Drones, geography and the missile crisis shadow: How real is the Cuba threat to the US?

Just 145 kilometers off the coast of Florida, Cuba is once again emerging at the center of US national security concerns. After the collapse of Venezuela’s regime and growing tensions in the Caribbean, US officials are portraying Havana as a potential strategic threat, accusing them to acquiring Iranian drones capable of targeting US assets near its coastline.

Tensions between the old rivals further intensified after the indictment of Raul Castro, former leader of Cuba, by the trump administration over the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft operated by the Anti-Castro group ‘Brothers to Rescue’. The move fueled the speculations that US is applying the same pressure campaign that he used again Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro.





Beyond the unfolding situations around Cuba the real question is, Does the tiny communist nation possess any actual military threat to United states?

The roots of hostility between the US and Cuba date back to 1959 Cuban revolution, led by Fidel Castro along with Che Guevara. The US-backed regime of Fulgencio Batista was overthrew in the revolution. The revolution triggers sanctions, diplomatic isolation and many covert attempts to topple the Castro government by United States.

Today, Cuba struggles with inflation, food and energy shortages, migration forcing them to rely on the support from allies such as Russia, China and Iran. Once among the strongest soviet-backed militaries in Latin America, Cuban military today lacks the capability to directly threaten United states.

According to Global firepower index: -

• Cuba has around 50,000 active personnel, and some 11 lakhs paramilitary personnel.

• Cuban Airforce has some 20 Soviet-era aircraft, only half been operational.
• The Cuban navy mainly consist of coastal patrol vessels and defensive maritime assets.
• Cuba land forces possess some 190 tanks and around 700 artillery pieces, including rocket artillery.
• Cuba spends around $ 3.3 billion on defence. US defence budget stands at around $ 900 billion.

In a direct military confrontation Cuba would be no match for the united states. So why does Washington portraying Havana as a potential security threat?

For Washington, the primary concern is not Cuba’s military strength but its geographical location. Just 145 kilometers from US mainland, any foreign military or intelligence presence in the island can pose a threat to its security.

US concerns are deeply shaped by past experience. During the cold war in 1962, Soviet union deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba, leading to the chain of events which we today calls Cuban missile crisis. The crisis brought the world on the brink of nuclear war and embedded Cuba as a potential forward operating base for rival powers to United states.

The growing allegations around Iranian drones combined with indictment of Raul Castro, revived the cold war era like tensions between the two nations. Washington actions suggest it is unwilling to allow the island to once again emerge as a potential military outpost in its backyard.

Washington is mounting pressure on Cuba with tighter economic sanctions and with increased surveillance. Fears also emerge that US is using the same pressure tactic that it used against Venezuela last year before militarily moving in the country.