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- Kerala Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: Pollsters give slight edge to UDF with 70-90 seats
THE TIMES OF INDIA | Apr 29, 2026, 20:29:34 IST
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Kerala Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: Pollsters give slight edge to UDF with 70-90 seats
Kerala’s 2026 Assembly election exit polls indicate another highly competitive battle between the ruling Left Democratic Front and the opposition United Democratic Front, with several districts showing constituency-wise variations rather than a single statewide wave. Historically, Kerala has alternated governments, but recent years have shown stronger continuity trends. That makes the current election especially significant for both fronts.
Northern Kerala is likely to shape the final outcome. Kasaragod district remains politically fragmented, with Manjeshwar emerging as one of the most unpredictable seats due to past razor-thin verdicts and BJP’s persistent presence. Kasaragod and Udma are also key battlegrounds where development, minority welfare and connectivity dominate voter priorities. In neighbouring Kannur, the LDF retains structural strength through cadre networks, but the UDF is attempting to improve its vote share in urban and semi-urban belts such as Kannur city and Thalassery.
Wayanad’s contests reflect a different social dynamic. Tribal welfare, plantation distress, tourism regulation and land rights are central issues in Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta. These constituencies often produce nuanced verdicts shaped by local leadership rather than broader ideological trends. Kozhikode district, meanwhile, remains a mixed battleground. Beypore, Kozhikode North and Kozhikode South are crucial urban seats, while Koduvally and Kunnamangalam test coalition arithmetic and community mobilization.
Malappuram continues to favour the UDF, especially the IUML, though some seats are seeing sharper competition than before. Manjeri, Perinthalmanna and Mankada remain symbolic for UDF strength, while Tanur and Thavanur are more open contests. In central Kerala, Palakkad district is important because of BJP’s attempts to expand beyond vote share into seat conversion. Thrissur, boosted by high-profile contests in recent years, may again become one of the state’s most watched districts.
The broader exit poll message is that Kerala remains deeply competitive and politically sophisticated, with voters often distinguishing between state governance, local candidate strength and coalition identity. Even small swings in a dozen constituencies could decide the final majority. As counting day approaches, all eyes remain on whether the LDF can script another historic retention or the UDF can restore the state’s traditional anti-incumbent cycle.
Northern Kerala is likely to shape the final outcome. Kasaragod district remains politically fragmented, with Manjeshwar emerging as one of the most unpredictable seats due to past razor-thin verdicts and BJP’s persistent presence. Kasaragod and Udma are also key battlegrounds where development, minority welfare and connectivity dominate voter priorities. In neighbouring Kannur, the LDF retains structural strength through cadre networks, but the UDF is attempting to improve its vote share in urban and semi-urban belts such as Kannur city and Thalassery.
Wayanad’s contests reflect a different social dynamic. Tribal welfare, plantation distress, tourism regulation and land rights are central issues in Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta. These constituencies often produce nuanced verdicts shaped by local leadership rather than broader ideological trends. Kozhikode district, meanwhile, remains a mixed battleground. Beypore, Kozhikode North and Kozhikode South are crucial urban seats, while Koduvally and Kunnamangalam test coalition arithmetic and community mobilization.
Malappuram continues to favour the UDF, especially the IUML, though some seats are seeing sharper competition than before. Manjeri, Perinthalmanna and Mankada remain symbolic for UDF strength, while Tanur and Thavanur are more open contests. In central Kerala, Palakkad district is important because of BJP’s attempts to expand beyond vote share into seat conversion. Thrissur, boosted by high-profile contests in recent years, may again become one of the state’s most watched districts.
The broader exit poll message is that Kerala remains deeply competitive and politically sophisticated, with voters often distinguishing between state governance, local candidate strength and coalition identity. Even small swings in a dozen constituencies could decide the final majority. As counting day approaches, all eyes remain on whether the LDF can script another historic retention or the UDF can restore the state’s traditional anti-incumbent cycle.
20:29 (IST) Apr 29
Puducherry Exit Poll 2026: NRC+ alliance favoured to retain power, poll of polls gives comfortable lead
Exit poll projections for the 2026 Puducherry Assembly elections indicate that the NRC+ alliance is likely to retain power in the Union Territory, with most surveys giving the ruling bloc a clear edge over the Congress-led opposition.
A consolidated poll of polls projects the NRC+ alliance at 19 seats in the 30-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 16. The CONG+ alliance is estimated at 8 seats, while TVK+ is projected to win 2 seats and Others around 1 seat.
