briefly as Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and BJP's Suvendu Adhikari took swipes at one another in the same booth area.

Voters queued up from 7 am outside booths in Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas and Purba Bardhaman districts, which form Bengal's electoral and political core. Of the total electorate eligible to vote in this phase, 1.57 crore are women, and 792 are third-gender.

Till 1 pm, West Bengal recorded 61.11 per cent polling with Purba Bardhaman registering the highest turnout at 66.8 per cent, followed by Hooghly at 64.57 per cent and Nadia at 61.41 per cent.

Howrah registered 60.68 per cent polling, while North 24 Parganas recorded 60.18 per cent.

Kolkata North and Kolkata South recorded 60.18 per cent and 57.73 per cent turnout, respectively.

South 24 Parganas, a politically crucial district witnessing several high-profile contests, registered 58.58 per cent voting.

The first phase of polls in 152 assembly seats of West Bengal on April 23 also recorded more than 62.18 per cent polling till 1 pm.

Different polling agencies often produce different projections because they do not follow identical methodologies. They may select different polling stations, use different sample sizes, or even frame questions differently during voter interviews. Additionally, agencies vary in how they treat non-responses and how aggressively they apply weighting formulas. Even the vote-to-seat conversion models differ, leading to noticeably different predictions despite using similar raw data environments.

The Election Commission of India has barred the conduct and publication of exit polls for the ongoing Assembly elections from 7 am on April 9 until 6:30 pm on April 29.

The poll body said that any violation of this restriction would breach Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, and is punishable with up to two years of imprisonment, a fine, or both.

The restriction is aimed at ensuring that voter behaviour is not influenced while polling is still underway across states.