Tamil Nadu exit polls 2026: 3 out of 4 pollsters back Stalin return; TVK a key disruptor

NEW DELHI: Exit polls for the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly election released on Wednesday predicted that chief minister MK Stalin's DMK-led alliance is on course to retain power, though with a tighter margin than in 2021. New entrant Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has also shown signs of cutting into traditional vote bases.Three out of four projections, placed the Stalin led DMK+ comfortably near or above the halfway mark in the 234-member assembly.Note: Exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be absolutely wrong on the result day which is on May 4.According to P-Marq, the DMK+ is projected to win 122–132 seats, just around the majority mark, while the AIADMK-led alliance is seen at 87–100 seats. Vijay’s TVK is estimated to secure 10–12 seats, indicating a notable debut.Peoples Pulse offered a wider margin for the ruling alliance, projecting 125–145 seats for the DMK+, suggesting a clearer mandate. It placed the AIADMK+ significantly lower at 65–80 seats, while giving TVK a stronger presence with 18–24 seats, potentially enough to influence outcomes in closely contested constituencies.Meanwhile, Matrize's projections mirrored P-Marq closely, with the DMK+ again in the 122–132 range and the AIADMK+ at 87–100. It estimated TVK at 10–12 seats, while projecting 0–6 seats to others.The JVC exit poll, however, contradicted the other three predicting AIADMK comeback in Tamil Nadu. It projected 75-95 seats for DMK+, 128-147 for AIADMK and 8-15 for TVK.Axis MyIndia presented a sharply divergent picture, projecting a surge for TVK. It estimated 92–110 seats for the DMK+, just 22–32 for the AIADMK, and a striking 98–120 seats for Vijay’s party — suggesting a potentially disruptive, three-way contest if trends hold.For the DMK, a win within the lower end of these projections would still mark a significant political milestone, consecutive terms in a state where power has traditionally alternated between the two Dravidian majors. For the AIADMK, the numbers indicate a partial recovery from past setbacks but also predicts persistent structural and leadership challenges.The spotlight, however, is firmly on TVK. While the party’s seat projections vary widely across pollsters, even the lower estimates suggest it could impact results by dividing opposition votes, while higher projections hint at a more substantive political entry.Exit polls have historically been mixed in their accuracy in Tamil Nadu, and parties across the spectrum have urged caution, noting that final outcomes often diverge from projections.Counting will take place on May 4, when it will become clear whether the DMK has managed to hold on to power — or whether the state’s evolving political landscape delivers a more complex verdict.