Among individual pollsters, Praja Poll gave the strongest projection for the NRC+ alliance, estimating 19 to 25 seats, while placing Congress+ at 6 to 10 seats. Kamakhya Analytics also forecast a strong NRC+ performance with 17 to 24 seats, Congress+ at 4 to 7, TVK+ at 1 to 2, and Others at 0 to 1.
Axis My India predicted a more balanced contest but still favoured the ruling bloc, giving NRC+ 16 to 20 seats, Congress+ 6 to 8, TVK+ 2 to 4, and Others 1 to 3.
Peoples Pulse estimated NRC+ at 16 to 19 seats and Congress+ at 10 to 12 seats, suggesting a stronger opposition challenge, while JVC projected NRC+ at 15 to 17 seats and Congress+ at 11 to 13 seats.
The numbers suggest the ruling alliance remains ahead, though the opposition could improve its tally compared to the previous election. The emergence of TVK+ in some projections also points to a possible third-force presence in select constituencies.
The final results, to be declared on May 4, will decide whether the NRC+ alliance secures another term or whether the Congress-led bloc stages a comeback in Puducherry.
20:26 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala Exit Poll 2026: UDF holds edge in poll of polls, tight contest with LDF
Exit poll projections for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections suggest the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has a narrow advantage over the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), though the contest remains closely fought across the state.
A consolidated poll of polls places the UDF at 72 seats in the 140-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 71. The LDF is projected at 63 seats, indicating a drop from its dominant 2021 performance. The BJP is estimated to win 3 seats, while Others are projected at 2 seats.
Among individual pollsters, My Axis India gave the strongest projection for the UDF with 83 seats, while placing the LDF at 55 and BJP at 2. Vote Vibe also predicted a UDF lead with 75 seats, compared to 63 for the LDF.
Matrize projected a closer race, giving the UDF 71 seats, exactly at the majority mark, while the LDF was estimated at 62 and BJP at 4.
However, PMARQ stood out as the only major poll to predict an LDF comeback, projecting 75 seats for the ruling front and 62 for the UDF.
The mixed projections underline Kerala’s reputation for highly competitive bipolar politics, where small swings in key constituencies often decide the final outcome. The BJP’s projected presence in a few seats could also become significant in close contests.
Kerala voted in a single phase, and the results will be declared on May 4. The final verdict will determine whether the LDF scripts another historic return or the UDF restores the state’s traditional cycle of alternation in power.
A consolidated poll of polls places the UDF at 72 seats in the 140-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 71. The LDF is projected at 63 seats, indicating a drop from its dominant 2021 performance. The BJP is estimated to win 3 seats, while Others are projected at 2 seats.
Among individual pollsters, My Axis India gave the strongest projection for the UDF with 83 seats, while placing the LDF at 55 and BJP at 2. Vote Vibe also predicted a UDF lead with 75 seats, compared to 63 for the LDF.
Matrize projected a closer race, giving the UDF 71 seats, exactly at the majority mark, while the LDF was estimated at 62 and BJP at 4.
However, PMARQ stood out as the only major poll to predict an LDF comeback, projecting 75 seats for the ruling front and 62 for the UDF.
The mixed projections underline Kerala’s reputation for highly competitive bipolar politics, where small swings in key constituencies often decide the final outcome. The BJP’s projected presence in a few seats could also become significant in close contests.
Kerala voted in a single phase, and the results will be declared on May 4. The final verdict will determine whether the LDF scripts another historic return or the UDF restores the state’s traditional cycle of alternation in power.
20:19 (IST) Apr 29
2026 Kerela Assembly Elections: Exit Poll
Exit poll projections for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections indicate a likely victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), signalling a potential return to power after its setback in 2021. Axis My India projected the UDF winning 78 to 90 seats, while People's Pulse estimated 75 to 85 seats and JVC forecast 72 to 84 seats in the 140-member House. Most polls placed the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) well behind, with the BJP-led NDA expected to remain marginal. Kerala voted in a single phase on April 9 with 78.27 percent turnout. Results will be declared on May 4.
20:13 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Exit polls project victory of Congress-led UDF in Keralam
Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is poised to win Keralam assembly polls, according to exit poll projections on Wednesday.
Axis My India projected a comfortable majority for UDF and said it will win 78 to 90 seats in the 140-member assembly. It said the Left Democratic Front would win 49 to 62 seats and the BJP-led NDA zero to three seats.
According to People's Pulse, the ruling LDF is poised to win 55 to 60 seats, UDF 75 to 85 seats and NDA 0-3 seats.
