BJP’s problem: Time for change

the bjp's debacle in up and uttaranchal has proved once again that the loyalty of its voters cannot be taken for granted. if the seats of the two assemblies and the party positions in them are combined, the bsp and the congress, followed by the sp, emerge as the real gainers. in terms of percentage representation in the assemblies, the bsp raised it from 15 per cent to 22, while the congress from 8 per cent to 13.the corresponding figures for sp are 25 and 30. thus, while all three gained, the bjp lost sizably. from about 41 per cent in undivided up, it barely managed about 27 per cent, that too after adding its allies. how does one explain the rout of this 'party with a difference'? the caste arithmetic theory provides only a partial answer, if any. the real causes are, one, that the bjp could not appreciate the impact of modernity, which was making people impatient for palpable results, and two, it continued to believe that for indians, caste and religious considerations received precedence over their developmental needs. consequently, it could neither read the real meaning of the creation of three new states — although it supported their creation — nor throw off the hindutva baggage, which it knew had become a liability. behind the creation of uttaranchal, jharkhand and chhattisgarh, there was an acute sense of relative deprivation, not ethnicity. similarly, no hindu required vhp's homily to be proud of his faith. for most of them, a ram temple at ayodhya was okay, not something they could not live without — particularly if it consumed so much of the states' energy, which could have otherwise been productively used. it is a pity that the bjp top brass understood it but could not rise to the occasion. following the godhra incident, home minister l k advani now talks of leashing the vhp, but it may be too late. post 9/11 the world has changed which means a no-nonsense approach to religious extremism. the bjp's turning a blind eye to the hindutva brigades' christian bashing or its rowdy acts against valentine day enthusiasts have evidently not enthused voters. making a bonfire of valentine cards may make a front-page story in a newspaper but cannot gloss the fact that the same newspaper carries four pages of classified valentine messages. the party has lost touch with the reality of our youths. when conventional courses like history, sociology and political science are going abegging in universities for enrolment as most students are opting for management and technical courses, the party is wasting time rewriting indian history and introducing astrology courses. it is anachronism par excellence. if the bjp wants to regain its initiative it would have to change its rhetoric first. but the problem is that when a leopard changes its stripes, it does not remain a leopard. and that is the bjp's predicament. (the author is with the indian council for social science research)