JVC projected that UDF would win with 72 to 84 seats, LDF 52-60 seats and BJP-led NDA three to eight seats.
Keralam went to the polls in a single phase on April 9 and the voter turnout was 78.27 per cent.
The LDF had won the 2021 polls and broken the trend of the state having a change of government every five years. The last polls were a setback for UDF and exit poll predictions will be music to the ears of the leaders of the Congress-led alliance.
LDF had won 99 out of 140 seats in the 2021 polls with CPI-M winning 62. Pinarayi Vijayan became Chief Minister for another term.
The results of Keralam elections will be out on May 4, along with the outcome of elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.
The exit poll projections were released after the second phase of polling in West Bengal. Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to the polls on April 9 and Tamil Nadu on April 23. West Bengal went to the polls in two phases on April 23 and April 29.
18:26 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Manjeshwar emerges as northern Kerala’s closest battle
Manjeshwar is once again among Kerala’s most closely watched constituencies, with exit poll trends pointing to a razor-tight contest. Located in Kasaragod district near the Karnataka border, the seat has a multilingual electorate and a socially diverse voter base that often produces unpredictable results. Historically, the constituency has seen intense competition between the IUML-led UDF and BJP, while the LDF remains a relevant player. Border connectivity, trade, minority outreach, employment and infrastructure dominated campaigning this year. Because Manjeshwar often reflects the political mood of northern Kerala, its result could become one of the earliest indicators of whether the UDF has consolidated support, BJP has expanded, or the LDF has held ground.
18:25 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Manjeshwar emerges as northern Kerala’s closest battle
Manjeshwar is once again among Kerala’s most closely watched constituencies, with exit poll trends pointing to a razor-tight contest. Located in Kasaragod district near the Karnataka border, the seat has a multilingual electorate and a socially diverse voter base that often produces unpredictable results. Historically, the constituency has seen intense competition between the IUML-led UDF and BJP, while the LDF remains a relevant player. Border connectivity, trade, minority outreach, employment and infrastructure dominated campaigning this year. Because Manjeshwar often reflects the political mood of northern Kerala, its result could become one of the earliest indicators of whether the UDF has consolidated support, BJP has expanded, or the LDF has held ground.
17:45 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Final result may depend on narrow margins statewide
The broader takeaway from Kerala’s exit poll trends is that the state remains highly competitive, with no alliance appearing dominant across every region. Instead of a sweeping wave, the election seems likely to be decided by close races in a dozen or more constituencies. Narrow margins in northern battlegrounds, central swing seats and urban pockets could collectively determine who forms the next government. Postal ballots and late counting swings may also become crucial if the final tally is tight. Kerala’s politically aware electorate often differentiates between state governance, local candidates and alliance identity, which can produce mixed regional outcomes. The central question now is whether the LDF can script another historic retention of power or whether the UDF can restore Kerala’s traditional anti-incumbency cycle.
17:13 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Thrissur may become central Kerala showpiece battle
Thrissur has emerged as one of Kerala’s most politically symbolic districts, attracting attention because of its competitive three-way contests and strategic importance in central Kerala. Exit polls indicate a tight race involving the UDF, LDF and BJP, making the district one of the most closely watched in the state. Thrissur city’s urban electorate often weighs issues such as civic planning, traffic, business growth and employment, while surrounding areas bring in agricultural and semi-rural concerns. The district’s famous cultural identity and festival economy also make development and tourism recurring themes. In recent years, Thrissur has become a focal point for parties seeking to make broader statements beyond seat numbers. A win here carries symbolic momentum, while a strong second-place showing can also shape future political narratives.
16:13 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Palakkad remains key test for BJP expansion
Palakkad district remains one of the most important regions for assessing the BJP’s prospects in Kerala. The constituency has witnessed intense three-way battles in recent elections, making it a strategic seat for all major fronts. Exit polls suggest another competitive race with no clear runaway advantage. Urban infrastructure, transport, industrial growth, youth employment and development remain central voter concerns. For the BJP, Palakkad represents an opportunity to convert vote share into actual seat gains. For the UDF and LDF, holding or winning the constituency would be significant in preventing rival expansion. Because Palakkad lies near the Tamil Nadu border and has a mix of urban and semi-rural voters, its electoral behaviour is often closely studied. Results here may become one of the clearest indicators of whether the BJP has expanded beyond symbolic presence in Kerala politics.
15:54 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Tanur and Thavanur could deliver surprises
Tanur and Thavanur are being viewed as two of the more fluid constituencies in Kerala, where outcomes are harder to predict than in traditional strongholds. Exit poll signals suggest close fights in both seats, with smaller swings likely to determine the final winners. Independent candidates, personal vote banks, community equations and candidate reputation have historically played an outsized role here. Fisheries, river management, flood mitigation, infrastructure and livelihood concerns remain among the top local issues. Because these constituencies do not always follow broader statewide patterns, they are often watched for surprise results. Strong performances by any front here could signal the importance of local leadership over party labels. On counting day, Tanur and Thavanur may become key examples of Kerala’s constituency-specific political behaviour.
15:21 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Malappuram likely to remain UDF heartland
Malappuram district continues to appear favourable for the UDF, particularly the Indian Union Muslim League, which has historically maintained deep organisational roots in the region. Exit poll readings suggest constituencies such as Manjeri, Perinthalmanna, Mankada and Malappuram may remain key bastions for the alliance. However, the LDF is believed to have improved its presence in certain pockets, potentially tightening margins in some seats. Voter priorities in the district include education, healthcare, infrastructure, overseas employment opportunities and welfare schemes. Malappuram is often politically significant because large margins here can substantially influence statewide seat tallies. If the UDF performs strongly, it would reinforce its traditional dominance in the district. If the LDF narrows gaps or secures unexpected gains, it could indicate a more competitive electoral landscape than previous elections.
15:04 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala Opinion Poll Result 2026: Kozhikode urban seats may influence statewide narrative
Kozhikode district is emerging as one of Kerala’s most important battlegrounds, particularly through urban constituencies such as Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South and Beypore. Exit polls indicate competitive races shaped by city-centric issues including infrastructure, traffic congestion, waste management, housing, employment and coastal development. Beypore remains politically significant after high-profile representation in recent years, while Kozhikode North and South are key tests of urban voting behaviour. Constituencies such as Koduvally and Kunnamangalam add another layer of complexity through coalition arithmetic and shifting community alliances. Urban voters in Kerala often evaluate governance performance differently from rural regions, making Kozhikode’s results especially important in reading broader sentiment. Strong performances by either front in these constituencies could help shape the statewide narrative on whether cities prefer continuity or are leaning toward change.
15:04 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Wayanad contests shaped by tribal and agrarian issues
Wayanad’s three Assembly constituencies — Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta — are drawing strong attention in exit poll discussions because of their distinct social and economic profile. The district’s politics are heavily influenced by tribal welfare, plantation distress, land ownership disputes, tourism regulation and environmental concerns. Early trends suggest close contests between the UDF and LDF, while the BJP is attempting to improve its vote share in select pockets. Mananthavady remains particularly significant due to its large tribal population, while Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta feature mixed rural-urban electorates. Wayanad also carries symbolic importance in national politics, which has increased interest in its Assembly results. Local leadership, candidate credibility and issue-based voting often matter more here than broader ideological narratives. Results from Wayanad may offer insight into how agrarian and tribal voters have responded to competing promises.
15:04 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Kannur fortress faces renewed opposition challenge
Kannur, long considered one of the strongest Left bastions in Kerala, is witnessing a more competitive election than in some previous cycles. Constituencies such as Payyanur, Kalliasseri and Taliparamba are still seen as favourable terrain for the LDF due to deep organisational strength and cadre presence. However, the UDF is aiming to reduce margins and mount serious challenges in urban and semi-urban pockets including Kannur city and Thalassery. Exit poll trends suggest the Left may remain ahead overall in the district, but several seats could witness sharper contests than expected. Voters across Kannur have focused on issues such as employment generation, trade, road development, civic amenities and public services. The district carries symbolic importance in Kerala politics because of its ideological history and strong political mobilisation. Any erosion in traditional Left margins here would be closely scrutinised as a sign of shifting ground.
15:04 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Kasaragod seat reflects border district dynamics
Kasaragod constituency remains one of the most politically significant seats in northern Kerala because of its unique demographic, linguistic and geographic character. Located near the Karnataka border, the constituency blends coastal communities, urban voters and rural settlements, each with differing priorities. Exit poll inputs suggest a competitive race among the UDF, LDF and BJP, with no side enjoying an overwhelming edge. Development issues such as road connectivity, railway expansion, healthcare access, education facilities and employment opportunities are expected to shape voter decisions. Minority welfare and regional representation also remain influential factors in this district. Kasaragod has often served as a barometer for how alliances perform in Kerala’s northern belt. If the LDF manages to hold ground here, it could signal resilience in the region. A UDF gain may indicate revival, while a stronger BJP showing would be closely analysed for its long-term implications.
15:04 (IST) Apr 29
Kerala exit poll live: Manjeshwar emerges as northern Kerala’s closest contest
Manjeshwar is once again attracting statewide attention as one of Kerala’s most unpredictable and high-stakes constituencies. Situated along the Karnataka border, the seat has a multilingual electorate comprising Malayalam, Kannada, Tulu and Urdu-speaking communities, making local equations highly complex. In previous elections, Manjeshwar witnessed razor-thin victory margins, turning every vote into a crucial factor. Early exit poll signals indicate another tight three-cornered contest involving the UDF, BJP and LDF. Border trade, transport links, youth employment, minority outreach and infrastructure remain among the most prominent campaign issues. The BJP has historically viewed the seat as one of its best opportunities in Kerala, while the UDF aims to retain its traditional support base and the LDF seeks to expand its footprint. Because results from Manjeshwar often reflect broader trends in northern Kerala, counting day figures from this constituency are expected to be watched closely as an early indicator of the region’s political mood.
Disclaimer: This Data is provided by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) | MyNeta and sourced from election affidavits available in the public domain of the Election Commission of India.
Kerala’s 2026 Assembly election exit polls point to another fiercely contested battle between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF), with no clear statewide wave visible across early trends. Instead, constituency-level signals suggest a fragmented and competitive contest where regional strengths, local candidates and micro-issues may decide the final outcome. The state’s political history of alternating governments adds significance to this election, though the LDF is aiming to retain power once again after breaking that pattern in the previous cycle.
Northern Kerala is expected to play a decisive role. In Kasaragod district, Manjeshwar remains one of the most watched constituencies due to its history of razor-thin margins and three-way contests involving the UDF, BJP and LDF. Kasaragod and Udma are also seen as important battlegrounds where border connectivity, jobs and minority welfare have shaped voter sentiment. In Kannur, traditionally a Left bastion, the LDF appears structurally strong, but the UDF is hoping to improve its performance in urban and semi-urban segments such as Kannur city and Thalassery.
Wayanad presents a different electoral picture, where tribal welfare, plantation distress, land rights and tourism dominate the agenda in Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta. Kozhikode district could also influence the broader state narrative, especially through urban seats like Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South and Beypore. Constituencies such as Koduvally and Kunnamangalam remain important for testing coalition arithmetic and shifting social alliances.
Malappuram continues to favour the UDF, especially the IUML, with strong prospects in seats like Manjeri, Perinthalmanna, Mankada and Malappuram. However, constituencies such as Tanur and Thavanur are being viewed as more competitive and capable of producing surprises. In central Kerala, Palakkad and Thrissur remain key districts for measuring BJP growth, UDF recovery efforts and LDF resilience.
The larger message from exit polls is that Kerala remains politically sophisticated, with voters often distinguishing between state governance, local representation and alliance identity. Even modest swings in a dozen closely fought constituencies could decide the majority. As counting day approaches, the key question remains whether the LDF can script another historic return or the UDF can restore Kerala’s traditional cycle of change.
Northern Kerala is expected to play a decisive role. In Kasaragod district, Manjeshwar remains one of the most watched constituencies due to its history of razor-thin margins and three-way contests involving the UDF, BJP and LDF. Kasaragod and Udma are also seen as important battlegrounds where border connectivity, jobs and minority welfare have shaped voter sentiment. In Kannur, traditionally a Left bastion, the LDF appears structurally strong, but the UDF is hoping to improve its performance in urban and semi-urban segments such as Kannur city and Thalassery.
Wayanad presents a different electoral picture, where tribal welfare, plantation distress, land rights and tourism dominate the agenda in Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta. Kozhikode district could also influence the broader state narrative, especially through urban seats like Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South and Beypore. Constituencies such as Koduvally and Kunnamangalam remain important for testing coalition arithmetic and shifting social alliances.
Malappuram continues to favour the UDF, especially the IUML, with strong prospects in seats like Manjeri, Perinthalmanna, Mankada and Malappuram. However, constituencies such as Tanur and Thavanur are being viewed as more competitive and capable of producing surprises. In central Kerala, Palakkad and Thrissur remain key districts for measuring BJP growth, UDF recovery efforts and LDF resilience.
The larger message from exit polls is that Kerala remains politically sophisticated, with voters often distinguishing between state governance, local representation and alliance identity. Even modest swings in a dozen closely fought constituencies could decide the majority. As counting day approaches, the key question remains whether the LDF can script another historic return or the UDF can restore Kerala’s traditional cycle of change.
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